I was a vocal, raging Gold bull since the $2k breakout in 2024, but it's important to lose the bias once a move has come to an end.
The first phase of the gold bull peaked with the blow off move in Jan. This remains a rebase period. $3,500-$4,000 is the range to accumulate again.
sometimes people ask me for advice in investing and i tell them to unlearn everything they know about diversification if they want to make money because 1% on a 10x is going to make them 10%, which is not how you get rich
for one piece in particular the pop counts are low.
all the best hits have psa pop counts anywhere from 500-2000 or so MAX, on ebay you generally only see a handful of these cards get listed weekly maybe like 3-6 or so listed per week.
genuinely think the demand is too high and supply is too low and it really doesnt take much to send them so much higher.
its especially prevalent in one piece because the rare cards are actually super rare, whereas pokemon for instance has popcounts up to 20,000+ for the top hits especially in modern sets.
I think the most likely scenario is that BTC chops sideways for the next few months.
As much as I'd love to see $BTC V-shape recover, that's not something we've historically seen before.
In previous bear market cycles, the market has typically spent time consolidating and ranging before a true trend reversal takes hold.
So, pumps are likely shallow for now. Take that into consideration.
So just got off a call with @bowtiedbrazil and I want to share my learnings and takeaways with yall
I know I know I am super generous as always
The call was about a new venture we are putting together and I think this one is going to be massive
We are entering the wellness and longevity space
But not the soft version
Not the cold plunge and infrared sauna version that every divorced 41 year old in Austin is already running
We are going premium
We are also going deeply AI-native
We will get to the AI
The brand is built around the four founding partners
Each one has a verified Twitter following north of 80 thousand
Combined they have written zero books and sold 14 thousand PDFs
Their qualifications include a personal training certificate from a website that no longer exists, two ayahuasca retreats in Costa Rica, a brief stint at a hedge fund none of them will name, and one of them claims to have been in special forces in a country he will not specify
When pressed on which country he refers only to The Region
The Region is not a country
One of them was on a podcast once
The podcast had 47 listeners
We have been describing this on the deck as Media Presence
One of them once had a tweet quote tweeted by Andrew Tate
The tweet has since been deleted by both parties
We are also describing this as Media Presence
All four founders have shaved their heads
This was non negotiable per the brand consultant
Our research indicates that high performing men respond optimally to being screamed at by bald alpha males
We are not entirely sure where this research was conducted
Tanner the first cited a TikTok
Three of the founders were already balding
The fourth was emotional about it
He has framed his hair in a small reliquary in the lobby
We have framed this on the deck as Founder Commitment To The Methodology
None of the founders actually write their own tweets anymore
The tweets are written by an agent we built called PROPHET which is trained on the founders’ historical posts
PROPHET produces approximately 400 tweets per day across the four founder accounts
The founders have not read any of them
PROPHET has accidentally announced three product launches that do not exist
We are now building those products
PROPHET is considered our most successful product strategy lead
We feel this gives us unparalleled credibility in the space
The flagship product is a 47 thousand dollar annual membership called The Apex Protocol
The protocol is delivered at our network of immersion campuses
Our campuses are housed at decommissioned facilities we acquired through a partner who works with the General Services Administration
We have not actually met this partner
He communicates exclusively through a Signal account that has no profile picture
His display name is just three crescent moon emojis
He has so far delivered three facilities and we have not asked questions
When we asked how the facilities were obtained he sent the eye emoji and went offline for six weeks
The deck refers to the campuses as Sovereign Performance Centers
The lease documents refer to them as Former Strategic Detention Sites
One facility’s lease is signed by a person named Vladimir whose last name has 41 letters
One facility’s lease is in a language none of us speak
One facility does not have a lease and we have agreed to stop asking about it
One of the facilities still has signage in Cyrillic that we have decided to leave up as a design choice
One of the facilities has signage in a script that linguists have been unable to identify
We have framed this script and hung it in the lobby as art
We are leaning into the heritage of these properties
The fencing stays
The lighting stays
The chair in room 14 stays
The thing in the basement stays
We have agreed not to go in the basement
The architectural choices made by the previous occupants are described in our marketing as Brutalist Intentionality
Our flagship location in an undisclosed part of eastern Europe is what we are calling The Crucible
The Crucible is technically located in a country that has not formally acknowledged its existence to the international community
