Stefan Michaelsen

Rechtsanwalt und Strategieberater in München, ex-McKinsey, ex-Microsoft

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Ab dem 1. Februar 2025 suchen wir (Mann, Frau, Kind) aufgrund einer Eigenbedarfskündigung nach fast 20 Jahren eine neue Wohnung in München.

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

@Fionnindy Bitte gerne kurzer Bericht zu diesem Projekt einer weiteren Qualifikationsschrift. Ich schreibe das als Käufer und Leser (mehrere Anläufe) der beiden Bände von "Vom Gebäude zum Gerüst".

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

"Currently, he [Daniel-Pascal Zorn] is lecturer at the University of Wuppertal, where he is working on his habilitation about a Phenomenology of Liberalism."

Ich dachte immer, @Fionnindy hätte einer klassischen Wissenschaftskarriere abgeschworen.

https://t.co/4N9qRXPGc7

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

@Karl_Lauterbach We're f...ed.

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

@Wurschtel7 @Automation165 @benterikscholz @erik_fl @lu_eder @_niklasb @RosefeldtTobias @nymoen_ole @PhilippvBecker @diets_tweets @AnakinSkyw53861 @HasnainKazim Was hätte Daniel-Pascal Zorn als Autor alles in der Zeit vor dem Internet schaffen können, also ohne die Stunden der Twitter-Lektüre und -Produktion. Habermas soll auch reizbar gewesen sein und wollte sich dann argumentativ durchsetzen, aber eben im Seminar oder in einer Zeitung.

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

@Wurschtel7 @Automation165 @benterikscholz @erik_fl @lu_eder @_niklasb @RosefeldtTobias @nymoen_ole @PhilippvBecker @diets_tweets @AnakinSkyw53861 @HasnainKazim An Daniel-Pascal Zorn habe ich mich vor Jahren auch schon abgearbeitet und mit ihm gestritten und unterlag natürlich. 4 Werke stehen im Regal. Ich habe die Hoffnung noch nicht aufgegeben, "Vom Gebäude zum Gerüst" irgendwann zu verstehen, ich vermute dort eine große Erkenntnis.

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Wenn neu geschlossene Ehe kein Splitting mehr ermöglichen, wird es (bei Gutverdienern) weniger Scheidungen und weniger neue Eheschließungen geben.

#Klingbeil #Ehegattensplitting #Splitting

[Mike Selig @ChairmanSelig]

Prediction markets are one of the most exciting innovations in financial markets. Yet for too long, the @CFTC has failed to provide guidance for these markets being used by millions of Americans. This ends today.

Read what steps the agency is taking here⬇️
https://t.co/0qSwjxWLkI

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

"Wenn Mietshäuser verkauft und in Eigentum umgewandelt werden, entstehen für Mieterinnen und Mieter neue rechtliche Fragen. Welche Regelungen gelten - und welche Rechte bestehen."

Von Andrea Wieland, SWR

https://t.co/kXaBhhsMqX

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Hinweis auf die Rezension (2022) von Franziska Brachthäuser zu der Dissertation „Die Tradition staatlicher Interventionen in den Mietwohnungsmarkt“ von Valesca Maria Molinari (Prof. Dr. Rainer Schröder, HU Berlin)

„Der Markt besiegt meistens das Recht“

https://t.co/cjof3Kp1mC

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Im Sinne von dad movie (oder: war porn) eine gut illustrierte Übersicht über das iranische Waffenarsenal:

Military briefing: Iran’s new retaliation strategy https://t.co/Pl8UxYc8la via @ft

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

"I promise you won’t be anyone’s pet."

Ignore the AI Hysteria by @andykessler https://t.co/NyQi5EysaB via @WSJopinion

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

States Encroach on Prediction Markets by @ChairmanSelig https://t.co/TYa7tQgbBg via @WSJopinion

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

"While Kalshi offers wagers on everything from politics to weather — chief executive Tarek Mansour has said it is “making the world a little bit smarter about the future” — sports bets account for the bulk of its revenues."

https://t.co/Sugt5oFePd

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Gambling. Investing. Gaming. There’s No Difference Anymore. https://t.co/aIcUeZJKHD

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

The Dangerous Power of Prediction Markets https://t.co/C1ahclYulS

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

The Finance Industry Is a Grift. Let’s Start Treating It That Way. https://t.co/ga6HaHw5AR

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Kalshi chief Tarek Mansour: ‘We’re pricing the future’

Lunch with the FT

https://t.co/3n2OztEW3T via @ft

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

How I would do creator coins

We've seen about 10 years of people trying to do content incentivization in crypto, from early-stage platforms like Bihu and Steemit, to BitClout in 2021, to Zora, to tipping features inside of decentralized social, and more. So far, I think we have not been very successful, and I think this is because the problem is fundamentally hard.

