Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research)

Equity Research | Reverse DCF | ERP & Risk Analysis
Finding Alpha in Mispriced Expectations
Not Investment Advice

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

1/5 $ZTS @ $120 - Crisis or Opportunity?

📊 P/E 18x (vs 5Y avg 28x)
🐕 Implied growth 2.6% vs hist 8%
🤔 Market pricing catastrophe?

🐂 Companion trend, GLP-1 pets = $175
🐻 China collapse, Generic wave = $120

Deep dive 👇
#ZTS #Zoetis #AnimalHealth

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

1/5 $KO @ $77 - Quality or Trap?

📊 P/E 24x (vs 5Y avg 21x)
🥤 Implied growth 4.8% vs hist 2-3%
🤔 Market pricing perfection?

🐂 EM boom, pricing power = $95
🐻 GLP-1, compression = $52

Deep dive 👇
#KO #CocaCola #Valuation

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

1/5 $FDX @ $359 - Turnaround or Trap?

📊 Market Cap $86B (P/E 21x)
✂️ DRIVE: $4B savings, One FedEx
🤔 Question: Execution or Hope?

🐂 Margin 8%, Volume rebound = $420
🐻 DRIVE fails, Recession = $190

Deep dive 👇
#FDX #FedEx #Restructuring

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$ASML @ $1,368 - Monopoly priced right? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap €500B (P/E 38x)
🔬 100% EUV share, €36B backlog
🤔 Question: AI cycle peak or sustain?

🐂 AI supercycle, High-NA ramp = $1,800
🐻 China ban, semi downturn = $1,000

Deep dive 👇
#ASML #EUV #Monopoly #Semiconductor

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$AMD @ $190.95 - NVIDIA alternative? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $310B (P/E 28x)
🚀 Revenue +34%, Data Center +32%
🤔 Question: 2nd place or challenger?

🐂 AI share 15%, margin 22% = $280
🐻 NVIDIA 90% share, margin 14% = $155

Deep dive 👇
#AMD #Semiconductor #AI #DataCenter

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$SNOW @ $109.42 - Deep value? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $36B (P/S 13x)
📉 Down 50%+ from highs
🤔 Question: Growth scare or real?

🐂 Growth 25%, NRR 120% = $220
🐻 Slowdown 12%, churn = $80

Deep dive 👇
#SNOW #Snowflake #DataCloud #SaaS

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$TSLA @ $402.51 - Religion or stock? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $1.3T (P/E 170x)
🚗 Auto sales -8.6% YoY
🤔 Question: AI dream or reality?

🐂 Robotaxi + Optimus = $800
🐻 Auto decline, promises fail = $200

Deep dive 👇
#TSLA #Tesla #EV #AI #Robotaxi

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$BABA @ $144 - Deep value? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $345B (P/E 16x)
💰 Cash $80B = 23% of value
🤔 Question: Turnaround or trap?

🐂 Margin 15%, cloud 25% = $180
🐻 PPD wins, margin 8% = $95

Deep dive 👇
#BABA #Alibaba #ChinaTech #Value

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

005930.KS @ KRW 216,500 - HBM bet? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $270B (P/E 14x)
🚀 HBM4 launch Q1 2026
🤔 Question: Catch SK Hynix?

🐂 HBM 35% share, margin 60% = KRW 260K
🐻 Lose ground, cycle peak = KRW 165K

Deep dive 👇
#Samsung #005930 #HBM #Memory #Korea

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$HON @ $240.88 - Spin-off play? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $153B (P/E 23x)
🚀 Aerospace spin-off Q3 2026
🤔 Question: Value unlock or trap?

🐂 Spin success, ROE 28% = $290
🐻 Stranded costs, execution risk = $200

Deep dive 👇
#HON #Honeywell #SpinOff #Industrial

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$XOM @ $150.76 - $90 oil bet? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $577B (P/E 20x)
📉 Pricing $85 oil in $65 world
🤔 Question: Is this hope or investing?

