this is how to prevent fertility rates from falling in the west!
reviewing Johann Kurtz X 🧵on how status affects birth rates: https://t.co/fWlwYaDBac
catch more on YT: https://t.co/If5D6UjiRh
S. Korea spent $200b trying to increase its birthrate. Hungary spends 5% of GDP.
Both are failing.
Yet the small country of Georgia spiked its birthrate massively without spending a dollar. How?
They understood that fertility isn't about money. It's about status.
I worked 20 years for a child sex trafficking rescue group. I want you to know this:
90% of Lost Children Are Found Within 30 Minutes.
That statistic should both comfort you and wake you up.
Most lost children are found quickly. But the ones who aren’t? They usually made one mistake.
And here’s the uncomfortable truth:
It’s often the exact thing most parents teach them.
We tell our kids:
“If you get lost, come find me.”
It sounds logical. It sounds empowering.
It’s WRONG!
The Mistake Most Lost Children Make:
When children realize they’re separated, they do three things almost automatically:
They panic.
They wander.
They try to find you.
Every step makes them harder to locate.
From a search standpoint, movement creates chaos.
Parents retrace their steps.
Security scans zones.
Staff lock down areas.
Search works best when movement stops.
When a child keeps walking, they move outside the original search radius. Helpers are looking where they were last seen — not where they’ve wandered.
Stillness increases probability.
Movement expands the problem.
The first lesson is not “go find me.”
It’s this:
Stop. Stay. Yell.
Why Stillness Wins:
Think like a search team.
If a child stays put:
Parents can retrace steps.
Security can scan systematically.
Helpers converge to one fixed location.
The search radius remains small.
If a child keeps moving:
The search area expands.
Adults pass each other.
Missed connections multiply.
Minutes stretch into hours.
Stillness keeps the math on your side.
Teach Them Who to Approach:
The second mistake we make as parents?
We say, “Find an adult.”
Not any adult. Not the nearest stranger. Children need a filter.
Teach them to look for, if at all possible:
A mother with children.
Caregivers who already have kids with them are statistically among the safest people to approach in public settings. They are visible, stationary, and more likely to engage quickly.
It’s a clear, concrete instruction.
Children don’t process vague categories like “safe adult.”
They process visuals.
“Find a mom with kids” is visual.
A Phone Only Helps If the Number Is Known:
We often assume phones solve everything.
They don’t — unless your child can use one. Even young children can memorize a 10-digit phone number with repetition.
But you must train it.
Practice it like a song.
Sing it in the car.
Chant it at bedtime.
Turn it into rhythm.
Repetition becomes recall.
In an emergency, recall matters more than theory.
The Code Word Rule:
One more layer of protection.
Choose a private family code word.
Something only your household knows.
If someone approaches and says:
“Your mom sent me.”
Your child asks:
“What’s the code word?”
No word.
No go.
This simple rule eliminates manipulation attempts instantly.
It gives your child agency without requiring them to evaluate character.
Real Safety Is Training — Not Luck!
We don’t get safer by hoping.
We get safer by practicing.
Teach:
• Phone number
• Code word
• Stop, stay, yell
• Find a mom with kids
Multiple skills.
Simple instructions.
Clear visuals.
Five minutes of training can replace hours of panic. This isn’t about fear. It’s about preparation.
Because when a child gets separated, the clock starts.
And what they do in the first minute determines what the next thirty look like.
That’s real protection.
I concluded my Henry Family lecture at the University of Miami last Thursday by saying:
“Two things are important right now in life: deep learning and fertility. Everything else is noise.”
We are only starting to glimpse what these two forces will do to global life over the next fifty years. And they interact: deep learning will reshape demographics, and demographic collapse will reshape automation.
Nearly all my posts on X (except some parochial commentary on Spanish economic policy) revolve around these two facts. So does most of my current research. Even work that does not seem directly connected turns out to be, once you look carefully.
My papers on geoeconomics and international macro are about figuring out some of the consequences of deep learning and fertility. For example, my work on China focuses on its abysmal demographic future and how the U.S. is positioning itself (rightly or wrongly) to address it.
And my work on political polarization and the welfare state is about the consequences of decades of low fertility in Western Europe. When people talk about political change in Western Europe, they are talking about low fertility, whether they know it or not. It is not clear that modern representative democracy can survive sustained fertility rates of 1.3. I do not say that with glee.
