@Betsycashmoney 'And it's not something you can realize until after the fact anyway' - don't agree, and not something most people who are into statistics would say.
Anyway, agree that prediction markets are sportsbooks and the nyk were mispriced. Smart bettors were indeed wrong!
@Betsycashmoney No, they are pretty close to the actual underlying probability (that's how sportsbooks make money). And if that wasn't the case a smartass wity a statistics degree would be able to exploit this and print millions. But, you can't...so you are wrong on this last point
@Betsycashmoney It's literally a sportsbook with more options that doesn't kick out winners. You can cherrypick countless other examples everyday of the exact same thing happening
@Betsycashmoney The 'forecast' you are referencing is not set by a 'prediction market'. I hope you are trolling, otherwise you must have got that degree from DeVry.
Math and logic aren't your strong suit. Take the L here. I also bet the nyk because I thought sports bettors were wrong