Stats AJ

Process over Picks!

[Pete Fiutak @PeteFiutak]

The student call of Iowa's win over Michigan ... Equal parts the greatest call of any big play ever and “Settle down, Beavis”

https://t.co/6duoI5uxxh

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@GUnit_81 Good luck! Look forward to seeing you in the future

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@SmashSpotDFS I had it and still had a bad day. Thanks to Arch and Colorado Moore

[Jake @JakeCan72]

Harvard kids singing Radiohead’s “Creep.”

This could have gone very wrong.

Then the lead singer opens his mouth.

The Harvard Veritones have won at the International Championship of Collegiate A Cappella — the real-world competition that inspired Pitch Perfect.

Turn the sound on for this one.

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@RyanMcGuffey @spshoot He had a very bad game

[Kevin Roth @KevinRothWx]

🏈☔️ A very, very busy day in NFL Weather.

I’ve just updated the NFL Weather forecast on MySportsWeather: https://t.co/vHgbmLSP44

It’s 100% free. Any RT’s or likes are hugely appreciated!

[Visit Chicago Southland @VisitSouthland]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Visit Chicago Southland Welcomes New Meetings Market Manager Vincent Belcaster

FULL RELEASE HERE: https://t.co/4TImLAuLno

[Projection Sports by Tyler Markley @ProjSports]

This week's viewing grids

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@BradPowers7 Perfect

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@TShoeIndex You do good work and the industry needs more quality content. I’m sure you’ll find a good platform.

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@Josh_Insights @VSiNLive Good luck Josh. You have great content.

[Josh Appelbaum @Josh_Insights]

Some personal news...

I was let go by @VSiNLive

It's been an incredible journey over the past 7 years, starting with a "tryout" writing the daily newsletter in 2019, to being featured on The Lombardi Line and Betting Across America, hosting the Market Insights and Morning Bets Podcasts, joining DraftKings and, of course, writing thousands of daily sharp reports in between. 

Along the way, I gained invaluable experience, not only as a bettor but as a person. I learned how the industry works inside and out, discovered the magic of Las Vegas firsthand, survived COVID and, best of all, made countless friendships that I will take with me forever.

A special thank you to one of the true "good guys" who always had my back, @Bill80

I love betting. I love the sweat. And I’m excited for what’s next.

Stay tuned…

[Ryan Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL]

NFL Week 1 Observations

Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37
- The Bears ran for 291 yards and threw for 261 while scoring 59 points, yet, as insane as this sounds, I wouldn’t call this a ceiling game for this group. Chicago fumbled on their first drive, suffered early penalties. Ben Johnson went for it on their own 20ish in the first half and Chicago didn’t convert.

- I would say it was a ceiling game for Chicago’s run game, which saw both Swift and Monangai go over 100 yards, while Caleb Williams added 65, including a few runs that less than 5 QBs in the league could swing.

- Carolina has a weak pass rush, but Caleb Williams looked like he took a step forward in terms of command of this offense, and it was a good game for him from an accuracy standpoint (he had at least two throw aways on reps that would have been sacks for most QBs). Caleb also made a check down in this contest while managing a muddy pocket that was every encouraging.

- Rome Odunze caught a downfield 50/50 ball while Williams was evading for a 47-yard gain. That exact dynamic is what Odunze brings to the table.

- I’ve always liked Kalif Raymond as a role player, but I wasn’t expecting him to go 8-84 on 9 targets.

- Chicago’s defense, however, was atrocious. A very inconsistent pass rush. A few blown coverages, including a long score to Jalen Coker that was a gimmie. Short to intermediate in breaking routes were free for most of the day. Not good.

- There was one bright spot on defense for Chicago: rookie safety Dillon Thieneman looks like a player.

- Bryce Young played well against a bad defense, but he looks like your classic trap quarterback, meaning you probably have to extend him, but you’re never going anywhere with him unless you have an all star team, and Carolina isn’t real close to fielding one of those.

