Highly Regarded Star 🪨

Starfish on @X | NYC M&A

Long strong businesses, occasionally buy degenerate calls. Building a Fintwit win-rate tracker with unemployed SWEs

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

i think people are still massively underestimating $QS at ~$4.5b MC

this is no longer just “battery tech” $QS is sitting directly inside what ai factories actually are:

a $20b–$40b+ per GW capital stack (power, cooling, ups, compute, networking, uptime)

Assuming: 40–75 GW of global AI buildout this decade and ~$1.2t–$2.6t of total infrastructure CAPEX

if $QS improves system-level AI factory economics by just 1–2% via:
>power density gains
>reduced cooling burden
>smaller ups footprint
>higher rack utilization
>higher uptime

you’re optimizing a multi b scale infrastructure layer. if the value created ~$12b–$52b (based on CAPEX * assumed improvement)

if $QS captures even 15–20% of that layer that'll bring an additional ~$0.5b–$10b+ in earnings potential

at ~25x earnings
~$11b–$65b equity value
~$19–$108/share range

if the technology is as good as they say it is (cannot very im no battery expert) i think the 1-2% estimate for value add is a conservative assumption..

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$QS: 🚨NEW BLOGPOST - POWERING THE AI FACTORY (PART 1)

https://t.co/C0ZIHAnBlb

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@MMMTwealth im sorry but when you have this quant as your CEO execution risk doesnt exist. long $AAOI

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@thebrmola @Defiantclient2 good man. first mega contract is imminent my friends... long $QS

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

i think people are still massively underestimating $QS at ~$4.5b MC

this is no longer just “battery tech” $QS is sitting directly inside what ai factories actually are:

a $20b–$40b+ per GW capital stack (power, cooling, ups, compute, networking, uptime)

Assuming: 40–75 GW of global AI buildout this decade and ~$1.2t–$2.6t of total infrastructure CAPEX

if $QS improves system-level AI factory economics by just 1–2% via:
>power density gains
>reduced cooling burden
>smaller ups footprint
>higher rack utilization
>higher uptime

you’re optimizing a multi b scale infrastructure layer. if the value created ~$12b–$52b (based on CAPEX * assumed improvement)

if $QS captures even 15–20% of that layer that'll bring an additional ~$0.5b–$10b+ in earnings potential

at ~25x earnings
~$11b–$65b equity value
~$19–$108/share range

if the technology is as good as they say it is (cannot very im no battery expert) i think the 1-2% estimate for value add is a conservative assumption..

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$QS: 🚨NEW BLOGPOST - POWERING THE AI FACTORY (PART 1)

https://t.co/C0ZIHAnBlb

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

just got through the transcript...

"I would say that we consider ourselves in that commercialization phase now. In Q3, we started receiving payments. That first one was from the Volkswagen Group. Our business model is one of collaboration and licensing."

"At the stage before that is the fourth OEM, which is a technology evaluation agreement, which we just completed successfully with that fourth top 10 global OEM. They had teams on the ground. They're making comparisons with us versus other technologies. That ended successfully. That's the automotive side of the story there."

we are not bullish enough on $QS

https://t.co/j19L8HCKXb

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$QS: The Eagle Line is going well enough that @QuantumScapeCo is able to provide B samples to non-automotive sectors. 👀

"Just because I mentioned one of the four goals, the other three would be to expand into other high-value markets where we think the technology is a great fit. The adjacencies we've heard us talk more about in the last two earnings calls are aerospace and defense and AI data centers. We can talk more about that if you'd like. By the way, it isn't a coincidence that we started talking about that more with us inaugurating the pilot line. That's the first time that we have line of sight into parts supply, beyond VW, beyond those other OEMs, where we have that sampling-type capacity to engage others. Demonstrating scalable production off that Eagle pilot line."

- Kevin Hettrich, CFO at the 16th Annual Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference

https://t.co/vJlA91Ssx0

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@Defiantclient2 @QuantumScapeCo yea thats hot

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@spac_attack @kingtutcap i think yes. long $QS
https://t.co/maqAQU78gy

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

i think people are still massively underestimating $QS at ~$4.5b MC

this is no longer just “battery tech” $QS is sitting directly inside what ai factories actually are:

a $20b–$40b+ per GW capital stack (power, cooling, ups, compute, networking, uptime)

Assuming: 40–75 GW of global AI buildout this decade and ~$1.2t–$2.6t of total infrastructure CAPEX

if $QS improves system-level AI factory economics by just 1–2% via:
>power density gains
>reduced cooling burden
>smaller ups footprint
>higher rack utilization
>higher uptime

you’re optimizing a multi b scale infrastructure layer. if the value created ~$12b–$52b (based on CAPEX * assumed improvement)

if $QS captures even 15–20% of that layer that'll bring an additional ~$0.5b–$10b+ in earnings potential

at ~25x earnings
~$11b–$65b equity value
~$19–$108/share range

if the technology is as good as they say it is (cannot very im no battery expert) i think the 1-2% estimate for value add is a conservative assumption..