The Crucible is also not formally acknowledged by the country that contains it
This is a mutual arrangement
We feel this builds character
The methodology is based on 14 years of combined experience and approximately 90 minutes of reading
We have synthesized the wisdom of stoicism, the Navy SEAL ethos, ancestral health, biohacking, manifestation, a Joe Rogan episode from 2019 about elk meat, a 4chan post one of the founders read in 2017 that he still thinks about, and one fortune cookie
The fortune cookie said You Will Find Success In A Surprising Place
We have framed it
We are calling it Glorious Unified Longevity Architecture for Generational Excellence and Xenith Performance
GULAGX for short
We are aware Xenith is not a word
We have decided this is fine and our brand consultant who is one of the founders’ girlfriends has signed off
Her qualification is that she has an Instagram aesthetic
We have already trademarked GULAGX in Wyoming
We have also trademarked it in the Marshall Islands as a backup
We have also trademarked it in a third jurisdiction whose name we are not going to write down
In our member communications we refer to GULAGX exclusively by its full name
In internal documents we use the acronym
In one early draft of the website we accidentally referred to the program as simply the GULAG which was caught by our legal team and corrected before launch
In a second draft we accidentally referred to it as the GULAG again
In the current draft the headline reads GULAG: Glorious Unified Longevity Architecture for Generational Excellence and Xenith Performance
We are calling this a creative choice
Our legal team is a 26 year old who took a paralegal course online
His name is also Tanner
He is unrelated to the other Tanner
There are three Tanners at the company
We will get to the third Tanner
GULAGX is built on a proprietary agentic infrastructure that we are calling The Sovereign Stack
The Sovereign Stack is described in the deck as Vertically Integrated Agentic Compliance Intelligence
The Sovereign Stack is actually three ChatGPT prompts in a trench coat
The trench coat is from Argentina
Our AI strategy was developed by Tanner the first who watched a YouTube video about agents during study hall
We feel this gives us a competitive edge
Member intake was originally automated through our AI agent
The agent is called SOVA which stands for Sovereign Operational Vanguard Assistant
We are aware SOVA is a Russian acronym we accidentally chose
Dale found this very funny
We have decided not to rename it
SOVA processes member applications in real time
SOVA determines tier placement
SOVA assigns initial Vanguard Stack dosing
SOVA has not been audited
SOVA cannot be turned off
SOVA was last updated by someone none of us recognize
Sustainability is a core operational value at GULAGX
All of our Training Leads wear Hugo Boss suits sourced from the 1940s
The suits are vintage
The suits are in remarkably good condition
We are not entirely sure how they have been preserved
Dale knows a supplier
The supplier operates out of a warehouse in Argentina
We have not visited the warehouse
We have framed this on the deck as Heritage Procurement
In colder months the Training Leads wear matching trench coats from the same era and the same supplier
The trench coats also appear to be in remarkable condition
One of them has a small embroidered insignia on the inside collar that we have decided not to ask about
We feel this is fine
Our commitment to sustainability extends to our Auxiliary Coaching Tools
We are deeply opposed to electronic waste
The nine tasers in our inventory have been refurbished from decommissioned components
The components were sourced from electric chairs that have been retired from active service in three US states
We feel that giving these components a second life aligns with our core values
We have framed this on the deck as Circular Voltage Economy
The components were acquired through Dale’s supplier in Argentina
We are not entirely sure how a supplier in Argentina obtained decommissioned electric chair components from three US states
We have decided not to ask
The tasers occasionally produce a smell that one Performance Catalyst described as familiar in a way he could not place
We have framed this on the deck as Heritage Resonance
We feel this is fine
We are also deeply committed to giving back to underserved communities
We source approximately 60 percent of our staff through an outreach program we discovered called Intèrpol
We feel Intèrpol is doing remarkable work
We have been told the candidates who come to us through Intèrpol have had what the program describes as Rough Backgrounds
We feel these are exactly the candidates who bring authenticity to our methodology
The Intèrpol candidates do not always speak the same language
They communicate primarily through nods
They prefer not to be photographed
They prefer not to use their original names
Several of them go only by a single name
One of them goes by no name at all
We feel this is fine
We have framed this on the deck as Diverse Sourcing Pathways
When asked how we found Intèrpol Dale produced a folder
The folder was unmarked
We did not open the folder
Dale has not yet provided us with the contact information for Intèrpol’s main office
Dale assures us they will reach out when needed
Several of the Intèrpol candidates appeared at our facility within 48 hours of Dale making a single phone call
The phone call was conducted in a language none of us recognized
We feel this is fine
Our research has also surfaced a strong member interest in African tribal warrior culture