- Ultimately I went into the season thinking Carolina isn’t going anywhere, and nothing I saw today gives me pause on that stance.

Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23

- The Ravens were the most complete team I saw on Sunday.

- Derrick Henry, who clearly doesn’t care that he’ll turn 33 this season, ran for 144 yards and 3 scores on 24 carries.. Lamar Jackson couldn’t have played much better. Not only did Zay Flowers go for 5-150-1 but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen him play better than he did here, before he left early with an injury.

- The Colts came out throwing, and were actually up 6-0, but Baltimore genuinely throttled them from that point forward in every week. Right now, I’m treating that as if I’m impressed by the Ravens, as I thought it might take some time for everything to gel.

Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31
- Crazy good game from Josh Allen given the opponent, I’d put the bulk of this effort on him and Buffalo’s offensive line playing up against a very tough opponent.

- There was an early play action from Buffalo on 2nd and 5 after a forced turnover that resulted in a sack. I’m very much a play action guy, but I hated that call/ design given the opponent. The next play call was a hook n ladder that worked, but didn’t convert third and long. From that point forward, I don’t have anything negative to say about Buffalo’s offensive play calling and I found it interesting that they were as aggressive as they were with downfield throws.

- Buffalo’s front four was impactful, Greg Rosseau in particular had a great game.

- I’d frame C.J. Stroud’s outing as scrappy, as Houston clearly has offensive line problems, in both phases, that cap what this offense can do. Despite that, Stroud made a few plays in this game and kept the Texans in what ended up being an unexpected shootout.

Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27

- It’s strange to say that in a game that hit 60 total points that neither offense was very good, but that was the case in Cincinnati.

- The Bengals were up by at least two scores for most of this contest.

- Both defenses scored, and Baker Mayfield had two pretty bad out of structure fumbles that played a huge role in this outcome. The first was returned for a score, and the other ended a would be Buccaneers scoring drive. He then had a third in the second half that resulted in a Bengals field goal.

- While Mayfield didn’t play well, I didn’t think much of Tampa’s offensive gameplan

- It’s worth noting that Bucky Irving had 7 receptions on 7 targets, while Tampa running backs only had 13 carries (8 for Irving, 5 for Kenny Gainwell).

- The Bengals front four had a good game, with four sacks and six QB hits against what I expected to be a top-10 offensive line in Tampa.

- Tampa held Ja’Marr Chase to 2-16 on 4 targets and Tee Higgins to 3-59 on 6.

Vikings 39, Packers 22
- Kyler Murray was knocked out early, I had the sound off but I’d guess a concussion. Carson Wentz played quite well in relief duty, with Justin Jefferson going for 8-92-2.

- Jordan Love played quite well for roughly 54 minutes, where the Packers actually had a fourth quarter lead in this contest. But he and the entire team had a relative meltdown in crunch time, which made this game look like a blowout, when in reality it was close the whole way, where Green Bay actually had the lead for the whole game after the first score until the roughly 6:30 mark in the fourth quarter.

- Before said meltdown, Green Bay enjoyed a number of explosive pass plays, with Christian Watson had a big game: 6-147-2.

- Green Bay had no success on the ground, while Jordan Love took 4 sacks and 15 QB hits.

Lions 31, Saints 30 OT
- Tyler Shough was borderline terrible for 40ish minutes, where it looked like Detroit was actively trying to stuff the short to intermediate middle of the field. Shough poured on production from there, ultimately throwing for 410 yards.

- I thought New Orleans offensive line played poorly through those first 40 minutes as well.

- I purposely did not look at Chris Olave’s numbers so that I could say if he had the most targets in the entire league in Week 1, it would not surprise me in the slightest.

- Devaughn Vele had his moments in this contest.

- Jahmyr Gibbs had 34 touches (29 carries, 5 receptions) for 186 total yards and two rushing touchdowns.

