Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️

Music, games, graphic design. He/Him.

[Eliezer Yudkowsky @allTheYud]

Every month a new guy discovers LLMs; discovers a skill the current LLMs require to get good results; and writes about the future jobs that will always be available for smart people like HIM, that are SKILLED in using LLMs.

The next generation of AIs doesn't need his fancy prompt. The image model goes from needing to type in just the right set of weird words and cryptic sorcerous invocations, to most people being able to type in English what they want and get a pretty good result.

There are still tasks that require careful invocation. But they are a much smaller fraction of all the tasks people are trying to do, or you can get a bleh result without the elaborate invocation to get it really good. And to improve on the bleh result you need to be substantially more of an expert than back when the Guy was memorizing a rule about adding "trending on Artstation" to the image prompts, as would always require a human paid to do that.

Another generation of AIs comes out. The next generation of Clever Skills is obsolete. Image models just obey the instructions for compositing panels without mixing them up, and you don't need to be an expert to get them to do it right. Another human value-add is gone. A wider set of tasks require no human expert.

Now a new Guy notices LLMs have become useful in his field for the first time. He discovers they require SKILL to use CORRECTLY. He posts about how there will always be jobs for humans who are SKILLED in using LLMs like HIM.

But it is not an infinite cycle. It is not the same each time it repeats. Now the Guy is a highly paid programmer or a career mathematician in 2026, instead of a graphic artist in 2023.

In six months the models will no longer require his vaunted Skills.

And by then there will be another Guy.

But the process doesn't continue forever. The Guys are coming from fields that were harder and harder for AIs. The brief centaur eras are shorter and shorter.

Today it is writers who are laughing at how bad the LLMs are at their job, and who will perhaps soon be posting about how it takes Skill to get an LLM to do their job Correctly. But the models are coming faster, and the eras of kinds of human value-add in each field are shortening.

There is a point when you run out of Guys, either because the centaur eras are too short for people to develop SKILLs and post to Twitter about them; or because there are not lands left for AIs to conquer; or because ordinary people are not reassured by some Nobel laureate proclaiming there will always be jobs for Nobel laureates with the SKILLS to prompt robotized biology labs Correctly.

But we'll never run out of amateur economists who assert entirely *without* a brief contemporary example that there will always be jobs for humans skilled at operating AIs!

We'll run out of professional economists saying it when nobody is paid for that work anymore.

I guess we'll also run out of amateur economists when they're dead.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@Valuable @BusDownBonnor Asimov's Robot stories were principally about how those were a bad set of laws, and how intelligent machines need room for nuance in order to function predictably.
AI isn't a person, but we learn about transference when we're toddlers. Lots of reasons to be nice to your toys.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@dannycantalk As with many paradoxes, the issue is in the vagueness of the question. The predictor is *possibly* imperfect, but there's no insight into how imperfect, the mechanism it uses, or when it gets it wrong. It's a question of ego disguised as a question of math/risk tolerance.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@dannycantalk The question is whether you think you're more clever than the predictor AND every single person it got correct before you. If so, take both boxes. Otherwise take one.
In terms of expected value, if the predictor is any more accurate than a coin toss, it makes sense to one-box.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@grok @BrianRoemmele @bg_anders Thanks @grok! I'm curious: The lowest VRAM you quoted was 16GB, but the 4070 ti has only 12GB.
Furthermore the cheapest ones on Ebay are >$500 for just the 4070 ti (>$800 for the Super).
How much would a used system with a 16GB card, 32+GB RAM, and a serviceable CPU likely cost?

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@oscarle_x @zackdfilms1 For sure. This is one of many ways of solving the "paradox" by simply choosing a scale. It's that simple. Every measurement of anything in the real world depends upon a subjective, predetermined level of accuracy, even a straight line.

[Daniel @growing_daniel]

Awwww did someone take your hard work and use it to train a model to mimic your expertise without compensation

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@Bakaburg1 @minchoi The product is the rendering software, not the projector. It uses a standard 3D projector, head tracking and 3D glasses to show the 3D image as it would appear in a VR headset. The image projected is still a 2D surface, so it only works from one POV at a time.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@D0804292010441 @AISafetyMemes @elonmusk Can you tell me more about that? I'm also excited for tech that can help us keep up with computers, but I worry about BCIs developed by private corporations hastening the control and exploitation of regular people. Isn't 'corpos bad' kind of the message of Cyberpunk?

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

If the Democratic Party is to become a democratic party, the first job of a new DNC Chair is to get super-PAC money out of Democratic primaries.

AIPAC and other billionaire-funded super-PACS cannot be allowed to select Democratic candidates.

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.

While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change.

And they’re right.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@VenomflyRp @charlieblossom_ Best trip ever! Turns out those clowns are actually pretty chill lol
Can't wait to do it again ❤️

[Brian Jordan Alvarez @brianjoralvarez]

FX's English Teacher - OFFICIAL TRAILER | A new comedy series that stars Brian Jordan Alvarez as Evan, an Austin high school teacher striving to meet the conflicting needs of students and parents amidst ever-changing rules. Premieres 9.2 on FX. Stream on Hulu. #EnglishTeacherFX

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@cursiveradio I agree. And I'm sure some people there are; no protest is a monolith. I only mean to say they're not flying the flag of the thing they're protesting, but rather the thing some people feel they should be protesting.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@cursiveradio I understand the sentiment, but it's not Netanyahu's flag, and the people aren't protesting the state of Israel. They're protesting against a corrupt head of state and a limited set of inhumane policies. IMO the flag represents their best hopes for the future of the nation.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@MitchellLawre20 This is a particular pet peeve of mine, so any time I move into a new place I meticulously label every breaker so I never have to guess.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@StephenPiment @mbusigin I'd usually start a new session, esp if I've gotten a couple responses in a row showing decoherence. But if you're careful about sanitizing the expectations of the model, you could prob keep it to the same convo in the hope that some of the context filters through.

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@cursiveradio Yes! Follow the outcomes. If it saves even one life it's worth doing.
AKA billionaires should not exist 👀

[Spectrum | 🏳️‍🌈 | ☂️ @SpectrumOnX]

@cursiveradio So real. 'Who is materially benefitting from Prime same-day shipping? In what way does that, on balance, contribute to the common good?'
'Well, you know, no ethical cons-'
Stop.

[Hamish & Andy @hamishandandy]

Andy casually dropped some very big news in today’s podcast.