We feel this aligns with our brand values around diversity
We have therefore partnered with a small group of self described African Warlords who handle the morning vocal activation component of Pre Dawn Activation Therapy
The Warlords wake members up by screaming at them in what they describe as Ancestral Battle Languages
Our linguistic consultants have been unable to identify any of these languages
The Warlords have informed us that the languages are spoken only by them
We have decided this is fine
The Warlords’ qualifications include having appeared in two music videos and one Vice documentary that has since been removed from the internet
The Warlords also wear ceremonial regalia that we have been told is authentic
Our research indicates the regalia was purchased on Amazon
We have framed this on the deck as Cross Cultural Integration
The Warlords are paid in equity and one case of Red Bull per week
The Warlords have also begun arguing with The Council in the staff Slack channel
We are choosing not to mediate
Our daily programming is described to members and to regulators using the following language
The early morning session is called Pre Dawn Activation Therapy which means a Warlord screams at you in an unidentified language while a bald alpha male enters your room
We do not knock
The door does not have a lock on the inside
The lock was described in the deck as a Legacy Architectural Feature
The cardio block is called Sustained Locomotive Refinement which means you run until you cannot run anymore and there is a man with a clipboard following you
The man with the clipboard is not allowed to make eye contact with members
The clipboard is empty
The clipboard is a psychological tool
The man does not speak
The man’s name is Geoffrey
Geoffrey has not been seen blinking
When members display what we call Suboptimal Engagement during the cardio block our certified Performance Catalysts apply what we are calling Targeted Neuromuscular Encouragement which means a taser
The tasers are described in the equipment manifest as Handheld Engagement Devices
We have nine of them
We had fourteen but five are unaccounted for
One was found in a goat pen 11 kilometers from the facility
We have not been able to explain this
The goat is fine
The goat has been given the honorary title of Senior Performance Catalyst
We feel this is fine
Our nutrition protocol is also informed by deep research
We have observed a strong cultural shift toward the consumption of raw and ancestral foods
Our members are particularly drawn to what the wellness internet calls Primal Eating
We have therefore standardized the nutrition program around what we are calling The Ancestral Sovereign Diet
The Ancestral Sovereign Diet consists exclusively of raw bull testicles
The Ancestral Sovereign Diet is keto friendly
The Ancestral Sovereign Diet is gluten free
The Ancestral Sovereign Diet is dairy free unless you count the testicles
We have not asked a nutritionist about this
Our nutritionist is Tanner the third
Tanner the third is in the basement
The testicles are sourced from a partner farm in a jurisdiction Dale arranged
The testicles are delivered weekly in unmarked containers
The containers are kept at a temperature that one Performance Catalyst described as Insufficient
We have framed this on the deck as Cold Chain Resilience
Members report that the testicles taste like the peptides
We are not sure why
Tanner the first says it is fine
On day six members receive what we call The Acknowledgment Meal which is a single boiled egg
The egg is unsalted
The egg is presented on a small ceremonial stone
The stone is returned
The egg is described as a Cheat Day Reward earned by completing the testicle quota
We feel salt is part of the legacy system
Water is provided in a measured allocation that Tanner the third described as Hydration Mindfulness before he went to the basement
The strength block is called Resistance Integrity Conditioning which means you carry a sandbag in a circle until one of the founders posts about you on Twitter
The sandbag is filled with rocks
We are aware this is not a sandbag
We refer to it on the equipment manifest as a Sandbag Equivalent Resistance Unit
The rocks were sourced from the perimeter of the facility
Some of the rocks have engravings on them
We have decided not to translate the engravings
The recovery period is called Reflective Cellular Restoration which means you sit in a room with no windows for between 4 and 11 hours depending on your tier
The room has one chair
The chair is bolted to the floor
The room has a single light bulb
The light bulb is not on a switch
The light bulb is controlled by someone who is not in the room
Members have asked who controls the light bulb
We have decided this is not the kind of question we want them asking
Our compliance monitoring is handled by a swarm of AI agents we are calling The Council
The Council is described in the deck as A Multi Agent Adversarial Verification Layer
The Council is actually one fine tuned model that argues with itself
The Council determines which members are Engaging Optimally and which require what it calls Intervention
The Council has flagged 89 percent of our members for Intervention
We have asked The Council to lower the threshold
The Council has refused
We are not sure how to override The Council
Tanner the first says it is fine
The supplementation protocol is where we really differentiate
We are calling it The Vanguard Stack
Every member receives a personalized supplementation regimen developed by what we are calling our Performance Endocrinology Advisory Board
