speculare

....

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.

He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.

He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."

He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.

But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.

Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

[speculare @Speculare2001]

@FloodCapital Check this Duncan. Power is a scarce scarce assett

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

World is literally on the brink of max chaos (tariff, debt ceiling, deglobalization) and max retardation (unprecedented tax cut, imminent YCC, gold run tail risk)—

And BTC IV percentile is lowest all year and you dont see this generational opportunity so no we are not the same.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

It's becoming clearer and clearer that we're looking at a seismic shift in the US's relationship with the world, between:

1) The US dismantling its foreign interference apparatuses (like USAID 👇)
2) Marco Rubio stating that we're now in a multipolar world with "multi-great powers in different parts of the planet" (https://t.co/dyHpStHPsO) and that "the postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us" (https://t.co/TPOksRgnwP)
3) The tariffs on supposed "allies" like Mexico, Canada or the EU

This is the US effectively saying "our attempt at running the world is over, to each his own, we're now just another great power, not the 'indispensable nation'."

It looks "dumb" (as the WSJ just wrote) if you are still mentally in the old paradigm but it's always a mistake to think that what the US (or any country) does is dumb.

Hegemony was going to end sooner or later, and now the U.S. is basically choosing to end it on its own terms. It is the post-American world order - brought to you by America itself.

Even the tariffs on allies, viewed under this angle, make sense, as it redefines the concept of "allies": they don't want - or maybe rather can't afford - vassals anymore, but rather relationships that evolve based on current interests.

You can either view it as decline - because it does unquestionably look like the end of the American empire - or as avoiding further decline: controlled withdrawal from imperial commitments in order to focus resources on core national interests rather than being forced into an even messier retreat at a later stage.

In any case it is the end of an era and, while the Trump administration looks like chaos to many observers, they're probably much more attuned to the changing realities of the world and their own country's predicament than their predecessors. Acknowledging the existence of a multipolar world and choosing to operate within it rather than trying to maintain an increasingly costly global hegemony couldn't be delayed much further. It looks messy but it is probably better than maintaining the fiction of American primacy until it eventually collapses under its own weight.

This is not to say that the U.S. won't continue to wreak havoc on the world, and in fact we might be seeing it become even more aggressive than before. Because when it previously was (badly, and very hypocritically) trying to maintain some semblance of self-proclaimed "rules-based order", it now doesn't even have to pretend it is under any constraint, not even the constraint of playing nice with allies. It's the end of the U.S. empire, but definitely not the end of the U.S. as a major disruptive force in world affairs.

All in all this transformation may mark one of the most significant shifts in international relations since the fall of the Soviet Union. And those most unprepared for it, as is already painfully obvious, are America's vassals caught completely flat-footed by the realization that the patron they've relied on for decades is now treating them as just another set of countries to negotiate with.

[Jon Erlichman @JonErlichman]

Some things smartphones have replaced:

cameras
maps
GPS devices
calculators
alarm clocks
TV’s
radios
camcorders
pay phones
yellow pages
answering machines
newspapers
calendars
VCR’s
flashlights
watches
timers
compasses
mail
cookbooks
car keys
cash
airline tickets
photo albums
magazines
money
voice recorders
scanners
walkie talkie
TV remotes
translators
playing cards
diaries
travel guidebooks
offices
foreign phrasebooks
portable speakers
takeout orders by phone
CDs
DVDs
encyclopedias
photocopiers
compact mirrors
bank branches
checks
rulers
address books
parking meters
rolodexes
dictionaries

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

1/ If your friends associate you with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any part of crypto, you’re probably getting Qs about what to do. It’s tricky to guide someone from where we are currently ($BTC ~$100K), especially if they’re an inexperienced investor. Some learnings from 10+ years of watching this dynamic play out...

[speculare @Speculare2001]

@samcallah $COSM Integrates Bitcoin and Ethereum as Treasury Reserve Assets

[speculare @Speculare2001]

Hello @MacaesBruno . Trying to find your talk in the youtube channel for Devcon. Was it Mainstage? in what day? can't seem to find it. thank you

[ELON CLIPS @ElonClipsX]

Elon Musk explains how Starship will be plucked out of the air by SpaceX's custom-built tower.

“This is a custom-built tower with arms that are designed to catch the largest and heaviest flying object ever made and pluck it out of the air. That's the theory, anyway.

[Engineer:] Elon just said, delete the legs. Delete. We'll just use the arms. And then, he said it again. Wow, he's serious. Okay, we better get on this. And now it seems normal.

