Jerome

Interested in investing, increasing my chess Elo, becoming conversational in Spanish and winning my fantasy football league.

[Jerome @starke9481]

https://t.co/u3cweF98bg

[Jerome @starke9481]

@bradthomas I'll be looking fwd to that. O and VICI are my top two REIT holdings.

[Bill @wabuffo]

$BRK - lots of posts about the amount of cash/T-Bills Buffett is now holding & speculation on it being a macro bet.

If you really want a forecast from Buffett on his estimate of forward returns on stocks, I'll give you a hint. Look at the footnotes on BRK's defined benefit pension plans.

Looking at the make-up of the pension assets - it appears Buffett leans in and favors a 63% allocation to equities and 37% to fixed income + other assets.

If we use, say, the 10-year yield as the expected return on the fixed income portion of the pension plan portfolio, then we can impute Buffett's expectation for forward returns on equities.

Let's use an example. In 2024, the 10-year Tsy yield averaged 4.21% x 37% allocation to fixed income = 1.56% return contribution to total pension plan assets.

That means the remaining contribution from equities (which as we said is 63% of total pension plan assets) is:
(5.90% - 1.56%)/63% = 6.89%.

If we do this math for the last decade, here's what my back-of-the-envelope estimate is for Buffett's forecast for expected forward returns from stocks would be:

2024: 6.89% 2019: 8.90%
2023: 7.20% 2018: 8.45%
2022: 7.63% 2017: 8.79%
2021: 8.83% 2016: 8.60%
2020: 9.32% 2015: 9.06%

There you go - straight from the Old Man himself...

[Jim O'Shaughnessy @jposhaughnessy]

“You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.”
~Cormac McCarthy

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Warren Buffett investing masterclass in two minutes.

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Warren Buffett explains how Berkshire selects their stocks

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Warren Buffett on how to value a business .

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Warren Buffett (in 1994) on ignoring political and economic distractions.

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Li Lu’s recommend book list .

Seems like I’ve got a couple of books to add to my list.

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Every book Charlie Munger has recommended in Berkshire meetings since 1994

Source: CMQ Investing

[Christopher Bloomstran @ChrisBloomstran]

One of the very best perspectives on investing ever uttered. Of course it’s courtesy the best investor ever. Needed wisdom in a time of political chaos.

[The Investing for Beginners Podcast @IFB_podcast]

Buffett on the benefits of reading 10ks.

5 minutes worth your time.

[Mike Brown @mbrown_co]

The greatest motivational speaker of all time:

Jim Rohn.

He gave 6,000 speeches in 39 countries, became a millionaire by 31, and mentored a young Tony Robbins to greatness.

10 life-changing quotes that you'll never forget:

[SportsCenter @SportsCenter]

HISTORY 👏

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

10 Nuggets to advance your career & life

1. Be easy to work with:

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger in 2019: "It's a big mistake to fill yourself with resentment and hatred and so on. It's such a simple idea, but so many people ruin their lives unnecessarily.

Envy is such a stupid thing to have because you can't possibly have any fun with that particular sin.

Who in the hell ever had any fun in envy?

What good could envy possibly do for you?

Somebody is always going to be doing better than you are. It's really stupid [to be envious]. My system in life is to figure out what's really stupid — and then avoid it.

It doesn't make me popular, but it prevents a lot of trouble." $BRK.A $BRK.B

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Rinse and repeat

[Jerome @starke9481]

@ansgarjohn I'll be there. Heading up Friday.

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger on free-market capitalism. $BRK.A $BRK.B