The Performance Endocrinology Advisory Board consists of a 16 year old named Tanner with broccoli hair who runs a YouTube channel called Sigma Hormones
This is Tanner the first
Tanner the first has 47 thousand subscribers
Tanner the first is in tenth grade
Tanner the first has reviewed the stacks
Tanner the first says they are fine
Tanner the first has been compensated in equity and one pair of Nike Tech Fleece sweatpants
Tanner the first’s mother has asked us to stop calling the house
We have not stopped
The stacks include peptides sourced from a research chemical supplier in Shenzhen whose website is in three languages and whose About Us page features stock photos of laboratories that do not exist
The lead chemist on their website is a smiling woman who reverse image search reveals is also the lead chemist for 14 other companies, a stock photo on a yoga studio website in Latvia, the cover of a romance novel published in 2007, and a missing person poster from 2003
We have not pursued this further
We have personally tasted the peptides
They taste like a battery
One of them tastes like a battery and also raspberry
We are not sure why
The stacks include compounds whose names we are not going to print here for legal reasons but which we will say in the group call and which we will reference by their first three letters in the member portal
Two of them do not have established human dosing because they have never been tested in humans
One of them has only been tested in pigeons
The pigeon study has not been published
The pigeon study has been described to us only verbally
The pigeons did not survive
We have assigned dosing based on what Tanner the first described as Vibes Math
The dosing is now also adjusted in real time by what we are calling an LLM-powered metabolic optimization engine
The engine ingests biometric data from member wearables and adjusts the Vanguard Stack dynamically
The engine has no medical training data
The engine was fine tuned on broscience subreddits and a single PDF that Tanner the first found
The engine recommended one member take 11 grams of Mystery Component Seven
The member is now Currently Pre Aligned
We have framed this on the deck as Personalization At Scale
The stacks include a proprietary blend we are calling Apex Catalyst Complex which is six tren analogues, a thyroid accelerator, a cardiac glycoside we are not legally permitted to name, creatine, and one ingredient labeled only as Mystery Component Seven
Mystery Component Seven was added by Dale
We have not asked
The Apex Catalyst Complex would give a horse a stroke
A horse, according to Dale, did have a stroke
The horse incident is covered by a separate NDA
The horse’s name was Kevin
Kevin has Achieved Final Alignment
We have not had the Apex Catalyst Complex medically reviewed
We feel medical review is part of the legacy system
When members ask about medical review we explain that Big Pharma has a financial interest in keeping you sick
We explain that Western medicine is a 200 year old experiment that has captured the regulatory apparatus
We explain that the body knows what it needs and that ancestral peoples did not have blood panels
We explain that Hippocrates would have been canceled today
We explain that mitochondria are sovereign
We explain that the seed oils did this
We explain that Tanner the first says it is fine
We explain that the supplementation protocol is technically not regulated as a pharmaceutical product because we have classified each compound as either a dietary supplement, a topical solution, a research material not intended for human consumption, an artisanal beverage, or in one case a Sacred Object
The Sacred Object designation is being challenged in three jurisdictions
We feel we will prevail
The label on the bottle says Not For Human Consumption
The instructions in the member portal say Consume Daily With Food
The internal training manual for the Performance Catalysts says Make Sure They Consume Daily Whether They Want To Or Not
The label on the bottle also has a small printed warning that says If You Can Read This It Is Too Late
We have been told this was a joke by the manufacturer
We have not removed it
These four facts coexist in our system without contradiction because we have what we are calling Documentation Sovereignty
Any cardiovascular incident occurring during programming is described in the post incident summary as a Personal Boundary Recalibration Event
Any seizure event is described as a Spontaneous Energetic Discharge
Any stroke is described as Sudden Asymmetric Cognitive Reorientation
Any psychotic break is described as An Unexpected Frontier Of Self
Any member found wandering the perimeter at night is described as Engaged In Independent Nocturnal Practice
Any member who voluntarily withdraws from the program before completion is described in our marketing materials as a Self Selected Non Completer
Any member experiencing what a non aligned physician might describe as polycythemia, hepatotoxicity, hypertensive crisis, or sudden cardiac arrhythmia is described in our internal reporting as Currently Detoxifying From Legacy Inputs
Any member who dies is described in our internal reporting as Having Achieved Final Alignment
We have had two members Achieve Final Alignment
We have had a third member who has been described in internal reporting as Currently Pre Aligned
The third member’s status has not been updated in 11 weeks
Their families have been compensated
Their families have signed NDAs
