@ThierryBorgeat Yields are higher coming off a strong jobs report and energy inflation. Gold does not pay interest. Bonds pay interest. Rates go up. Capital shifts. Simple concept.
@TedPillows Cash. Good news is now bad news. 10 year yields popped today after a strong jobs report. Interest rate hikes are starting to price in. Today’s tech pull back is probably healthy. But hey, it’s going to be ok Ted.
"Professor, don't you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10y UST yield breaks 4.4% on the upside?"
"Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all."
Over the last 98 years the S&P 500 has closed the year
Up by more than 40% - 5 times
Up by between 30%-40% - 13 times
Up by between 20%-30% - 18 times
Up by between 10%-20% - 22 times
Up by between 0%-10% - 14 times
Down by between 10%-0% - 14 times
Down by between 20%-10% - 6 times
Down by between 30%-20% - 3 times
Down by between 40%-30% - 2 times
Down by more than 40% - 1 time
@TaviCosta The spike was a result of the financial crisis and deep recessionary conditions. Are equity valuations high? Yes. Have earnings proven to support those valuations? Yes. Are economic conditions weakening? Yes.
Good reminder why we diversify.
@TaviCosta Of the instances, what % of the mean reversion was attributed to the decline in gold as opposed to the appreciation in silver? Would love to see this data point…
Some argue that gold’s recent outperformance relative to the S&P 500 was a temporary anomaly.
I disagree.
This dynamic follows very long-term cycles, and I believe we’re likely only in the early stages of this one.
A key reminder:
Unlike past cycles, however, we now face a trifecta of macro imbalances:
▪���The Debt Problem of the 1940s
▪️Inflation Issues of the 1970s
▪️Asset Valuation Imbalance of the Late 1920s and 1990s
@michaeljburry I would love to see you come out with an affordable product that pairs your
market knowledge with a long oriented strategy, think pacer ETFs paired with structured notes, that manages risk with downside risk protection when you feel it’s justified.