Spencer Smith

not feelin too good myself

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@ksenguptaa Used to get absolutely clowned by a guy that would finish teaching and play in dress shoes, slacks and a button down. He had played in like the 3rd league in some random Baltic country. Pros are just different, Zlatan could cook a normal person in a space suit

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

World cup is back baby

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@ksenguptaa Better than stealing croatias tbh

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@MostCrucified They looked so f good. Never seen a USMNT like that in my life. No way they keep it up tho right?

[Guthrie Nutter @guthrienutter]

Blown away by tonight’s sunset!! @capitalweather

[@ratlimit @ratlimit]

(In case this blows up) https://t.co/h64WmU6SZs

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@MostCrucified Buckle up

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@MostCrucified I showed my mom the show in HS and she thought it was historical fiction. Straight up said wow I cant believe this happened

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@MostCrucified Been waiting for the next one for almost 15 years

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

Catching up on the bee, turns out I have a new hero

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@ksenguptaa Lowkey killer

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@MostCrucified Might have missed the mark here, I forgot about wyman manderly

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@MostCrucified Balon and ser dontos?

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

Yglesias with an interesting way of looking at Trump's corruption.

We think that it's something he just gets away with and there are no consequences.

But if you think about it as his main priority, it's where he's spending his political capital.

Every president decides to spend it somewhere.

But most presidents have some kind of policy ambition, while Trump just wants to get as much money as possible and punish his enemies. So it's not costless, but a replacement for what would traditionally be an administration's agenda.

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

Relatively low gas prices in Texas sink jimmy

[Will Truman @trumwill]

I believe the following things about the Texas senate race:
1) Advantage Paxton. I'd say 70/30 he wins.
2) Candidate quality matters: Red has always won, but how much they win varies from candidate to candidate. When/if a Democrat does win, it won't be a sweep. It'll be a strong D against a weak R.
3) Paxton is a weak R. Paxton has deeply underperformed in 2018 and 2022, relative to the GOP benchmark. He barely outperformed Cruz in 2018 against a nobody.
4) Talarico is a flawed candidate, which is why I think he loses. Not specifically because of that, but because of Texas's partisan lean you need *everything* to break your way.
5) Talarico's religion doesn't help that much, but the effect may be non-zero. There are different kinds of evangelicals in Texas and there is a type that "He's one of us" may appeal to. He's gonna lose white evangelicals by a large margin.
6) Where Talarico's religion may come in most handy is it does give him a "Nice young man" vibe with people that like some Republicans but not really Trump or Paxton.
7) It also contraindicates what I think is Talarico's biggest liability apart from ideology, which is his Austinite vibe. It makes him less stereotypically Austin lefty, which is a plus.
8) I don't think the pedo/gay stuff is going to especially work against Talarico but otherwise the "weirdo" stuff might. It's not certain to, though.
9) Trump did well in Texas in 2024, but only relative to his marked underperformance in 2016 and 2020. Romney did better in 2012. He also did so well in 2024 because of his performance among Latinos (his coalition was very different from Romney's), who have soured on him.
10) Mid-terms in Texas are quite elastic. In 2018, the GOP had a baseline advantage of 7 points. In 2022 it was double that while in 2014 it was triple that. This election most closely resembles 2018 in national environment, 2018 also represents a high water-mark
11) Polling is Talarico-friendly, but it's going to be harder for him to get 5% more than Paxton to get 7-9% more.
12) I would say the over-under for Paxton is probably a four-point margin. To repeat: He is the favorite to win.

[Aaron Fritschner @Fritschner]

You should have voted to convict the scorpion in its impeachment trial, Senator Frog

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

Shocking revelation. I hope someone will call the newspaper

[Leigh Ann Caldwell @LACaldwellDC]

John Cornyn comes out and says what senators have been telling me privately....

They’re perplexed, angry, and, in some cases, resigned to the conclusion that Trump cares more about himself than the midterms. https://t.co/4EeopRNcZE

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@TheWapplehouse Won't this make it harder to drink out of

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@RyanRadia @AlexGodofsky Nice pull, definitely weakens my claim

[Spencer Smith @spencer429]

@RyanRadia @AlexGodofsky It seems like they revamped their whole shtick from a 1950s themed diner to a place that serves locally sourced avocado toast