Splitrule

Independent prediction market research. Compare normalized live prices + odds, fees, and contract rules across every venue (yes, every). Launching Q4 '26.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

The current Splitrule app will go offline soon as we transition services for v2.

Coming: significantly expanded PM + sportsbook unified market coverage, normalized fees and rules, and more. Completely free.

Targeting later in Q4. Field Notes research will stay live.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

Dedicated clearing matters because margin, collateral, and liquidation terms shape the cost and risk of a position.

The announcement doesn't specify those yet. Existing @tradexyz HIP-3 markets stay unchanged. US approval is still required.

https://t.co/sxUftDaeK3

[Hyperliquid @HyperliquidX]

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and trade[XYZ] have announced their plan to use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US traders across crypto, equities, commodities, foreign exchange, and other real-world assets, subject to regulatory approvals. ICE operates NYSE and some of the largest exchanges and clearing houses globally.

In this structure:
+ Hyperliquid serves as the underlying technology infrastructure via HIP-3*
+ trade[XYZ] designs and implements the markets
+ ICE operates the regulated market and clearing structure

Existing trade[XYZ] HIP-3 markets will remain unchanged.

Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

Trading on @HyperliquidX today wouldn't automatically qualify you for ICE[XYZ].

The proposed US market would require KYC/AML checks and access through a member futures broker.

Your broker's participation and your account eligibility would determine access.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Polymarket Interesting to note that consumer spending and private investment together grew 4.9% annualized. Domestic demand stayed strong while trade weighed on the total.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Kalshi A sweep here would mean holding Georgia and Michigan and flipping Maine and North Carolina. With the rest unchanged, the Democratic caucus reaches 49 seats leaving two more pickups needed for 51.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

PolyMap on Polymarket US puts seven Senate picks into one trade.

Both scenarios here give Democrats a majority. The original Yes contract settles at $1 in one and $0 in the other, with the difference being Maine.

From @Polymarket, spotted via @primo_data.

https://t.co/nBIdQzFoPW

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

No new Fed rate projections today. The statement arrives at 2 p.m. ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30.

We're watching whether December’s hike contract gains or loses ground through those announcements.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

If the Fed holds today, watch December.

Polymarket US asks at 10:47 a.m. ET are at 95¢ for unchanged rates today, 76¢ for a quarter-point hike in December.

Today’s guidance can move that contract even if rates stay unchanged.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

Both books showed a 1¢ spread. Offers at the best ask totaled about $99,500 for October’s hold and $2,400 for December’s hike.

The same spread can sit above very different amounts available at that price.

[Sam Schwartz @samschwartz71]

Yet another record-breaking weekend.

@Kalshi set its single-day volume record on Saturday at $5.3B, @Polymarket (US + DeFi) set its record on Sunday at $1.1B, and @DraftKings (DKeX), @Novig, and @Underdog (UDX) all set theirs on Sunday too.

@Kalshi ranks No. 1 and @Polymarket ranks No. 2 no matter how you look at the data. Below them, the order shifts depending on whether combos are included.

Total matched contracts, last 7 days:
3) @DraftKings (DKeX) ($1.4B)
4) @Novig ($833M)
5) @cryptocom ($565M)
6) @Underdog (UDX) ($553M)
7) @RotheraMarkets ($315M)

Total matched contracts excluding combos, last 7 days:
3) @Novig ($413M)
4) @cryptocom ($340M)
5) @RotheraMarkets ($315M)
6) @DraftKings (DKeX) ($300M)
7) @Underdog (UDX) ($119M)

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@mansourtarek_ Great news!

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Polymarket Kalshi’s headliner market has already resolved Yes on the announcement. Polymarket’s performance market is still open because Jay-Z has to perform live and in person at halftime for that one to resolve Yes.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

The rivalry between @Kalshi and @Polymarket goes deeper than volume. More exchanges and service providers are joining the race to power the apps people trade through.

Our latest Field Notes maps the distribution race and the infrastructure behind it:

https://t.co/nm3PnqcgWO

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Kalshi The cross-venue comparison is interesting here, Newsom is around 15% on both but AOC is 14% on Kalshi and 17.1% on Polymarket, where she leads. Most of the difference in who’s favorite comes from AOC’s pricing.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@Polymarket The coalition talks matter as much as Tuesday’s vote here. If another election is called before a PM takes office, Polymarket US carries the market forward. Kalshi’s equivalent resolves every named candidate No. Similar headlines, different exposure to a political deadlock.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

I (and think everyone should) use both. Polls measure voter preferences and markets put a price on the eventual outcome including turnout and polling error. Traders also read the polls so agreement between them isn’t independent confirmation. It does make any divergence more interesting though!

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

The rule uses the mark updates immediately before and after expiry.

In this example, 99,900 + (1/3 x 300) = 100,000. Equality counts as Yes.

https://t.co/4jb4lcLOjI

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

A BTC mark update after expiry can help decide the payout on @HyperliquidX.

Example: $99,900 one second before, $100,200 two seconds after.

Its recurring BTC rule interpolates to $100,000 at expiry. A $100,000 target settles Yes.

[Splitrule @splitruleapp]

@rajivatbarnard @nextpredictio @chucktodd @geoffreyvs @PredictIt The DD experiment mentioned here is the bit I'd love to see more on. Comparing the model with and without market prices would help show what the market adds beyond the other inputs