- Jameson Williams dropped a pretty tight window drop in on a deep shot, and an intermediate in.

- Jared Goff had a blindside sack/ fumble that was returned for a TD, that was then negated (I’d imagine by penalty, I did not have the sound on for that game)

- Goff was fine against a mediocre opponent, but he did lead a scoring drive to start overtime.

- The Saints answered with their own score, but then went for two and failed.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Atlanta Falcons 13
- The Steelers defense did their job here: 4 sacks, 5 QB hits, 2 Ints including T.J. Watt’s miraculous pick and return for a score.

- For the last two seasons I’ve consistently said that Aaron Rodgers has been better than public perception given his age: a few bad games per year, but mostly solid ones with a few spike weeks. Overall, pretty solid. I’ve said this whole offseason that I wish he retired after last season, and that remains my stance after Week 1.

- TE Darnell Washington had one of the most dominant stiff arms you’ll ever see in this game. I wish this guy had a TE1 gig, he’s always been one of my guys and I hated this landing spot because while he’s actually a perfect Steeler, he’s blocked by Freiermuth (who I’ve also always liked).

- Bijan Robinson had 21 carries for 83 yards and 8 receptions for 90 yards and a score. Bijan had 173 of the Atlanta Falcons 263 yards of offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars 34, Cleveland Browns 10
- I was already on the fence about this before this game, but I’d rather have Trevor Lawrence than Dak Prescott. Lawrence had a very good game, including a few impressive pressure management plays, but what I was looking for here was is the guy I saw last year the same guy this season? And the answer after one game is yes.

- That said, I would put most of this outcome on Cleveland being an unwatchable football team. The Browns offensive line was a catastrophe where any team with a quality front like Jacksonville looks like an unsolvable problem for Cleveland.

- The Browns defense has had pretty abnormal home/ road splits, but this group showed nothing in this game.

Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14
- Jacoby Brissett had a rock solid game here.

- Marvin Harrison Jr. had 1 catch for 33 yards, but it was an impressive one

- Tyler Algeier had 17 carries and 2 receptions to Jeremiyah Love’s 11 carries and 2 receptions.

- This game was 16-14 Cardinals in the fourth quarter when Arizona blocked a punt and scored two plays later from three yards out.

- The home loss for the Chargers is bad, but what’s infinitely more alarming to me was how this offensive line played, especially late. The interior OL looks like it may genuinely be bad, like potentially worst in the league bad.

- I saw very little from the run game, I saw very little margin created from Mike McDaniel. Ladd McConkey looked good before he left and I was happy to see David Njoku see some real action, but I have nothing else even mildly positive to say about the Chargers effort here.

New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10
- I did not like the Robert Saleh/ Brian Daboll hire from the jump, I have framed Tennessee’s offseason as a bad team’s offseason. But I was not expecting them to decisively lose to the Jets at home behind no offense. I do not overreact very often, but Saleh/ Daboll would already be in a position where I need to be convinced on why not to fire them before the end of the season.

- Shotty offensive line play continues for Tennessee, and I have very little else to say about what they did on offense, apart from it being hard to watch.

- The Jets have a good foundation on offense for a future quarterback, I’ve been saying that for a while, and that showed some here.

- Kenyon Sadiq didn’t have a monster stat line or anything, but I found his usage interesting for his first game. I’m treating him as a long term X-Factor in an overall skill group I quite like.

- Geno Smith was solid, this is a very good win for this franchise.

Las Vegas Raiders 27, Miami Dolphins 13
- If you are a Dolphins fan the season is already over. I picked them to go 1-16 and I saw nothing today to get me off that stance. If anything I think they are less likely to split with the Jets now than I did a week ago. The team has a handful of players that will be foundational pieces of their rebuild, but for this season, it’s bad and quite unwatchable.

- If there was one bright spot for Miami that wasn’t a known entity, it’s that Caleb Douglas had a good looking game.

