M

kinda a political scientist // OSINT commentary on the occasion
(not affiliated with any organization or government)

[M @stavkaosint]

This being said, I do believe the tensions between NATO and Russia have probably reached it’s highest point since the Cold War

[M @stavkaosint]

My personal analysis

NATO at this time is unable to take on Russia. Likewise Russia is also not in a position to start or really risk a war with NATO.

For these reasons I believe it is much more likely Russia will attempt to open another front in Ukraine to end the war sooner

[M @stavkaosint]

@Zagonel85 That causal mention about the potential use of tactical Nukes was so obviously a plant

[M @stavkaosint]

At minimum Russia needs at least a year of no (or minimal) conflict(s) to restore and update their military before a direct conflict with NATO

[M @stavkaosint]

My personal analysis

NATO at this time is unable to take on Russia. Likewise Russia is also not in a position to start or really risk a war with NATO.

For these reasons I believe it is much more likely Russia will attempt to open another front in Ukraine to end the war sooner

[M @stavkaosint]

I believe NATO is in a severely weakened position now through 2029. I also believe that Russia wants to attack NATO before 2029 (I’m thinking around November 2028 - January 2029) but I highly doubt they will before then end the war in Ukraine

[M @stavkaosint]

@MenchOsint Probably that one Estonian village. Test to see if NATO would actually start a war over a village.

[M @stavkaosint]

@OSINTWarfare My only pushback for that would be Lukashenko has said he would only enter the war on a defensive posture. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re trying to bait Ukraine into striking Belarus first or they’re gonna false flag.

[M @stavkaosint]

Still running with my theory that they’re trying to get negotiations for a nuclear arms deal

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

U.S. President Donald J. Trump, during an interview with @glennbeck, spoke on CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow, calling it “somewhat routine,” and saying that he hopes to see something come from the meeting. However, President Trump declined to elaborate further on the exact nature of the meeting, but did mention that much of the speculation surrounding the meeting is not true.

[M @stavkaosint]

Although the far majority of commentary nowdays is engagement bait 🙄

[M @stavkaosint]

OSINT commentary has gotten way too comfortable turning “idk what’s happening” into “WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF A MAJOR WAR”

The Moscow visit is significant and worth watching however It does not mean an impending Russian attack

We need analysis, not geopolitical horoscope readings

[M @stavkaosint]

Rip economic d-day

Over before it even started

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Russian officials have briefed Iran that the CIA Director Ratcliffe's Moscow visit delivered a message with the US asking Moscow to press Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning that Russian entities would otherwise face designations under Operation Economic Outcast. Russia declined, and told Iran the threatened measures were of limited consequence, according to two senior Iranian sources with knowledge of the briefing.

The message also warned that Russian banks, traders and shipping entities tied to Iranian oil, gold and aviation will be sanctioned under the operation unless Moscow moves to close those channels.

[M @stavkaosint]

it was the Iran issue…so is no one wanting with getting some sort of arms deal thing going cause time is running out

[M @stavkaosint]

Personally, I’m betting that it’s a nuclear issue for the CIA visit (partly based off of some intel I received like a month ago) I think the US is going to rush some sort of arms deal negotiations

[M @stavkaosint]

@FinalWrangler Do you honestly think NATO would risk nuclear war for a village?

[M @stavkaosint]

I’ll take things that definitely didn’t happen for $1,000

[US Homeland Security News @defense_civil25]

🚨🚨🚨Alert: Initial unconfirmed reports are that Putin was furious with the CIA Director’s threats telling Russia to reduce tensions in Ukraine. Putin order him to leave Russia immediately and ordered the US embassy closed permanently….. things are moving fast….🔥🔥🔥

[M @stavkaosint]

I’ll be concerned if the Russian embassy in the United States get evacuated until then it’s just noise

[M @stavkaosint]

@squatsons I think the two most likely possibilities was a discussion about Iran or something about a new nuclear arms deal

[M @stavkaosint]

Personally, I’m betting that it’s a nuclear issue for the CIA visit (partly based off of some intel I received like a month ago) I think the US is going to rush some sort of arms deal negotiations

[M @stavkaosint]

Really? I couldn’t tell

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Ousted Ukrainian defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov says Ukraine is "slowly losing" the war against Russia, says Ukraine has a "window of several months" to make key decisions to turn the tide of the war - Reuters

[M @stavkaosint]

With number 3 the deal did expire in February of this year but if Russia actually started deploying more nuclear warheads or if they started making more nuclear warheads to increase their arsenal That would be a major issue

[M @stavkaosint]

Based off of what I’ve seen, I think there’s three likely possibilities here

1. The US has credible information that Russia planning to attack NATO
2. An ultimatum surrounding the issue of Iran
3. New Start

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: 🇺🇸🇷🇺 The U.S. military C-17 that landed in Moscow earlier today has now been linked to a high-level U.S. visit.

According to CBS News, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow today for meetings with Russian officials, according to sources cited by the network