Good banter. But Q4’23 was when OAI launched, so I think that was a pretty meaningful catalyst to jolt the market into a different mode of thinking and risk appetite. Feel like we have quite the opposite situation in AI. If anything we need a recession scare to get the Fed to cut to bring down the fiscal burden and tame the long end.
10Y 5%, horrific sentiment on duration, everyone saying it’s all fiscal & debt issues (had zero to do with that), moment oil topped, 10Y followed shortly after, some attribution to Yellen sure (probably see same with Bessent in November @ QRA) but a lot had to do with oil; & then a big rotation into year-end on the notion of all the stimulative measures from just oil down / bonds up and dollar up as hikes get priced out
The only way to fix this is through a AI bubble pop. The only instance where Fed can cut rates, which is the most appropriate thing to do in the context of the govts capital structure.
The Fed dual mandate is shifting. Used to be “low inflation and full employment”. The latter is now taken as a given in Fed comments. Dual mandate will shift to “low inflation and interest expense management”, though the two of them will always be in tension.
The Fed dual mandate is shifting. Used to be “low inflation and full employment”. The latter is now taken as a given in Fed comments. Dual mandate will shift to “low inflation and interest expense management”, though the two of them will always be in tension.
@market_sleuth He’s been trying to get folks to convince market yields up bc growth up. Could be true but then rates gotta go up bc inflation is up. And the merry go round goes…