- Ashton Jeanty had 23 carries for 102 yards and 6 receptions for 45 yards and two scores. He was the Raiders offense.

- Maxx Crosby is still a high-end pass rusher, while new additions like Kwity Paye and Nakobe Dean had a positive impact.

Eagles 24, Commanders 22
- Jalen Hurts played well, Dallas Goedert had a nice game, Dontavian Wicks caught a deep shot and Saquon Barkley looked somewhere between his peak two years ago and his down season in 2025 today. But all of that came against a pretty weak Commanders defensive roster.

- One positive for Philly is they were able to put together a fourth quarter scoring drive when they needed it, which is the kind of thing good teams do.

- Washington kept this close and they made things interesting late, against a better roster on the road, which is encouraging in its own right to a degree.

New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys
- This is a nice win for the Giants, but it’s a primetime home game against an average Cowboys team. Good win, definitely, but I wouldn’t overcount it.

- Jaxson Dart had a very efficient game, in both phases, against a mediocre Cowboys defense.

- I liked Isiah Likely coming into the year, and he had a great debut for the Giants. Dart and Likely are the two offensive highlights for New York.

- The third is that I thought Matt Nagy called a very good game and that overall, you could tell this is a much better coached team.

- Malchi Fields looks like he can be a solid role player as well.

- I did not quite see the Cam Skattebo of last season tonight, but him seeing 17 carries in Week 1 is encouraging and he was still physical.

- I would call this an average game for New York’s offensive line.

- This game is a fine example of why I’ve never quite been a Dak Prescott guy. He is a Hall of Good quarterback, and Dallas is more or less who I thought they were.

- I said to people in my personal life that the loser of this contest is going nowhere.

I’ve watched every NFL game for roughly a decade for the purposes of sports speculation. I spend NFL Sundays in a multi-TV room, so I provide things I’ve noticed during the day in this week post. Some games I see more of than others, and I provide more during those.

I run a reality-based program.

If you want this type of content weekly, my requirement is engagement, comments and shares. If the post gets enough engagement, I’ll keep doing this every week.

I also do not edit this post at all, so that I can get it out as Sunday Night Football ends.

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@CircaSports Over $10,000,000 lost

[Bill Connelly @ESPN_BillC]

* Ohio State's urgency problem
* Oregon's O-line kinda stinks?
* OU hasn't solved its '25 problems
* The B1G underachiever
* Austin and Kamario: hell yeah
* NDSU to the CFP already?
* SP+ movers! Tarps off in Athens! Worst squib kick ever!

WEEK 2 RECAP: https://t.co/7HIsICOcbS

[Shawn Syed @SyedSchemes]

The Atlanta Falcons/Pittsburgh Steelers game combined for the 1,069th ranked Total EPA out of 1,097 games currently in the @SumerSports data set

A combined 3rd percentile overall offensive performance on the day

[Chicago Bears @ChicagoBears]

What you've all been waiting for ‼️

[Ryan Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL]

NFL Week 1 Preview

These are the things I’m looking at on this week’s slate:

- Bengals vs. Bucs looks like a game with a median outcome around 27-24. I don’t have very much confidence in Zac Taylor, but I’m sure he knows you should try to beat Todd Bowles’ defenses through the air.

- When these teams squared off in 2022, Joe Burrow threw for four scores, while Ja’Marr Chase went for 7-60-1 on a game leading 13 targets. In 2020 when Tyreek Hill went for 13-269-3 on 15 targets against Tampa in the regular season, Bowles took a different approach in the Super Bowl, by playing more two high and sending less heat (which they also didn’t need because KC was down both starting OTs). Hill went for 7-73 in that second bout. Hill is a unique player, but the point I’m trying to make here is if Bowles is going to send less heat and play more two high in a game, giving Chase volume underneath like he did to Hill in the Super Bowl, would make sense.

- If this game ends up going under, good chance this type of dynamic is a factor.