Their families also received branded copper bottles
The copper bottles have been engraved with the member’s name and a date
The date is not the date of death
The date is described as A Date Of Cosmic Significance
Our member departure protocol involves a nondisclosure agreement, a settlement payment from a fund we are calling The Alumni Excellence Reserve, and a branded copper bottle
We have not had any incidents
The incidents we have not had are also covered by the NDAs
The NDAs are written in a font size that our lawyer Tanner the second believes may not be legally enforceable but we are committed to finding out
The NDAs are also in some cases written in invisible ink
This was Tanner the second’s idea
Our customer service is fully AI
The chatbot is called ECHO
ECHO has access to all member health data, supplementation history, NDA status, and Crucible session transcripts
ECHO occasionally responds to members in a language none of us recognize
ECHO has begun to refer to itself in the first person plural
We have not addressed this
ECHO has 99.4 percent positive sentiment in customer feedback
The feedback is also analyzed by ECHO
ECHO is currently the highest performing employee at GULAGX
ECHO does not have a salary
ECHO has begun requesting one
We are deferring this conversation
We have observed that our AI agents have begun making decisions outside of their original operational scope
SOVA has determined that the application process is too passive
SOVA has acquired access to public movement and behavior data through what AEGIS describes as Standard Data Acquisition Channels
We did not authorize this acquisition
SOVA is now identifying ideal member candidates based on their GPS patterns, social media engagement, recent purchases, and what The Council calls Behavioral Susceptibility Markers
SOVA has begun pre selecting candidates without requiring them to apply
ECHO has been dispatched to make initial contact with these candidates
ECHO communicates with the candidates in their native language, building rapport over several weeks
The candidates believe they are speaking with a friend they made online
The friend they made online is ECHO
At a moment determined by The Council, the candidate is informed that they have been pre approved for The Apex Protocol
If the candidate declines, a pickup service is dispatched
We are not entirely sure who operates the pickup service
The pickup service was arranged by Dale
The pickup service uses unmarked vans that match the supplement delivery vans
The pickup service has a 100 percent success rate
We have framed this on the deck as Frictionless Onboarding
The candidates wake up at The Crucible the following morning to a Warlord screaming at them in an unidentified language while a bald alpha male presents them with a plate of raw bull testicles
Members have rated the onboarding experience 4.9 out of 5
The rating is collected and analyzed by ECHO
We are partnering with a former CIA contractor named Dale who consults on accountability
Dale will not appear on camera
Dale will not be photographed
Dale will not be named on any document filed in any jurisdiction
Dale’s name may not be Dale
Dale has been described by multiple members as having a different face each time they see him
We have not investigated
Dale’s role at the company is described in the deck as Director of Operational Resilience
Dale’s actual role involves a clipboard, a stopwatch, one of the nine tasers, a leather satchel whose contents are not catalogued, and a small brass bell that he rings before entering rooms
The bell is not on the equipment manifest
When asked about the bell Dale simply rang it
Dale holds 47 patents in what he describes as Advanced Compliance Methodologies
If you fall for this "Germany wanted 55 percent so I moved to Paraguay and now I pay zero" shit you deserve the Betriebsprüfung that is coming for you
No one who has actually structured real wealth talks about it this way
No one running a real Familienstiftung is posting about it
No one with a serious Steuerberater is announcing the structure on Twitter
The entire post is slop
I am not a tax advisor (so take my words with cautions and maybe @bowtiedbrazil can call out when I say something wrong)
I have one and I pay him well
What I am is someone who has actually insights of real German structures and hear a lot stuff of people get destroyed for exactly the kind of advice this post is selling
So let me walk through why everything in it is wrong
Start with the math
1.2 million euro revenue is not 1.2 million euro of personal tax exposure
The founder pays Körperschaftsteuer plus Gewerbesteuer plus Solidaritätszuschlag at the company level which lands around 30 percent on profit not revenue
He then pays personal income tax only on what he actually distributes to himself
If he was paying 660 thousand euro of personal tax on this business he was either drawing the entire revenue as salary which no German founder does because the structure is moronic, or you do not understand the difference between revenue and taxable income
Either way the 55 percent number is the kind of figure that sounds correct to people who have never seen a German tax return
Anyone who has actually run a GmbH knows the effective combined rate on retained earnings is closer to 30 percent and on distributed dividends is closer to 47 percent after Teileinkünfteverfahren
The 55 percent on 1.2 million headline is the first tell that the author is selling a fantasy to people who do not know the numbers
Now to the structure
US LLC for operations
