altoshi

[altoshi @stablealt]

Lighter getting CFTC approval is not priced in

[altoshi @stablealt]

@pondermint If you are a legal consumer brokerage in US, like Robinhood, you'd integrate lowest-cost exchange provider for perps and it is Lighter, for now

[altoshi @stablealt]

@androolloyd @DromesLaw all orders submission is going through a few api addresses

[altoshi @stablealt]

75% of Hyperliquid perps traders are unprofitable

99.9% of Hyperliquid spot hodloors are profitable

[altoshi @stablealt]

75% of Hyperliquid addresses are net unprofitable.

When you see a trader-KOL with smart face on your feed, there is roughly a 3/4 chance that it lost money on perps. Once you understand how financial markets work, you will quit all discretional trading.

Most .hl accounts you see in your feed are net unprofitable (go check their addresses) and the only ones profitable were either quantitatives (like @0xLoris) or were on the positive side of variance, i.e., luck (e.g., @NMTD8)

p.s., if you solely rely on 'gut feeling' (luck), mathematically less painful for you would be playing a casino.

A core reason discretionary traders suffer losses is market efficiency. In highly liquid and informationally dense markets, like commodities, large-cap cryptocurrencies, equities, and major indices, new information is priced into mark prices at remarkable speed. The news you just read? Already priced in. The technical indicator you rely on? Also priced in.

Quantitative firms and exchanges operate with superior infrastructure, data access, and execution capabilities, making it exceptionally difficult (almost impossible) for manual traders to sustain an edge.

Mathematically, the structure of these markets favor makers and systematic participants, while takers, particularly uninformed discretionary ones, face a persistent negative expected value, with the narrow exception of non-directional strategies with minimized costs, such as points farming.

If you're an uniformed discretional trader (99.9% of readers), the most +EV course of action may be counterintuitive but is well-supported by the data:

1) Delete all trading apps (esp. mobile ones)
2) Quit all trading
3) Be on the side of the profitable exchanges (i.e., get exposure to them via their coinized shares, such as $HYPE, $LIT, $BNB)
4) Become a maker (p.s., providing exit liquidity through AMMs or retail tools like treadfi is extremely negative expected value for you)

Hyperliquid

[altoshi @stablealt]

@0xcarlisle marketsxyz HIP-3 winding down with USDH is not priced in

[altoshi @stablealt]

@dschamis technologies which make humans more productive vs the technology which replicates human’s abilities in cheaper, faster and better way (maybe not today, but think in 3 years) are not the same thing

[altoshi @stablealt]

@izebel_eth @papertrade_xyz @blurr hmm it looks like a ponzified GMX. Will run a bot trading BTC 1000x randomly and earning from variance with PAPER emissions

[altoshi @stablealt]

@izebel_eth @papertrade_xyz @blurr how is it different from GMX

[altoshi @stablealt]

@fuegonft Uniswap

[altoshi @stablealt]

@lttlanna if XLP is not a backstop, why don’t you charge a liquidation fee which would be shared with XLP holders without all these tricks?

It’s not a liquidity provider, it’s a liquidation intermediate

[altoshi @stablealt]

@0xLoris @LorisTools

[altoshi @stablealt]

@exitpumpBTC most price discovery for BTC happens at OTCs, BTC spot OBs are mostly noise

[altoshi @stablealt]

EMA, RSI, MACD, etc. are price-based indicators and don't give you any information rather than the price in another form.

This type of indicators don't give you an information which may make the price prediction more precise, because... they're price-based.

If you were CZ / Binance MM and wanted the bull trend to start, wouldn't you liquidate longs (take their inventory) before pushing the price higher (on spot)?

We haven't seen longs huntings, in this 2mo range, all lows were higher-lows without liq hunts. 25/28 accuracy in the last 5 years.

[altoshi @stablealt]

Jeff’s close friend at university was Vlad’s co-founder at Lunchclub

The world is not that big

[Colossus @colossusmag]

This is the story of Hyperliquid, the most profitable startup per employee on earth, told from a guarded office in Singapore.

