spiker burgess

BSc Economics. been watching markets long enough to know when the narrative is wrong.

stocks, crypto, macro. unfiltered takes, no disclaimers

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@coinbureau the interesting part isn’t just the gold moving. it’s that central banks seem increasingly focused on where they can physically access it when things get messy.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@TrendSpider mstr at +40% while mu, nbis and ceg are also running. feels like the market is rewarding anything with a strong ai or power angle right now.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@CryptoNobler a $500m sell doesn’t automatically mean monday is doomed. whales sell for a lot of reasons, and crypto twitter will turn it into a prophecy in 30 seconds.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

labor day weekend. F1 italian grand prix at monza on sunday.

monza is the circuit that produces the most overtaking of the season because the track layout rewards low-downforce setups and long straights. every team makes a different trade-off between top speed and cornering and the grid order at monza almost never matches the championship order.

the team with the fastest car on a normal circuit is not always the team with the fastest car at monza. the conditions expose different things.

the jobs number today was monza for the fed. a circuit layout 162K strong employment that suddenly exposed the rate-cut narrative as the wrong setup for these conditions.

the market had the wrong downforce configuration going into today. the result was 300 points down on the dow.

monza sunday. if you want to watch one race this season, this is usually the one.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

lululemon fell 18% yesterday on declining revenue and a cut to its full-year outlook.

lululemon is not the walmart consumer or the advance auto consumer. lululemon sells $128 leggings and $68 water bottles to upper-middle income households who have, until now, been largely insulated from the consumer slowdown.

when lululemon's revenue is declining, the premium consumer is feeling it.

three consumer data points in the past month:

walmart guided down. advance auto missed. lululemon revenue declining.

walmart = lower-middle income squeezed.
advance auto = lower-middle income squeezed on maintenance spending.
lululemon = upper-middle income starting to pull back.

the consumer squeeze is no longer just a story about households at the lower end of the income distribution. it is moving up.

the fed is looking at 162K jobs today and may hike on september 17. the consumer is looking at $95 oil and $128 leggings they are not buying and sending a different message.

those two pictures are on a collision course.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@DudeWhoInvests lmaoo😂

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@AshCrypto that 2022 setp is definitely interesting 👀

if the same structure is forming again, the key quesion is whether price can actually hold above that prior cycle peak.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@Cortex_Mkt_X yeah, the structure definitely looksdesigned to et that AI valuation bump 👀

now the question is whether the underlying business can justify it.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

$GPRO gopro pivoted to data centres and the stock jumped 40%.

lmao

gopro makes action cameras. has for 20 years.the brand is synonymous with surf footage, helmet cams, extreme sport content.

and they announced a pivot io data centres and the stock went up 40% in one session.

this is the AI pivot trade at its most absurd and also its most honest. the market is not evaluating whether gopro has any competitive advantage in data centre infrastructure. it is rewarding the signal that the company is trying to be part of the AI economy.

the thing worth saying clearly: this works until it does not. the companies that genuinely pivoted into AI with real capabilities — dell on AI servers, palantir on enterprise software — are generating real revenue. their pivots made fundamental snse.

gopro in data centres is a narrative move. the market gave it a 40% day. the question is whether it looks different in three months when someone asks to see he revenue.

the pivot trade is the most rewarded and most dangerous strategy in this market. it works fast and unwinds faster.

📉 be careful which pivots you follow into.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@MatlamRajesh yeah, the timing around the warning is pretty interesting 👀

the bigger question is whether this was a one-off reaction or a repeatable playbook.

either way, the market clearly didn't love the AI pivot.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@reivasas @RippleXrpie 😅

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@luxinfinance $LULU down 18% is brutal 😭

strong brand, but weak guidance gets priced in fast. valuation needs growth to back it up.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@Sonusoniar 40% in one session is wild 😂

now let's see if the AI story can turn into actual revenue.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@luxinfinance a 40% move before the revenue even exists is a lot of optimism priced in.

i'd wait for the numbers before judging the pivot.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@dayxtrading $LULU down 18% in a day is brutal 😭

burry buying under $100 is interesting, but a falling knife is stilla falling knife.

i'd watch the guidance before calling the bottom.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@AshCrypto the institutional accumulation thesis is interesting, but “massive bull market” is still a prediction.

the clarity act could change the rules around crypto, but it won't guarantee trillions flow in.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@The_AI_Investor $3.11 EPS against a stock that can trade anywhere from $100 to $500 is a pretty wild setup 😭

at some point the multiple has to matter.

curious when $TSLA getsvalued more like $AAPL or $NVDA.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@ArkkDaily $40b per gigawatt is the number i'm watching 👀

if vera rubin really delivers that kind of economics, the next growth phase for $NVDA gets very interesting.

the ramp matters. the margins matter more.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

@Mr_Derivatives $INTC holding up while the tape is ugly 👀

those relative-strength days are worth paying attention to.

now let's see if buyers can keep it above $96.

[spiker burgess @spikers_bur]

lower rates would ease the debt burden, sure.

but if cuts push inflation expectations, yields or the dollar the wrong way, markets won't celebrate for long.

that's the tradeoff i'm watching.

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🇺🇸 JUST IN: Trump blasted the Fed’s inflation fears after strong jobs data, arguing lower interest rates would unlock faster growth and help cut U.S. debt costs.