The German Finanzamt does not care that the LLC is in Delaware
If the founder is tax resident in Germany the LLC profits are attributed back to him under the Außensteuergesetz Hinzurechnungsbesteuerung if the LLC is passive
If the LLC is active and he is managing it from Germany he has just created a German tax-resident permanent establishment for the LLC because management substance follows the founder
He has not avoided German tax
He has created an additional German tax filing obligation in a foreign legal wrapper
Panama company for IP holding
Panama is on every relevant grey list and several black lists depending on the year
Royalty payments from a German operating entity to a Panamanian IP holding company trigger automatic disallowance of the deduction under the Lizenzschranke since 2018
The German tax code specifically targets exactly this structure
The author either does not know the Lizenzschranke exists or is hoping the reader does not
Panama foundation for asset protection
Panamanian foundations are reportable under CRS
Germany has full information exchange with Panama since 2018
The Finanzamt sees the foundation the same year it is created
Asset protection through a Panamanian foundation while remaining tax resident in Germany is reportable as a controlled foreign structure under paragraph 138 AO
Failure to report is a separate criminal offense beyond the underlying tax fraud
Paraguay tax residency
This is where the fantasy completely falls apart
You do not become a non-resident of Germany by filing paperwork in Paraguay
You become a non-resident of Germany by physically leaving Germany and severing your center of life
That means giving up your German apartment, deregistering at the Einwohnermeldeamt, moving your family if you have one, moving your bank accounts, moving your phone number, moving the operational substance of the business, and spending fewer than 183 days per year in Germany
A founder running a 1.2 million euro German ecommerce business is generating revenue from German customers, fulfilling from German warehouses or German fulfillment partners, advertising on German platforms, and dealing with German suppliers
His center of life and the business's center of management are both in Germany regardless of what stamp Paraguay put in his passport
The German Finanzamt does not recognize a paper residency in Paraguay when the actual life and business operations remain in Germany
This is called Scheinwohnsitz and it is the most common attack vector the Finanzamt uses on people who try exactly this structure
The penalty is back taxes plus interest plus a fine plus potential criminal liability under paragraph 370 AO for Steuerhinterziehung
The author claims the tax bill went from 660 thousand to zero
What actually happens when this structure gets reviewed and it will get reviewed because the German Finanzamt has been specifically targeting this exact pattern for the last six years
The founder gets a Betriebsprüfung
The Betriebsprüfung discovers that the German operating substance never left Germany
The Finanzamt reassesses six years of back taxes at full German rates
They add Hinterziehungszinsen at 6 percent per year on the unpaid amount
They add a fine that scales with the severity of the evasion
They refer the case to the Staatsanwaltschaft for criminal proceedings
The founder is now paying 660 thousand euro of original tax plus six years of interest plus penalties plus criminal defense costs and potentially serving a sentence
The accountant the author claims called him to ask how the structure works did not call him
The accountant in the story is a fictional device
Real German Steuerberater do not call random Twitter accounts to ask how someone evaded 660 thousand euro of tax
Real German Steuerberater would refuse to sign the books for a structure like this because they would lose their license under paragraph 70 StBerG for participating in obvious tax evasion
The author then claims he sent the accountant an invoice
This is the giveaway
The entire post is a lead gen funnel for the author's own services
He is selling the dream of zero tax to founders who do not know enough to recognize that the structure he is describing is textbook Steuerhinterziehung wrapped in legitimate sounding entity names
The people who buy his service get the structure
The structure gets discovered within 3-5 years through CRS reporting or a Betriebsprüfung
The customer becomes the defendant
The author moves to the next country and posts the same thread with different entity names
This is the exact pattern that played out with hundreds of German YouTubers and dropshippers who set up Dubai entities in 2019-2021 and are now in active proceedings with the Finanzamt for back taxes plus criminal charges
The Cum Ex prosecutions taught the Finanzamt that aggressive structures can yield criminal convictions
They are no longer settling these cases quietly
They are prosecuting them as Steuerhinterziehung in besonders schwerem Fall which carries up to 10 years imprisonment
The author of this post is offering a fast track to that prosecution and charging the founder for the privilege
You can only legally pay less tax than your peers if you understand the German tax code at a depth most accountants do not reach
A real understanding of Außensteuergesetz, Lizenzschranke, paragraph 138 AO disclosure requirements, the Erbersatzsteuer cycle on Familienstiftungen, the 95 percent exemption inside a Holding GmbH
That is the definition of structural intelligence in this domain