First, my view of what the problem is. A major difference between doing "creator incentives" in the 00s vs doing them today, is that in the 00s, a primary problem was having not enough content at all. In the 20s, there's plenty of content, AI can generate an entire metaverse full of it for like $10. The problem is quality. And so your goal is not *incentivizing content*, it's *surfacing good content*.

Personally, I think that the most successful example of creator incentives we've seen is Substack. To see why, take a look at the top 10:

https://t.co/duaCaGNYXp
https://t.co/y1F9Td0Y52
https://t.co/xEMt8pIK74

Now, you may disagree with many of these authors. But I have no doubt that:

1. They are on the whole high quality, and contribute positively to the discussion
2. They are mostly people who would not have been elevated without Substack's presence

So Substack is genuinely surfacing high quality and pluralism.

Now, we can compare to creator coin projects. I don't want to pick on a single one, because I think there's a failure mode of the entire category.

For example:

Top Zora creator coins: https://t.co/238cqf2bX1

BitClout: https://t.co/0jVmotkpFw

Basically, the top 10 are people who already have very high social status, and who are often impressive but primarily for reasons other than the content they create.

At the core, Substack is a simple subscription service: you pay $N per month, and you get to see the person's articles. But a big part of Substack's success is that they did not just set the mechanism and forget. Their launch process was very hands-on, deliberately seeding the platform with high-quality creators, based on a very particular vision of what kind of high-quality intellectual environment they wanted to foster, including giving selected people revenue guarantees.

So now, let's get to one idea that I think could work (of course, coming up with new ideas is inherently a more speculative project than criticizing existing ones, and more prone to error).

Create a DAO, that is *not* token-based. Instead, the inspiration should be Protocol Guild: there are N members, and they can (anonymously) vote new members in and out. If N gets above ~200, consider auto-splitting it.

Importantly, do _not_ try to make the DAO universal or even industry-wide. Instead, embrace the opinionatedness. Be okay with having a dominant type of content (long-form writing, music, short-form video, long-form video, fiction, educational...), and be okay with having a dominant style (eg. country or region of origin, political viewpoint, if within crypto which projects you're most friendly to...). Hand-pick the initial membership set, in order to maximize its alignment with the desired style.

The goal is to have a group that is larger than one creator and can accumulate a public brand and collectively bargain to seek revenue opportunities, but at the same time small enough that internal governance is tractable.

Now, here is where the tokens come in. In general, one of my hypotheses this decade is that a large portion of effective governance mechanisms will all have the form factor of "large number of people and bots participating in a prediction market, with the output oracle being a diverse set of people optimized for mission alignment and capture resistance". In this case, what we do is: anyone can become a creator and create a creator coin, and then, if they get admitted to a creator DAO, a portion of their proceeds from the DAO are used to burn their creator coins.

This way, the token speculators are NOT participating in a recursive-speculation attention game backed only by itself. Instead, they are specifically being predictors of what new creators the high-value creator DAOs will be willing to accept. At the same time, they also provide a valuable service to the creator DAOs: they are helping surface promising creators for the DAOs to choose from.

So the ultimate decider of who rises and falls is not speculators, but high-value content creators (we make the assumption that good creators are also good judges of quality, which seems often true). Individual speculators can stay in the game and thrive to the extent that they do a good job of predicting the creator DAOs' actions.

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Dazu ein Kommentar von Vitalik Buterin, dem Erfinder oder Mit-Entwickler (-Gründer) von Ethereum (ETH, "world computer")

https://t.co/jqi9RLfXvh

[Stefan Michaelsen @stefanmichaelse]

Re: Überleben der Menschheit

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean

"We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution."

https://t.co/RW8gM3PqUt