🐂 Oil $90, Permian 5M boepd = $165
🐻 Oil $55, recession = $95

Deep dive 👇
#XOM #Exxon #Oil #OOTT

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$FCX @ $67.88 - Supercycle priced in? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $97B (P/E 25x)
⚡ Copper $6.00/lb (record high)
🤔 Question: Sustain or spike?

🐂 Cu $6.50, Grasberg 1Mt = $85
🐻 Cu $4.00, recession = $48

Deep dive 👇
#FCX #Copper #Supercycle #Commodities

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$CAT @ $766 - Tech valuation for tractors? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $347B (P/E 40x)
🚜 Record backlog $51B but...
🤔 Question: Is AI boom sustainable?

🐂 AI/data center 5yr+ = $850
🐻 Cyclical peak, tariff hit = $550

Deep dive 👇
#CAT #Caterpillar #AI #HeavyEquipment

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$COST @ $985 - Quality trap? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $418B (P/E 49x)
📉 Best biz in retail but priced for perfection
🤔 Question: Is 9% growth forever realistic?

🐂 Int'l expansion, Gen Z loyalty = $1,200
🐻 Multiple compression, renewal drop = $750

Deep dive 👇
#COST #Costco

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$UNH @ $288 - Medicare meltdown? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $265B (P/E 12x)
📉 Down 45% from highs, MA Star Ratings cut
🤔 Question: Is this cyclical pain or structural decline?

🐂 Utilization normalizes, Optum grows = $500
🐻 MA exodus, margin compression = $200

Deep dive 👇
#UNH

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$LLY @ $1,016 - Oral drug war lost to Novo? (1/5)

📊 Mkt cap $960B (P/E 185x)
📉 Novo got FDA approval for oral semaglutide first
🤔 Question: Can LLY catch up with Orforglipron 2027?

🐂 $100B sales, oral success = $1,200
🐻 Market share loss, pricing war = $450

Deep dive 👇

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$NVDA @ $182.81 - Rubin จะสร้าง supercycle จริงไหม? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $4.48T (P/S 34x)
📉 ขึ้น 600% จาก low $40 (2 ปี)
🤔 คำถาม: AI chip demand peak หรือยัง?

🐂 Rubin + 75% share = $150
🐻 Competition + AI winter = $40

วิเคราะห์ต่อ 👇
#NVDA #AI #Semiconductor

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$META @ $639.77 - Is the AI bet worth it? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $1.63T (P/S 9.9x)
📉 Up 610% from low $90 (2 years)
🤔 Question: Will Llama + AI actually monetize?

🐂 AI ads + Smart glasses = $800
🐻 TikTok + RL loss $17B = $350

Deep dive 👇
#META #AI #SocialMedia

[DigiPower X @DigipowerX]

The ARMS 200 – AI-Ready Modular Solution is currently in build and preparation phase — designed to accelerate Tier III-ready AI capacity on secured energy infrastructure.

This isn’t speculative land.
It’s power-first development.

•⁠ ⁠Modular architecture
•⁠ ⁠Energy-backed foundation
•⁠ ⁠Built for high-density AI & HPC workloads
•⁠ ⁠Structured for phased activation

The AI race won’t be won by GPUs alone.
It will be won by those who control power and execution timelines.

We’re building at the energy layer.

$DGXX

#AIInfrastructure #DataCenters #HPC #EnergyBackedAI #DigitalInfrastructure

[Pek Alpha Research @prettypek4531]

$META @ $639.77 - AI bet คุ้มค่าไหม? (1/5)

📊 Market Cap $1.63T (P/S 9.9x)
📉 ขึ้น 610% จาก low $90 (2 ปี)
🤔 คำถาม: Llama + AI จะ monetize ได้จริง?

🐂 AI ads + Smart glasses = $800
🐻 TikTok + RL loss $17B = $350

วิเคราะห์ต่อ 👇
#META #AI #SocialMedia