Sold my $OPEN position yesterday after getting my own Opendoor offer.
I’m a believer in disrupting real estate, which is why I initially purchased the stock. The experience was smooth, assessment was easy, 4-day turnaround. Good UX.
Then the offer hit.
Comp in my neighborhood: $670k (same floor plan, sold pretty recently)
The offer: $620k
Total fees + deductions: ~$60k
My net vs. just listing: -$110k
This isn’t a real estate disruption. It’s a convenience tax that only works for desperate sellers. The TAM for desperate sellers isn’t a business.
The main issues data centers are facing are compute constraints and permits.
$GREE has 111.5 MW online and a pathway to 161.5 MW. They also have permits in New York through 2031.
The absolute downside is a fire sale where assets are sold at worst case $100M+ (current market cap ~$25M).
The upside is a 5-10x re-rating if and when they get the $36.7M debt overhang resolved by October 2026.
Genuinely what else am I missing? Given the constraint of the two issues above, I find it hard to believe they don’t find a resolution given their assets.
@cmsinvests In a couple of years from now, probably.
Money isn’t flowing into the Saas sector for a reason, and that uncertainty around their valuation won’t change while we’re still in the infancy of AI disruption.