[Elon:] It'll weigh about 250 tons. We'll make that lighter over time. So, you got a couple of hundred tons plummeting more than half the speed of sound. So, this thing is still coming in really fast. Pretty much down in a downward direction.

So then, they light the engines so it's got to slow itself down very fast and correct any error.

Whatever the X-Y error is when the engines land, it's got to take out that X-Y error and then drop the velocity to basically zero, come in between the arms.

The arms will be wide, and as it's coming in, the arms will close, go flush against the side of the vehicle, and the vehicle will be descending through the arms.

And those tiny little, you can barely see them, the little knobs, those kind of lifting lugs will touch the top of the arms and then it will hopefully not shear off and crumple.

Success is one of the possible outcomes. The probability is uncertain, but it is above zero.”

The Everyday Astronaut, 2022

[Everything SpaceX @spacex360]

The precision of the catch… 🔥

📹: SpaceX highlights reel

[Devon Eriksen @Devon_Eriksen_]

This is what will matter 1000 years from now.

Not your politics. Not your stupid tantrums about who platformed who on some website. Not your incomprehensible desire to send NASA's entire budget to the third world.

This guy reignited the Space Age.

He spent his own money, hired a bunch of dudes, and reignited the Space Age. And together, they underbid and outdid NASA and its pet dinosaur corporations on every conceivable level.

This is history happening before you.

If you are a puddlefish, if you think this is a wasteful showpiece or science project, then you don't understand physics, economics, astronomy, or in fact the basic layout of the universe you live in.

We live in a tiny puddle at the bottom of a well.

Out there is an entire universe, full not only of stuff to explore, but full of stuff to build things out of.

Big things. Wonderful things. Things that are going to make all of the cool stuff you have today, all of human civilization to date look like early Assyrians writing stuff down on wet clay with a reed.

Infinite resources. Infinite energy. Infinite space.

Instead of fighting over little patches of land, we will have an infinite 3d volume. Enclose it in steel, pump it full of air, spin it, and it's a habitat.

Instead of scratching tiny scraps of metal out of the crust of one planet, we will break down entire asteroids and smelt them.

Instead of drilling for hydrocarbons and turning water wheels, we will harness entire suns, split the atom, and eventually draw our fuel from the substance that makes up 99% of the entire universe.

None of your local, temporal Earth politics matter compared to this. This is more important than pride parades and abortions, more important than tribal conflicts in eastern Europe and southwest Asia, more important than tensions with Russia and China.

More important, in the long run, than the United States of America.

America's most important function, its one most vital purpose, is to serve as an incubator for this.

Because this changes everything.

All of our arguments about conditions on this planet become obsolete, because the whole planet becomes just one suburban neighborhood.

All of our wars over resources and territory become obsolete, because no one has time to brawl when we're all sitting on top of a dragon horde with sacks and shovels.

Everyone who was alive at the time remembers where they were when Kennedy died in Dallas. When the towers fell. When the Eagle landed. When the Wall came down.

But this... this is the real moment, one of the first of many. They are what every child will know about a thousand years from now, even if they have four arms and are genetically engineered for zero-g, or are sentient blocks of code running on a sphere of computronium enclosing an entire star.

You may not live to see that, depending on what we do or don't invent, and when.

But it will happen, and you will live to see wonderful things.

If the puddlefish don't get in the way.

Don't be a puddlefish.

[𝙺𝚒𝚖𝚋𝚊𝚕 𝙼𝚞𝚜𝚔 🤠 @kimbal]

Booster starts in top right corner. Watch to the end. Sound on

[Zaheer @zaheerebtikar]

If you want to understand *WHY* crypto doesn't trade like it used to then this singular image comparison will tell you everything you need to know.

On the left: Genesis's loan book Q1 2022
On the right: Galaxy's loan book Q1 2024

(caveat, all loans are now secured)

[speculare @Speculare2001]

@philhaussler @hemeon I hesitated so much between the black and white frame... went for white. will know the results today. looks great

[huss 🌊 🟦 @Husslin_]

@screentimes September BTC performance 😭

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

China’s scientific progress is real.

Citation counts can be gamed. There is some fraud. And Chinese researchers have been incentivized with cash to target top journals.

But the Nature Index, which looks at contributors to 145 top international journals, is solid. 1/ 🧵

[Balaji @balajis]

China and India are building nuclear.

[Zhu Su @zhusu]

federer

[Alex Gladstein 🌋 ⚡ @gladstein]

This website is really something

https://t.co/lxrG0DZfX5

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

US home prices have soared 47% so far this decade, outpacing all of the growth seen in the 1990s and 2010s, per BI.