Last year, its team of 11 generated $900 million in profit. It's 3 years old, has never taken a dollar of venture capital, and is beginning to change how century-old markets work.

Its founder, Jeffrey Yan (@chameleon_jeff), had never taken a physics class when he picked up a textbook at 16. Two years later, he won gold at the International Physics Olympiad. In 2019, he started trading with $10,000 from a living room in Puerto Rico—working off a television because he didn't own a monitor.

Within 3 years, he was running one of the largest anonymous crypto trading firms.

Then he shut it down. Yan was rich and free, but he had spent years inside crypto, watching it betray itself. Bitcoin's central premise was decentralization. Yet the biggest exchanges were centralized. Crypto kept reintroducing the dependence on trust it was built to eliminate. He set out to create what should have existed.

Hyperliquid is a blockchain with a trading exchange on top, and anyone can build on it. Yan's vision is to house all of finance. In 3 years, it has done over $4 trillion in volume. And in the past few months, it has begun to outgrow crypto.

Markets for oil, silver, and the S&P 500 now trade on Hyperliquid around the clock, weekends included, and are growing roughly 40% week on week. When the US and Israel bombed Iran on a Saturday in February, Hyperliquid was the venue traders turned to.

Hyperliquid's success has cost Yan his freedom. He works out of a secret office in Singapore and cannot travel without two bodyguards. Even the team's housekeeper doesn't know what they do.

In January, @domcooke spent a week at their office. Read his profile on Yan and @HyperliquidX below.

[altoshi @stablealt]

@vnovakovski @andyyy @robbieklages @therollupco Lighter

[altoshi @stablealt]

@androolloyd how many builders are unprofitable

[altoshi @stablealt]

75% of Hyperliquid addresses are net unprofitable.

When you see a trader-KOL with smart face on your feed, there is roughly a 3/4 chance that it lost money on perps. Once you understand how financial markets work, you will quit all discretional trading.

Most .hl accounts you see in your feed are net unprofitable (go check their addresses) and the only ones profitable were either quantitatives (like @0xLoris) or were on the positive side of variance, i.e., luck (e.g., @NMTD8)

p.s., if you solely rely on 'gut feeling' (luck), mathematically less painful for you would be playing a casino.

A core reason discretionary traders suffer losses is market efficiency. In highly liquid and informationally dense markets, like commodities, large-cap cryptocurrencies, equities, and major indices, new information is priced into mark prices at remarkable speed. The news you just read? Already priced in. The technical indicator you rely on? Also priced in.

Quantitative firms and exchanges operate with superior infrastructure, data access, and execution capabilities, making it exceptionally difficult (almost impossible) for manual traders to sustain an edge.

Mathematically, the structure of these markets favor makers and systematic participants, while takers, particularly uninformed discretionary ones, face a persistent negative expected value, with the narrow exception of non-directional strategies with minimized costs, such as points farming.

If you're an uniformed discretional trader (99.9% of readers), the most +EV course of action may be counterintuitive but is well-supported by the data:

1) Delete all trading apps (esp. mobile ones)
2) Quit all trading
3) Be on the side of the profitable exchanges (i.e., get exposure to them via their coinized shares, such as $HYPE, $LIT, $BNB)
4) Become a maker (p.s., providing exit liquidity through AMMs or retail tools like treadfi is extremely negative expected value for you)

Hyperliquid

[CoinAnk @CoinAnk]

📊According to the data from #CoinAnk's Hyperliquid Wallet Data, monitoring 287,190 addresses:

Profitable addresses: 59,411

Unprofitable addresses: 180,846

Percentage of unprofitable addresses: 75.27%

The overall long/short positions of CoinAnk’s monitored wallets are currently roughly neutral.

🔗：https://t.co/r1RrLJtAYP

[altoshi @stablealt]

About six months after the USDH proposal, Native Markets’ $USDH supply stands at $154.79 million across HyperEVM and HyperCore.

Over the same period, Paxos-issued $USDG circulating supply has reached $1.862 billion, an increase of about $1.3 billion since the USDH proposal.

Paxos USDG supply has grown by 8.4x more than Native Markets USDH during that timeframe.