- I have never been a Bucky Irving guy, but I like Bucky Irving in this spot. I also like Emeka Egbuka and to a lesser extent Chris Godwin.

- If the Chicago Bears play reasonably well, they should be able to beat the Carolina Panthers with some distance. The question for me is what kind of macro gameplan does Ben Johnson have against a Panthers defense whose strength is linebacker and perimeter corner, paired with a below average pass rush? Everything is on the table against this opponent, so how aggressive Johnson comes out is of great interest to me, because Chicago could win big in both phases against the Panthers.

- Carolina isn’t built to be a shootout team, so I’d think that Dave Canales will lean into the old school completions plus carries brand of offense for as long as he can, similar to the one they took against Dallas last year. Get Bryce Young some layups early with a run heavy approach, unless they are forced out of it.

- The Falcons may have attempted to play real offense if Tua Tagovailoa was active, which probably would have been a disaster against the Steelers’ defense.

- With Cooper Rush at the controls my expectation is a muddier, more Bijan Robinson-centric game plan with some early quick hitters in an effort to mitigate Pittsburgh’s front. I’d expect a play action shot play mixed in early as well.

- Aaron Rodgers is no longer at the peak of his powers, and he had a few bad games in 2025. But he also had plenty of solid outings, with a few remarkable ones for a quarterback that’s breached 40 years old. If Rodgers plays well here, it’s tough to see Pittsburgh losing this one.

- The Eagles have a vastly superior roster to Washington, with advantages in both trenches.

- This looks like a potential smash spot for Saquon Barkley.

- Apart from Jayden Daniels putting the Commanders on his back and carrying them to victory against a superior roster, it’s difficult to see a path for Washington to win this contest.

- Hosting the Saints is a perfect Opening Day opponent for the Lions offense, as Jared Goff could realistically throw for 300 yards and 4 TDs, or Jahmyr Gibbs could approach 200 total yards against this defense.

- Any of the Lions core skill players could pop off here, but I like Sam Laporta’s matchup more than I usually do.

- I was very impressed with Kellen Moore last year, but there are now 10 games of film on Tyler Shough that opponents have had an offseason to review. If I’m Detroit playing Shough, I make him beat me with perimeter throws, similar to how Bill Belichick gave Tom Brady nothing on in breakers in their first matchup as foes (no, I am not comparing Shough to Brady in any capacity).

- It would not surprise me if the Colts beat Baltimore. Lamar Jackson in a new offense, against an opponent specific DC in Lou Anarumo that’s very familiar with Jackson.

- Shane Steichen’s offense also hung 38 points against Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense in the first half of last year, in one of the better games Daniel Jones has played in his career.

- My favorite aspect of the Jaguars’ non-quarterback roster is their front four, and that group could derail this game against Cleveland’s bottom tier offensive line.

- I treat Florida home games in September as an edge.

- Jacksonville also has coaching continuity and Trevor Lawrence, who ascended to at least fringe top 10 status at the position last season. That’s four real advantages for the Jaguars.

- I like Todd Monken, which is why I feel bad for him that he had to take this job, it reminds me a bit of when Vic Fangio took the Broncos job. Because this Browns team, while it has some good building blocks for the future, is a mess as it stands today. If Cleveland makes this interesting, their still pretty good defense drives that outcome in a rare road spike game for this group, with the expectation that Todd Monken builds at least one scoring drive around explosive rookie KC Concepcion.

- I don’t have any doubt that the Chargers will have a high-performing offense this season with Mike McDaniel calling plays for Justin Herbert. I could however see a monumental fall off for this defense with Jessie Minter in Baltimore.

- This looks like a potential smash spot for Omarion Hampton, though in reality this is a very good matchup for every core component of the Chargers’ offense.

- If the Jacoby Brissett we saw last year is the one we’ll get on Sunday, I don’t think Arizona wins this game, but I could see them keeping up and hanging around.

