Richard Larsen

Meteorologist and Fisherman

[P a u l ◉ @SkylineReport]

One of the biggest misconceptions about climate science is that scientists only predicted warming.

They didn't.

They predicted a specific pattern of warming.

If greenhouse gases are trapping heat, we should observe:

✓ Troposphere warming

✓ Stratosphere cooling

✓ Nights warming faster than days

✓ Winters warming faster than summers

✓ Arctic warming faster than the rest of Earth

Scientists predicted these fingerprints decades ago.

Then they found them.

That's why climate science isn't built on a single temperature graph.

It's built on multiple independent predictions that turned out to be correct.

The question isn't whether Earth warmed.

The question is why the warming looks exactly like greenhouse-gas warming.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

There’s been a lot of chatter about the cold blue blob in the North Atlantic lately. @rahmstorf just published a paper very recently. The cold blob (warming hole) is not new. But perhaps against the backdrop of blazing red El Niño maps, people are noticing it more. That’s good. It’s a big deal, a canary in the coal mine. Here’s a level headed discussion on the latest science on the #AMOC - potential collapse - yes the cold blue blob in the N Atlantic is very likely due to a slowing of that vital circulation which is responsible for 25% of Northward heat transport. That’s a lot. So any major disruption is a major problem. Maybe watch it at like 1.25-1.5X the speed because my pace was a little slow.

[P a u l ◉ @SkylineReport]

🚨 "Climate has always changed."

Correct.

And because climate has always changed, scientists know what natural climate change looks like.

They know what changes from solar cycles look like.

They know what volcanic forcing looks like.

They know what orbital cycles look like.

And today's warming doesn't match any of them.

What it DOES match is a planet trapping more heat as greenhouse gases rise.

The fingerprints are everywhere:

📈 The lower atmosphere is warming while the upper atmosphere cools.

📈 Nights are warming faster than days.

📈 Land is warming faster than oceans.

📈 Oceans are accumulating record amounts of heat.

📈 Ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice are retreating worldwide.

Most importantly:

Climate models using only natural factors fail to reproduce the warming we've observed since the mid-20th century.

Add human greenhouse gas emissions and the models suddenly match reality.

"Climate has always changed" is true.

But it's not evidence against human-caused climate change.

It's evidence that scientists know how to identify what is causing climate change.

And after testing the alternatives, the answer is the same one reached by NASA, NOAA, the IPCC, and virtually every major scientific academy on Earth:

Human activity is warming the planet.

That's not a hoax.

That's the conclusion the evidence leaves standing.

[Kutay Mıhlıardıç @KutayMihliardic]

🌍 DOĞRU BİLİNEN YANLIŞLAR #47: "Dünyanın iklimi geçmişte hep değişmiş, yeri gelmiş ısınmış, yeri gelmiş buzul çağları olmuş. Şimdiki de o doğal döngülerden biri, çok abartıyorsunuz." ❌

​🔸 Bunu diyenler çok haklı bir bilimsel gerçeği (Dünyanın iklim döngülerini) alıp, tamamen yanlış bir sonuca varmak için sos olarak kullanıyor. Evet, Dünya milyarlarca yıldır defalarca ısındı ve soğudu. Ancak kaçırdıkları kritik bir fark var: 👉 HIZ ve SEBEP.

🌡️​ Doğal Döngü vs. İnsan Etkisi⁉️
Geçmişteki iklim değişiklikleri (Milankovitch döngüleri, güneş aktiviteleri vb.) on binlerce, hatta yüz binlerce yıla yayılan yavaş süreçlerdi. Canlıların adaptasyon süresi vardı. Bugün yaşadığımız küresel ısınma ise sanayi devriminden bu yana, yani sadece son 150-200 yılda gerçekleşti.

⚠️ Başka bir deyişle, Dünya daha önce hiç bu kadar kısa sürede bu kadar radikal ısınmadı!👇

[Leela Gray @LeelaJGray]

You can't solve problems you refuse to measure.

Yet this month, 900 ocean monitoring instruments are being physically pulled out of the water. A $368 million system. A decade to build. Designed to run 15 more years.

Gone.

This network tracked hurricane intensity, coastal flooding, marine heatwaves, and sea level rise. The data was free, public and used in over 500 scientific publications. Congress tried to stop it... twice. They got overruled anyway.

For a coastal community like FL-13 that just lived through Helene, this isn't abstract. This is the difference between an evacuation order that comes in time and one that doesn't.

Florida deserves a representative who fights for the science that protects us, not one who looks the other way while it gets dismantled.