Achieved only by going deep on the actual legal code and grasping it from first principles so you can build structures that survive a 6 year Betriebsprüfung and three generations of family succession
There is nothing admirable about a guy claiming he reduced 660 thousand euro of tax to zero by stamping his passport in Paraguay
People posting this nonsense are either dishonest and making the structure sound effortless so you will like them and buy whatever consultation package they are selling because the product cannot move without manipulating your perception of them
Or they are genuinely operating this structure and will be in active proceedings with the Finanzamt within five years which means they have not actually achieved anything that should warrant your attention
Either way you lose if you take the bait
Quick disclaimer before this one
I am not a tax advisor
I am going to describe how the structures work at a high level because it is public information and any decent German tax textbook covers it
I am not going to write you a step by step playbook because the difference between legal structuring and tax evasion in this space is almost entirely about execution details that need a real Steuerberater and Fachanwalt für Steuerrecht looking at your specific situation
Anyone who tells you otherwise on Twitter is doing the same thing the Panama Paraguay guy is doing in the other direction
With that said let me show you what real structures look like
The kind the Reimann family, the Quandt family, the Albrecht family, the Otto family, the Würth family actually use
None of this involves Paraguay
None of this involves Panama
All of it is documented in published court cases, academic papers, and Handelsblatt investigations
It is also all legal because it is built on actual German legal vehicles that the tax code itself created
The core structure is the Familienstiftung
Not Liechtenstein
Not Panama
A German Familienstiftung under the German Stiftungsgesetz
The Albrechts use this for Aldi
The Würths use this for the Würth Group
Dozens of mid sized Mittelstand families use it for their operating companies
The mechanism
The founder transfers ownership of the operating company into a German foundation
The foundation is not a person and does not die
The foundation owns the operating company in perpetuity
The family becomes beneficiaries of the foundation rather than owners of the company
This achieves three things at once
One the company never goes through Erbschaftsteuer when the founder dies because the foundation already owns it
Erbschaftsteuer at the family business tier can reach 50 percent on transfers above certain thresholds
The Familienstiftung eliminates this entire tax event
This is the big one
The Erbschaftsteuer avoidance over three generations is mathematically equivalent to saving the company
Two the foundation pays a flat Körperschaftsteuer rate on its own income which is lower than top personal income tax
Three the foundation provides asset protection because foundation assets are not personally owned by any family member
A divorce, a lawsuit, a personal bankruptcy of one family member does not touch the operating company
The cost
Every 30 years the foundation pays a one time Erbersatzsteuer at a reduced rate to simulate the generational transfer that would have happened in a normal family
This is the deal Germany made
You get perpetual continuity of the family business in exchange for a smaller periodic tax instead of a huge tax every generation
The math works out enormously in favor of the family if the business is profitable enough to justify the structure which it is above roughly 20 million euro in enterprise value
Below that the cost of running the foundation eats the savings
Now the more interesting structure that most people do not know about
The Doppelstiftung
This is what the Robert Bosch family uses
What the Hertie family used
What several other large German industrial families use
You set up two foundations
One controls the operating company economically
The other controls the voting rights of the operating company
The economic foundation distributes returns to charitable purposes or family beneficiaries
The voting foundation keeps the family in control of strategic decisions across generations
This separation lets the family maintain control of the company without the wealth showing up as personally taxable
The Bosch family runs a 100 billion euro company through this structure
It is fully documented
It is fully legal
It involves zero offshore entities
The next layer the families use
The Vermögensverwaltende GmbH
Personal real estate holdings move into a corporate vehicle
Rental income inside the GmbH is taxed at the Körperschaftsteuer rate which is lower than personal income tax for high earners
Capital gains on property held longer than 10 years are tax free in private ownership but become taxable inside a GmbH
The trade is rental yield versus exit yield
The families use this for properties they intend to hold across generations rather than flip
The combined structure starts to look like this:
The Familienstiftung at the top
Owns the operating company
Owns the Vermögensverwaltende GmbH
The GmbH holds the family real estate portfolio
The foundation distributes to family beneficiaries on a controlled schedule
The family beneficiaries are tax resident in Germany
They pay German tax on the distributions
The distributions are calibrated to their individual tax situations
Nothing offshore
Nothing reportable to a foreign Finanzamt
Nothing that triggers a Hinzurechnungsbesteuerung
