So I actually tested this out on my commute last night & this morning:
Office —> subway 5min
Subway —> apt 10min
Saw 28 black w*men, 21 were obese. 75% rate. And I was generous on a couple of the 7 non-obese
This experiment was tough for me because I had to see 28 black w*men.
This is so insane lol
The more we bomb Iran the more semis get bid. Blow ‘em to smithereens, Donny!
Sucks I was going to start scaling into $smh and a few single names today but just can’t when I look at this price action. Oil will hit $70 before $100 (will delete if wrong)
Two notes:
1) yes, small sample size but I did walk by some exclusive pop-up brand that had 3 non-obese outside. Skews my 75% figure bc more attractive people show up to these things in nyc
2) on way to office this morning saw only 3 out of full 28 sample (they don’t have jobs)
Specifically WRT commodity markets, it makes 0 sense to focus on the supply side in the near term. You’ll never predict an oilfield fire or bombings taking supply offline.
Focus on demand & leave supply analysis for longer-term trades. All the Iran shit rn is just noise
A very annoying thing in markets & politics is when a person tries to understand a phenomenon, fails, then throws up their hands & exclaims “manipulation!”
WRT oil, here’s a little secret: no one has given a shit ab Ukraine for >4yrs & we JUST SAW how Hormuz will play out
I see what "the oil guys" are talking about now, having re-entered the oil producer equities yesterday thinking things would heat up.
Since I re-entered just yesterday
-Multiple Russian tankers were taken out in Black sea, essentially showing Russian Black oil loadings are finished (1 mm a day exports). Russia cannot protect black sea ships apparently.
-Iraq ended tanker loadings due to drone attack at VLCC terminal
-The Houthis are making noise that they in fact will shut the red sea
-The US put a missile into an Iranian bound tanker showing the blockade is one again real.
ALL that pushing WTI up 14 cents. Still not even 80.
Truly, I cannot explain this in any way that doesn't sound like a stupid conspiracy theory.
I was born on a Monday during “w*men’s history month”
Cursed at birth. Entire life an uphill battle trying to break free from the unchangeable.
This is why I don’t listen to minorities.
I had doubts before, but this xeet and the w*man earlier this week gloating about getting her client off death row officially confirmed it for me:
This is the worst time in all of human history to be a young man
@bordenfanacc Growth & inflation data weakening in meantime and a hike will be removed from 2yy
But growth + inflation impulses will pick back up in 4Q plus China impulse will eventually price in hike
Again a Dec-2026 worry for me
Very close to sprinting to my MD’s battery park apt & strangling him rn
MayB I’m retarded but do ppl know u can have opposing views on diff time horizons???
I can be (and have been) TACTICALLY bearish semis but CYCLICALLY bullish semis
Cortisol spike holy hell I need a breath
@bordenfanacc For now my calc is 2nd deriv going negative June-2027, capex generally leads mkt price by 6 months so I’m more worried ab mkt top in Dec
Problem is feel like mkt is keying off ‘28 ests and the 27 capex raise is accepted ATP
Yes on (4) but IMO hike gets priced ~June27 too