#LeelaGrayforCongress #LeelaJGray

https://t.co/8SBFNnsFcU

[Chris Gloninger, CCM, CBM @ChrisGloninger]

You think sea level rise is melting ice. New study in Science Advances: the biggest driver is heat - warming water expands (43% of the rise). And it's accelerating. The cause: fossil fuels. #ClimateChange #SeaLevelRise #Oceans #ClimateScience #FossilFuels

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

I'm afraid that this is why the US administration wants to shut down ocean observations: they don't want the people to know what is happening in our oceans, as it does not fit their ideology and the interests of their fossil fuel industry funders.

https://t.co/G1E5zXdyid

[Brad Panovich @wxbrad]

Millions of Bats on Radar in Texas. Right around sunset, they take off from caves and under bridges each night at sunset. There are so many that they routinely appear on Doppler radar. #txwx

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Watch as a very odd and amplified pattern Omega Block pattern torments forecasters and everyone in its way for the next two weeks! Winter 🥶 in summer in the Northeast! Tropical moisture poised for #Florida but instead shoved into the western Gulf! All kinds of shifts that make a forecaster pull one’s hair out, all due to a very high amplitude blocky pattern over Central Canada. The result is Warm Central Canada, Cold air pours into Eastern Canada and the Eastern US Seaboard, and Tropical moisture in Gulf forced into Texas instead of Florida.

[Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein]

THEY ARE SO STUPID!

This is the most embarrassing thing I have ever seen.

Burgum: When the sun goes down, solar panels produce zero electricity. The whole machine doesn't work.

Rep. Huffman: I request to enter into the record this amazing new technology that apparently the Secretary is unaware of. It's a battery.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

A heat humdinger!
Besides model agreement about the upcoming El Nino being strong or "super" - another clue is observing it as it takes shape in real time. Watch from late Feb to now as the subsurface heat - with anomalies in the +8C range now - roll across the Equatorial Pacific eastward and upward - along the 20C isotherm, a proxy for the thermocline (sharp boundary between cold water below and warm water above). That heat will soon emerge on the surface in the central-east Pacific boosting the El Nino development.
On a side note: I feel the word "humdinger" is underappreciated and underutilized.
Thanks @cyclonicwx for the cool GFX!

[Chris Gloninger, CCM, CBM @ChrisGloninger]

AMOC is weakening. New Potsdam Institute study: once it collapses, it stays collapsed. The point of no return was 350ppm CO₂. We crossed that in 1988. We're at 430 today. Without the Gulf Stream: US East Coast winters get extreme. Europe loses 7°C. Southern Ocean releases 83 gigatonnes of CO₂. The fossil fuel industry knew about AMOC in the 1980s. Same decade we crossed 350. The EPA just stopped regulating the emissions driving it.
#AMOC #ClimateChange #GulfStream #Science #Meteorologist

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

I attended classes taught by the Godfather of Climate Science at Columbia. The fact that he nailed the warming “exactly” 45 years prior should be a pretty iron clad signal that climate scientists know what the heck they are doing and the science is incredibly solid. Putting all the other robust evidence aside, what are the chances that his prediction was just coincidence?

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

ERA-5 data is in. March was indeed the warmest on record in the US. But what’s even more astonishing is the trend. Since 1940 March in the US has warmed 7.2°F (that’s like 9° per century and accelerating!) Do the math on what this means for future generations if it continues. The pace of warming is remarkable.

[Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_]

As the first reanalysis data become available, I think I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that the March 2026 heatwave will go down as the most anomalously extreme heat event ever observed at any time of year in the southwestern U.S.

[Matthew Todd 🌏🔥 @MrMatthewTodd]

Because almost no one in the media seems remotely concerned about climate change I sometimes think I’m going mad.
This is Tenerife tonight. The island is under a red alert.

Climate change is increasing rainfall intensity across the world: fact.

[Richard Larsen @splitrock10]

@WeatherProf Thanks for reporting on this. These are just crazy temperatures for so early in the year. What will 2026 bring next? The developing El Niño is just getting started putting more heat into the atmosphere.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Never seen anything like this. 200+ monthly records set today alone! Every pink dot means a city set its new all-time highest March temperature! That’s around 570 new monthly records in the last 4 days. Some set multiple times. By far the most rogue #heatwave the US has experienced in memory.

[The Global Warmer🔥🌏 🔥 @TheGlobalWarmer]

This is cartoonish.

A +21°F (+11.7°C) national anomaly over the 1991–2020 baseline is the kind of number you’d expect from a broken model run… not reality.

Yet here we are.

March 20th and the entire country looks like late May (or worse). Records falling coast to coast, warmth saturating everyregion.

But sure—tell me more about how this is “natural variability.” 🤣

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@BianchiWeather I calculated the rarity of this given the 100+ years of records. Of course it’s much more likely now-a-days