Split Fusion

Software architect, poker, grouper fishing, Lithium stocks and associated battery metals.

All posts are simply my opinion.

[Energy Transition Investor @usuallyYJLee]

Looks like there won't be any more crying-wolf from CATL in the near future... #lithium shenanigans LOL

[Split Fusion @splitf]

@KylePotatoBake @WayneHines24470 @jczuleta BMI was taken over since their last predictions, just because the company name stayed the same does not mean the same level of accuracy remains. I had a lot of respect for BMI, but recently not so much. Do your own research.

[Daniel Jimenez Sch @D_Jimenez_Sch]

Hyped announcements with little critical scrutiny are what make many supply forecasts unrealistically bullish.
This is another example of announcements clashing with reality — whether from naivety, inexperience, or deliberate misdirection.
Forecasting supply requires more than believing announcements at face value.

[Jason @JasonInAU]

#Lithium News:
🔥 Spot Price Pops OVER $2,500 🔥

#JustGettingStarted

PRODUCERS REJOICE 💚
➡️ @ElevraLithium $ELV $ELVR

#EV #BESS $LAC $LAR

[Jason @JasonInAU]

#Lithium News (23 April)

📢 LAST LINE MATTERS )))))))
"The #lithium prices are likely to hover HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM, with FURTHER HIKES EXPECTED IN THE LONGER TERM"

🔁 REPEAT "FURTHER HIKES EXPECTED IN THE LONGER TERM"

@ElevraLithium $ELV $ELVR #NAL
#EV #BESS #AEM $LAC $LAR

[Dwayne Sparkes @sparkes_dwayne]

Some random thoughts on some of the latest lithium news as a I sip my morning coffee.

CATL has brought in Chen Zinghe from Zijin as an advisor for it’s mining division. It’s basically CATL saying they are worried that they can’t find enough lithium to meet their massive growth. It’s impressive how fast CATL has grown and you’ve got to applaud the company.

However, I think they are leaving it a bit late as I touched on in an old post of mine (link below). I think they’ve underestimated just how difficult it is to find lithium deposits. Economical lithium deposits are rare and very hard to find. They could go years and find nothing. Zijin doesn’t have a great track record at finding deposits, which is rightly so, they are after all miners, not explorers.

And it’s not just Zijin. What was the last deposit that RIO found? Or BHP? Or FMG? The majors are terrible at exploration, despite the fact they have very large exploration budgets. Exploration isn’t just about having a big budget. A geologist working for a major for a wage in a cookie cutter position is going to be less hungry to find something than a prospector working for themselves for 0 dollars and funding early exploration themselves. Projects are largely found by individuals, they then get passed into exploration companies, which then get taken out by miners.

Basically every (~90%) current lithium mine and the majority of lithium resources (excluding a lot of the Canadian plays) have been mapped and known about for a 100+ years. Most of them were old tin and tantalum mines.

Adover, Kathleen Valley, Pilgangoora, Tabba Tabba, Bikitia, Manono, Greenbushes, Mt Marion, etc. were all discovered over 60 years ago, largely by individual prospectors.

During the last lithium boom, if you wanted to find lithium, you toggled on/georeferenced the occurrences of old tin and tantalum workings, pegged the ground, and explored off that. Those days are done. Those are our current lithium mines and resources.

So 100 + years of mapping and exploring has found the current mines and resources and we are still in a lithium deficit (spod currently at ~$US2400). I agree with @usuallyYJLee , there isn’t enough mapped lithium around to meet his 2030 bull case. Literally all of the Canadian plays would need to come online. So naturally sodium and other battery types will take a portion of the market for this fact alone.

Zijin aren’t explorers. They are miners. Huge difference. A lot of countries don’t understand exploration. The idea of putting capital into what could be seen as a gamble is something they don’t get. They are happy to pay a premium for a nice resource, but the idea of spending a fraction of what they pay for a resource on a “gamble” seems silly.