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@cyberprince_rwo currently enough to live like a king in Colombia, soon enough to live like a king in Thailand / Portugal

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@Defiantclient2 your right, this is just the data center angle.. not even looking into the defense contracts $QS could be cooking up (albeit related and has some TAM overlap)

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

i brought more $QS dis week

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@aleabitoreddit as long as demand doesnt leave my $QS $ABCL $AAOI $MRVL $NBIS shares people can go buy all the $SPCX trash they want

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

$ABCL looks like it wants 14 by EOY

Based on what i collected from X:

>Peter Thiel early investor & former board member
>CEO Carl Hansen is a stud (founder, visionary tech-biotech hybrid)
>recently added Victor Sandor to board (helped commercialize many drugs at megacaps)
>AI + microfluidics antibody discovery platform crushing hard targets
>Lead asset ABCL635 (NK3R Ab for menopause hot flashes): Positive Ph1, Ph2 topline data expected Q3 2026 (big catalyst)

Ideally we stay above 5 but we close above 6.5 we're flying

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@JFergistheman @CKCapitalxx still early for $AAOI if your timeline is 1y+ imo

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

im in $KEEL 1/27/2027 7C at 1.77 and commons at 5.7

[Pravash @pterrider]

$KEEL update :
AWS just posted a Data Center Manager job for Moses Lake, WA. The posting literally says “facility still under development.” That’s KEEL’s site. Construction starts June 8.

Here’s why I’m 100% convinced it’s Amazon:

Wayne Duso — KEEL’s board member — is a former AWS VP who ran Amazon’s data center infrastructure. He didn’t join KEEL’s board to bring other company deals. That’s your first signal.

Second — the job posting mentions GovCloud. AWS GovCloud is the federal government cloud region based in the Pacific Northwest. Moses Lake feeds directly into that corridor. This isn’t a commercial deal. This is federal infrastructure.

Third — Turner Construction is confirmed as the GC at Moses Lake. Turner builds for hyperscalers. Wayne Duso’s AWS relationships are the direct line.
Now look at the timeline this week:

•June 1: All permits cleared
•June 4: $400M convertible raise + Coverage Letter to Turner
•June 8: Construction starts
•Today: AWS hiring the manager for the facility

The 8-K hasn’t dropped yet. But AWS hiring for a facility “still under development” in Moses Lake is the announcement before the announcement.

Watch EDGAR. $KEEL 🎯

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@KobeissiLetter

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@financialjuice

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@KaungZayHan2 could be as simple as both parties agreeing to an NDA.. suppose only time will tell

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

i didn’t know this before but “Volkswagen ended up investing in every single one of [ $QS ] private rounds” (~13:30)

that doesn’t read like normal customer diligence cycles anymore, more like an OEM repeatedly keeping exposure to a platform as it derisks over time

and there’s also the real cash flow coming in outside of production“[ $QS has ] done a licensing agreement… up to $130m in prepay + royalties” (22:00). wow...

that’s not cell revenue, it’s payments tied to IP access, engineering work, and tech transfer before full scale manufacturing

put together with the continued buildout around IP + corporate counsel hiring, it starts to look like a business that is formalizing licensing and defensibility as part of the core model (not just waiting for volume production to show up)

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$QS: 🚨QUANTUMSCAPE TARGETS AI DATA CENTERS AND DEFENSE & AEROSPACE APPLICATIONS IN PARALLEL TO AUTOMOTIVES

CFO Kevin Hettrich confirms that, because of the Eagle Line, @QuantumScapeCo for the first time ever is able to produce sufficient volume to satisfy a lot of inbound interest and allows the company to target beyond automotives such as AI data centers and defense & aerospace.

The writing is on the wall.

I truly expect press release(s) this year in 2026 related to the company's official expansion beyond EVs, such as agreements or investments from the data center and/or defense industries. Perhaps @LockheedMartin, based on the new Board additions?

"The other momentum piece is in February we just announced our first highly automated pilot line which I think is a game changer for us in that you have an embodiment of a highly automated process by which we make that first product, the QSE-5.

Customers and partners can come visit it and see its level of maturity and kinda train on it for tech transfer. It helps us produce much much more parts to satisfy a lot of inbound interest.

We mentioned on our last earnings call that we work with 6 automotive companies in some flavour of agreement, including 4 of the Top 10 global OEMs, VW of course being the most mature with that collaboration licensing agreement.

And because of the pilot line, for the first time we have sufficient volume to, in parallel, go after high value-add applications adjacent to automotive which we think is AI data centers and defense & aerospace applications."

- Kevin Hettrich, CFO of @QuantumScapeCo

Listen for yourself starting at 23:00 👇

https://t.co/5NiPFUfxti

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@asymmetricali @StockMKTNewz yea continuing to scoop up every dip on AI tickers like $MRVL $DRAM $AAOI $NBIS seems to be the easiest long

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@FirstSquawk the fucking blue triangle mafia needs to chillout, im leveraged on AI stonkers

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@WarMonitor3

[Highly Regarded Star 🪨 @SpongeQuant]

@SpencerHakimian