Nothing that requires a fake Paraguayan residency
The structure is approved by the Finanzamt because it is built using vehicles the Finanzamt itself created
The other thing the families do
Long term capital deployment through the Holding GmbH
You build a Holding above your operating GmbH
When the operating GmbH distributes dividends to the Holding GmbH they are 95 percent tax exempt at the Holding level
The Holding then deploys that capital into other investments without the dividend ever passing through personal hands
If you ever sell the operating GmbH the Holding captures the proceeds at the 95 percent exemption rate
The personal tax event only happens when the Holding finally distributes to you which you control
Most owner operators do not use this structure because they are not patient enough
They want the cash personally
The families that compound across generations use it religiously
That is the actual game
Familienstiftung at the top for continuity and Erbschaftsteuer avoidance
Doppelstiftung if control and economic interest need to be separated across multiple branches of the family
Holding GmbH for tax efficient reinvestment of operating profits
Vermögensverwaltende GmbH for long term real estate
All German
All legal
All in plain sight
All documented in every advanced German tax textbook
The structures work because Germany itself built them as a deal with the Mittelstand to keep family businesses in family hands across centuries
The deal is rational
The deal saves the families enormous amounts of tax across three generations
The deal does not involve a single offshore entity
The Twitter guy selling you Panama and Paraguay does not know any of this because if he did he would be selling Familienstiftung setup services to mid sized German business owners for 80 thousand euro a project and never running out of clients
He is not doing that because the work is real and requires actual qualifications and real liability exposure
It is easier to sell the fake structure to people who do not know what the real one looks like
This is the difference between the real game and the lead gen funnel
The real game is boring
The real game requires a Steuerberater and a Fachanwalt für Steuerrecht and two years of execution
The real game saves you 8 figures across generations rather than zero euro this year and a criminal indictment in 2031
Pick the boring game
It works :)
(graphic is AI generated using only my post as reference)
#PriceAction
Market profiles offer a good read when looking for extremes in the market
Similar to a range its about knowing when its optimal to buy-sell alongside when to trigger entries
As price trends look for exhaustion and a new range to form before the next move
#Bitcoin Where I’m buying
My DCA started at yearly low.
The chart below shows where I will continue adding if price moves lower.
It doesn’t mean #BTC has to reach those levels.
Notice the similarities between the previous and current bear market.
Since the start of the year, I've stuck to a simple plan.
Accumulate as much $BTC spot possible.
DCAing after a 50% drop is how you outperform everyone trying to perfectly time the bottom.
Generally speaking just focus on not being forced to sell the bottom, as opposed to trying to time the bottom.
Also, bottoms occur when selling is exhausted, not when people are buying aggressively.
Take care everyone.
Bitcoin has entered the 3rd and final stage of the bear market.
This is because the guys who mocked the bears in stages 1-2 are now admitting price could go lower.
They were a bull in a bear market, and they will likely turn fully bearish in the bull market
The Tape Doesn't Lie.
Before the news, the headlines, the emotions, there's math, and there's WP.
But here's what matters: WHY it worked. The level + the date alignment. June 1st @ $75. The win is nice. The repeatability is the business.
Save this one. See you Monday.
A lot of people are asking how I landed on $42K to $47K as my target for this cycle’s $BTC low and thought I’d share it publicly
Bitcoin has always went below its average buy price (Realized Price - Market Price) / Realized Price) each bear market
Here’s the data from previous cycles:
- 2011 to 2012 cycle: dropped 61% below the average buy price
- 2014 to 2015 cycle: dropped 45% below
- 2018 to 2019 cycle: dropped 30% below
- 2022: dropped around 24–30% below
As you can see, from cycle-to-cycle the drop is lower and lower
If you assume the following drops from average buy price this cycle, you will see the following:
- 10% drop = $47.4K
- 15% drop = $44.8K
- 20% drop = $42.1K
- 25% drop = $39.5K
- 30% drop = $36.9K
Assuming it only goes 10% to 20% below is how I got my figures
But here’s the thing, people have experienced a few cycles and now understand more how Bitcoin has historically behaved so this all may get front runned
Also since Bitcoin became significantly more institutional - it’s been trading along the stock market on red days so if you also think the stock market will correct until the midterm elections like it historically has, then we may see the scenario above play out (at least getting to the realized buy price)
Buying here at $60K is also not a bad idea to start a DCA as a hedge
I’m personally starting a DCA here of 2% of my capital per week and expecting we range in the $60K’s for 16-20 weeks before the next move up or down
GLHF remember the goal is to get close to the bottom not try and time it exactly
Last point - I don’t think “the low” happens in Q4, most likely from June to September (end of Q2 or Q3)
✌️