I personally think Zijin (and any major) will struggle to find more greenfields lithium. All the easy low hanging fruit deposits are gone. It’s now largely a drilling under cover game. Once you’ve dusted your first 4-5million on drilling, you start to think maybe it’s just easier to buy these things for a premium. Problem is there aren't really many options available. Exploration for lithium has been on a halt for several years and despite spod at a very healthy price of ~US$2400, it still hasn't picked up yet. Better get exploring soon or big trouble.

To finish, on a side note, $PLS just hit an all time high! Cheers for reading!

[Dwayne Sparkes @sparkes_dwayne]

Lithium's dead they said. There's too much of it around they said.

Why was my account banned again?
😏

[Jason @JasonInAU]

#Lithium News: Morgan Stanley is now modelling an 80,000 tonne lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) DEFICIT IN THE LITHIUM MARKET FOR 2026

✳️ Macquarie’s top lithium sector picks are OUTPERFORM-RATED $PLS, $IGO & @ElevraLithium $ELV $ELVR

#EV #BESS $LAC
https://t.co/ejp4caBW56

[Jason @JasonInAU]

#Lithium News: #CATL to invest US$4.4B in mining arm to secure #EV #battery supply chain

➡️ Implications: Tightens supply for others and can push prices higher

#Lithium prices are only heading one way.......UP. ⚡🔋

@ElevraLithium $ELV $ELVR $LAC
#BESS https://t.co/Ka18sRw6Fh

[Joe Lowry @globallithium]

Desperate times call for desperate measures. @catl_official should buy @GanfengOfficial & or #Tianqi. Even with 100% of both, they would still need more #lithium.

[Jason @JasonInAU]

❌️ Iran War ❌️ Sends Chinese #EV and #Battery Exports Soaring

What's coming up next❓️
➡️ "Export growth will LIKELY ACCELERATE IN THE SECOND QUARTER "

#FullThrottle 。。。。。🚀

#Lithium #Producer @ElevraLithium $ELV $ELVR $LAC #BESS
https://t.co/rlglMHh1Wf

[Chris Meder @EVCurveFuturist]

China pours rocket fuel on the vehicle replacement cycle.

A 625B RMB ($90B) national trade-in subsidy launched for 2026, paying consumers directly on a first-come basis.

This isn’t just an #EV incentive — it accelerates ICE fleet retirement.

Old ICE out → EVs & PHEVs in.

[the technician @setc24242]

$ELV $MIN compare the pair 😆
$ELV retail SHs exit - while - $MIN BEOT SHs keep buying
$ELV SC4.9 US$998 $MIN SC5.4 US$1002 SC4.6 US$933 now tell me again my thesis is wrong - pushing low grade ore “on purpose” while prices are high and they stock pile so this is 2/2 now 💯💯

[Jason @JasonInAU]

@ElevraLithium $ELV $ELVR

North America's LARGEST hard rock lithium producer, Elevra will drop the Dec Quarterly on 28 Jan. What is the #1 catalyst that forces a re-rate? 👇

#Lithium #Producer

[Split Fusion @splitf]

@grok @rot13maxi @XFreeze Elevra lithium is the source, they are the largest lithium producer in north America. Currently they ship to corpus christi plant but they are also developing a mine in North Carolina.

[Split Fusion @splitf]

For those who are following $ELVR on NASDAQ, here are the targets

[Split Fusion @splitf]

$ELV $ELVR Many of you who read hotcopper posts for $ELV have read some of Silent-bubbles posts. Here is his 2026 predictions and is sticking to it.

[yyc @yycnimei]

gfex putting restrictions on #lithium futures

too many limit ups coming

[Thematica @Thematicafunds]

Lithium keeps grinding higher and the tape is starting to confirm what the fundamentals have been hinting at, the worst of the downturn is likely behind us and a new floor is forming. #ESS

[Vince Langman @LangmanVince]

😂😂😂😂😂👇