The reason I decided to spend my life on academic work in economics is that I realized, when I was much younger, that daily events are irrelevant. The things that concern the media and 99 percent of commentary on X are largely irrelevant. One political party does better or worse in the next electoral cycle because of internal fights or a good campaign. At a fundamental level, none of it matters: the political outcome 25 years from now will not depend on those accidents. As Alexander Gerschenkron said, Clio is not a tidy housewife. The rise of any political movement is always full of advances and retreats. Social change waxes and wanes.
But at the end of the day, as my favorite historian Fernand Braudel put it:
“The events of history are merely surface disturbances, crests of foam that the tides of history carry on their strong backs.”
or in the much better original:
“Les événements de l’histoire ne sont que des agitations de surface, des crêtes d’écume que les marées de l’histoire portent sur leur dos puissant.”
The tides of history today are deep learning and fertility.
Don't be an NPC. Think for yourself. 🚫🤖
It’s easy to say "there's too many people, we're draining all the resources" and stop there. It’s a convenient excuse to not have kids.
But if you actually examine the facts, the overpopulation narrative falls apart. The truth is much better. Don't let a lie trick you into giving up on the future.
READ my full article here: https://t.co/OMpfMJqguQ
Watch the full video on YouTube: https://t.co/mGuldxm5EC
Most developed countries are shrinking. Israel is the rare exception, their society is still having enough kids to replace its population.
In this video I read an article by More Births, on why Israel’s birth rates stay high (even with expensive housing, long education, careers, and all the usual excuses birthrates drop) Source Article: https://t.co/uCYoWayhmf
My biggest takeaway: culture might be the real policy we need.
Do you think culture is basically all it takes… or do we need hard policy too?
Also on Youtube: https://t.co/UscDXz0Khr
MONDAY LETS GOO! 💪🏼
Monday December 8 2025
1.Sleep score - poor sleep consistency, need to work on going to sleep & waking up at the same time
2.Last nights sleep - 21:59 sleep / 5:48 wake
3.Water + Apple cider vinegar
4.Gym pic or it didn’t happen
https://t.co/youDzBDwGs coffee
https://t.co/oz1QsNnRSi banana, blueberries & mango
7.Leftover lunch: egg fried rice with tofu, edamame, red peppers & 🥒
8.Cheese, kiwi & blueberry snack with Frau tea & sparking water
9.Last meal 18:30 - kale salad with tofu & homemade lactose free yogurt dressing
10.Cardio + strength + steps stats
Also did a 20 min 85 ℃ sauna session. 10 min steam 🧖♀️ drinking filtered water constantly 💦 Bedtime Goal: 21:30 🕤
Accountability starts today
Sunday 7 December 2025
1. Water + Apple cider vinegar
2. Matcha #1 with lactose free milk
3. Matcha #2 with lactose free milk
4. Porridge w 🍌 🫐 🥝 🍊 🥜+🧈 lactose free yogurt, chia seeds, ground flax seeds, cacao nibs
5. Ladies Tea, water with 🍋, and sparkling water with 🍓 🍋
6. Egg fried rice, tofu, shrimp, peppers and edamame
7. Wedding wine tasting, sharing 1 glass with my fiancé 🫢
Last meal at 18:30 (1h delayed), aiming to sleep by 21:30. Didn’t work out today, and only got 8,8k steps 🙅🏻♀️
Women don’t reject men or motherhood because they hate them — they often do it because:
- They've been deeply let down by men
- They’ve been taught to fear dependence or being trapped
- They’ve learned to get validation from freedom and control, not intimacy and surrender
- Society tells them the only safe way to be empowered is to be alone
- And they’ve internalized the belief that partnership = loss of self
That creates a huge identity fracture for women who still long for love, family, and legacy.
if your vocabulary doesn’t include zone 2 training, grip strength, protein intake, sleep hygiene, and glucose levels… do you even care about your future self? 👀
Creating life is the most powerful thing you can do as a human. Raising a child is creating your legacy, not for clout, but because you actually give a damn about the world and you want to contribute something meaningful to it.
Watch more on my newest video on YouTube: https://t.co/WFCpJUqqzU