- Michael Wilson really surprised me last year, good looking physical/ contested catch player. I have no pushback on Arizona extending Wilson for real money. Given that, it’s time for Marvin Harison Jr. to become even 90% of who he was supposed to.

- The Texans pass rush beat the Buffalo Bills last year behind an 8-sack effort. Joe Brady was given a tremendous opportunity this offseason in Buffalo, it would be nice to see him create some margin against a high-end defense.

- Davis Mills was Houston’s quarterback for this contest last season, which again was carried by the Texans defense. If rookie year CJ Stroud is still in there, Houston is a legit Super Bowl contender, bordering on the team no one in the AFC wants to play. If the Stroud of the last two seasons is the actual reality, which I think it is, this matchup with Buffalo will be a good litmus test, because this is a very average defense these days.

- Titans vs. Jets has a 38.5 game total, but this game has some shootout potential as both teams have pretty good wide receiver rooms against back-of-the-pack secondaries. Additionally, Cam Ward and Geno Smith both have some ceiling to their games. No one can trust either of these teams, at this stage, but if this game approached 60 total points, it would not shock me.

- If De’Von Achane is going to have a day this season, this game in Vegas is one of his best shots.

- A few people I hold in high-regard like Malik Willis here. I’m expecting this game to be close to unwatchable. Hope I’m wrong.

- I was pretty interested in seeing how Klint Kubiak would put defenders in horrendous positions with Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. While that’s off the table here, Michael Mayer is one of the best TE2’s in the league and a player that would start on several teams.

- If Maxx Crosby has a monster game, Vegas should start shopping him again, because as I’ve said for nearly two years now, he’s the one piece this organization has that can help them build the interesting future they are now on track to enjoy.

- Vikings vs. Packers might be the most interesting game on the slate. On the Packers side, this looks like a game Jordan Love needs to carry. While I think we’ve already seen the best days of Love’s Packers from a team success slant, I do think he’s positioned to have his most productive season. But in Minnesota, against Brian Flores, behind a questionable offensive line is a tough Opening Day draw.

- Flores is probably the worst opponent in the league for this, but given that Green Bay has lost their skill position depth this offseason, I really want to see what the target distribution looks like in this offense.

- I can’t wait to see what Kyler Murray looks like with Kevin O’Connell. Peak Murray would be a perennial MVP contender in this environment, especially if he started his career with a value-add play caller like O’Connell.

- Giants vs. Cowboys shouldn’t be the first Sunday night game of the year, and I’m pretty surprised the total is 48.5.

- If the Giants still had Dexter Lawrence, Dallas being down Tyler Smith would be a real problem. Since Lawrence is in Cincinnati, New York doesn’t have the tools to exploit that loss unless it’s with a third and long stunt.

- If New York is going to be a competitive team their edge rush needs to get them off the field on third down, and this secondary needs to take one, if not two leaps forward. Dallas is a very good test on both fronts.

- Jaxson Dart can play when he doesn’t face a stacked pass rush, so this is a good spot for him to have a solid game.

- Chiefs vs. Broncos is an excellent Monday Night Football game. Kansas City is down their starting LT, which is a problem against a team like Denver. Strong chance Andy Reid uses the run and quick passing game to mitigate that disparity early in this matchup.

- I would love for some shades of Reid’s old screen game to show up in this matchup, especially if he doesn’t call the first one for a while.

- The Broncos offense against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is a really good coaching duel. Denver’s offense has more talent than Kansas City’s defense, but Spagnuolo has gotten the most out of this group for years.

I’ve watched every NFL game for roughly a decade now, which I do for sports speculation purposes.

I run a reality-based program here.

If you want me to keep doing this every week, comment or share this. As long as engagement justifies the time, I’ll keep putting stuff like this out consistently.

[Stats AJ @statsaj23]

@FreddyLA7 You need to go to Freddy’s in Cicero. You’ll need cash