SoonFound Analytics

Alpha Hunter for Commodities. Focus: Gas/LNG
Narrative-neutral but data-driven.
Looking for the "SoonFound" insights left behind by the consensus. 📉🚢🌍

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

What happened in LNG market recently?

🔥 BULLISH

* EU proposes widening Russia sanctions to LNG shipping & capping output 🚫🇷🇺

* Storms halt loadings at NW Shelf, Pluto, and Wheatstone (AU) 🌀

* Trinidad’s Atlantic LNG Train 4 shuts down for 50-day maintenance (May-June)

* New Zealand plans to begin LNG imports from 2027 🇳🇿

* Costa Azul startup delayed to Q3 2026 on quality concerns 🛠️

* Spot buying demand emerging from South Korea and Thailand 🌏

* Petronet eyes 5mtpa expansion completion by end of March 🇮🇳

⚖️ NEUTRAL

* Conoco confirms Qatar NFE on track for H2 2026 startup 🇶🇦

* Stade terminal (Germany) delayed to 2029 🇩🇪

📉 BEARISH

* Congo successfully exports maiden cargo 🇨🇬

* Japan’s LDP win clears political path for faster nuclear push ⚛️

* Ichthys booster compressor online H2 2026 (expect +10 cargoes/mo) 🚢

* Turkey gas burn 40% lower y/y due to strong hydro stocks 💧

#LNG #NaturalGas #EnergyTwitter #JKM #TTF #ongt

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Now #TTF sum/winter flat, so we can declare winter is over now ? Should sum/winter go negative ?#jkm #lng #natgas #ongt

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Noticed #TTF front lifted but backend sold this morning. So the panic about summer refilling is over? #jkm #ongt #lng

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

What happened in LNG market last week? #lng #jkm #ttf #natgas #ongt

📈 Bullish
• US cold snap cuts feedgas
• Egypt ships second Jan cargo.
• LNG Canada and Australian cargos divert away from Asia
• Pluto 2 first cargo now Q4 ’26 (previously H2 26).
• Argentina allow private LNG imports
• India BPCL seeks 68 cargos under 10-year deal (4 cargos per year for first 3 years)
• Australia 2026 maintenance see around 1.9 mt capacity reduction.
• US manufacturers urge DOE to halt spot exports — Raises uncertainty around future US flexibility.

⚖️ Neutral
• EU finalises 2027 Russian gas ban — Well‑telegraphed, minimal short‑term impact.
• Mozambique LNG restarts after 5 years — Future supply boost but slow ramp expected.

📉 Bearish
• Second Arc7 ready to load Arctic LNG‑2 — Adds incremental Russian supply despite sanctions headwinds.
• Kansai sells 7 cargos (Apr ’26–Feb ’27) — Soft regional demand signals in Japan.
• South Korea ends fuel‑tax cuts — Higher power costs could temper LNG burn.

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

So far the recovery in production is faster than the feedgas rampup #natgas #ttf #lng #lng #ongt

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Don’t think the shipping capacity is the main bottleneck for Arctic 2 anymore. It’s probably more important to see how much Beihai can take. Given its high inventory, either Russia needs to give a much bigger discount to help sendout or PipeChina designate another terminal for Russian cargoes.

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Even Australian cargo is being diverted to Europe!😱😱. If Atlantic basin supply can’t meet refilling demand for the summer, basis needs to incentivise the cross basin flow. Do you think TTF Sum26 at 30 is enough?….if we need to pull PB cargoes, TTF shot up or JKM collapse first? #lng #ttf #jkm #natgas #ongt

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

US Northeast spot #natgas price shoot over $100 !!! #ttf #jkm #lng That’s about the peak of TTF during the Ukraine crisis….. the profits made in LNG exports not really benefit US people

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy Potential storage limits in Europe but there is plenty of storage in China… arbs needs to open in 2027, but probably needs FP to drop a lot more for China to mop up the excess

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

There is one LNG Canada cargo diverted mid-Pacific away from Asia. Probably transit through Panama to either US or Europe

[TheLNGAnalyst @lng_the]

In a interesting and rationale twist LNG cargoes are turning into US regas terminal and to Canada to help deal with the current cold snap in North America #LNG #Gas #TTF #JKM #ONGT #OOTT #Brent #Oil

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

What happened in LNG last week? #ttf #jkm #lng #natgas #ongt #oott

📈 Bullish:
• Cove Point feedgas reduced as Elba Island LNG reinject gas back to the grid. After low temperature raised local gas hub prices above fob LNG value
• Japan shut two nuclear reactors for maintenance (1.7 GW)
• Severe cold snap in Japan and China. Japan Power price rise although China LNG price stable.
• Beihai not recived Artcic 2 for more than 2 weeks
• China commissions 843 MW Anji No.2 gas turbine unit.

⚖️ Neutral:
• Uniper seeks revised regulation for supply security
• Japan's general election could see shift in nuclear policy

📉 Bearish:
• Vessel heading to Congo FLNG for first cargo in Feb. • Paskistan LNG for Power generation falled 9% y/y in H2 2025
• Turkey gas-fired installed capacity down 772 MW y/y. With 1.4GW Akkuyu nuclear expect to start from April.
• Nigeria LNG feedgas capacity boost with new project online.

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Noticed #TTF front lifted but backend sold this morning. So the panic about summer refilling is over? #jkm #ongt #lng

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Storm Uri in 2021 knocked off over 20bcfd production…. How much freeze off impact should we expect this time? #natgas

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

@lng_the You mean winter26 right? It’s going to be a bet on when EU starts intervention

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Japan’s general election on Feb 8th could see another shift in its nuclear strategy. Newly formed CRA would be bullish long term LNG demand. #ttf #jkm #natgas #ongt

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

A lot of tropical activities near Australia….wouldn’t be surprised to see some LNG exports getting affected in the next two weeks. #jkm #LNG #TTF #ongt

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

With ongoing Greenland drama….I suspect China/Russia could fast forward the progress on POS2.#lng #jkm #ttf #ongt

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🧊🚢 Russia is pushing LNG east via the Northern Sea Route to cut delivery times to Asia.

Compared to the Suez route, Arctic shipping:
• Shortens voyages materially
• Lowers fuel and shipping costs
• Bypasses traditional chokepoints

The Arctic is becoming an energy corridor.

Who benefits most ?

Full analysis: why #Trump's NATO tariffs created a $9B opportunity in the comments👇

#LNG #Arctic #Shipping #Energy #Geopolitics #oott

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

A reason to be bullish on oil, writes @ericnuttall

China is buying oil to fill its strategic reserve.

With ~280MM bbl of new capacity coming in 2026 and non-OPEC supply likely peaking this year, the window for cheap stockpiling may be closing.

#OilMarkets #China #SPR #EnergySecurity #Crudeoil

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

Spot price for NE US went above FOB LNG value…seeing reduced feedgas into Cove Point. Should support near term bullish sentiment on European gas. #natgas #lng #ttf #jkm #ongt

[SoonFound Analytics @SoonFoundLTD]

@lng_the 1.36GW nuclear

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

Saputra et al. on the Marcellus (I have worked with him & he is top-shelf) @acranberg

You can hold ~25 Bcf/d for a few more years by burning through core inventory.

After that, even faster drilling and pushing into noncore/outer areas doesn’t stop terminal decline.

Physics wins.

https://t.co/qy6ErMiyH8

#Marcellus #ShaleGas #NatGas #EUR #Depletion #Energy #Permian #Haynesville #EIA #oilandgas