Stefan Feuchtinger

The true man is revealed in difficult times

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@CarOnPolymarket @PMTraderAdam It's actually priced much too cheaply. It could simple start raining and it will count as well if he stops the climb

[Morgan Downey @morgan_downey]

Why would Saudi Arabia this morning allegedly refuse to allow US military aircraft to overfly their country on the way to Iran?

On paper, Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) are mortal enemies.

The reality is that in the 2026 oil market, the Saudis need the Ayatollah to stay.

Here are $44 billion reasons why.

If Iran sanctions are lifted, 160 million barrels of Iranian oil stored in floating tankers flood the market immediately. An additional 1-2 million barrels per day of Iranian production follows.

That pushes oil from $60 to $40.

Under $94, the Saudi welfare state is already upside down. At $40, it is insolvent.

Normally, Saudi would just cut production to save the price if an increase in Iranian oil came back to the market. They can't. Why? Because, setting Iran aside, a wall of supply is hitting the market in 2026.

If Saudi cuts, they just hand market share to the class of 2026. New, cheap oil that break even at $40.

The Class of 2026 (The Wall of Supply) in barrels per day and their breakeven prices:

Brazil: +400k ($35)
Guyana: +200k ($35-45)
Canada: +200k ($45)
US/Others: +200k bpd ($40)

Total new 2026 supply: 1 Million bpd. This new supply soaks up all 2026 oil demand growth and does is much cheaper than Saudi can.

So, how does Riyadh survive 2026 with oil at $60 and a $44 billion deficit?

They are doing three things:

Max out credit cards They issued $12B in bonds in Jan 2026 alone.

Pawn the jewelry: Selling more shares of Aramco to pay the bills.

Cancel the renovation: Neom is shrinking. "The Line" was supposed to be 170km. It is now just 2.4km.

So Saudi Arabia doesn't want an Iran war. But they also don't want an Iran peace. They need Iran to stay sanctioned, isolated, and offline.

It has nothing to do with Shia vs. Sunni. It has everything to do with solvency vs. bankruptcy.

The enemy of my sanctioned enemy is... my enemy.

[these are personal ideas and opinions, none of this is financial advice]

[Morgan Downey @morgan_downey]

Why aren't oil prices rallying on the chaos in Iran?

Iran is a major producer. It sits on the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil (WTI) today is $59.

Normally, regime change implies supply risk which implies $100 oil.

Not this time. The market isn't scared of a shortage. It is terrified of an inventory dump.

Here is why Iran is sitting on a 160-million-barrel oil market grenade:

1. Iran runs on natural gas. Iranian power plants, their heating, their industry. It all relies on the massive South Pars field. While some natural gas production is "dry" (the nat gas comes out of the ground without any oil), South Pars is a wet gas reservoir. You cannot produce the natural gas at South Pars without also lifting a liquid byproduct called condensate.

2. Condensate: Condensate is ultra-light crude oil (API 53° in this case). Think of it as raw gasoline.

The good: It is valuable if sold fresh.

The bad: It is volatile. If you store it in a steel tank in the tropics for 12 months, it doesn't just evaporate. It oxidizes.

The ugly: It becomes gummy. Refineries reject it because it fouls their heat exchangers.

3. The bind: Iran must pump the natural gas to keep the lights on in Tehran. That means they must figure out what to do with all the condensate produced from the same hole.

Thanks to recently stricter enforcement of sanctions, as well as wartime Russia selling their sanctioned oil to China, Iran can't sell its condensate.

So, what do you do?

You put it on a boat.

4. The floating market time bomb: Iran currently has 160 million barrels floating offshore.(50 million anchored and 110 million creeping along at 2 knots to avoid authorities, mostly offshore Malaysia and the South China Sea).

The scale: Iran currently accounts for over 75% of the world's floating storage, up from just 20% a year ago. 40% of Iranian floating oil is condensate. For context: Iran is now floating the equivalent of 40% of the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) on boats.

Maybe Iran had some masterplan or clever endgame for this oil?

No.

These floating oil tankers aren't strategic assets. They are expensive overflow containers. Each costing $50,000+ per day in cash, they are holding a degrading product that is turning into sludge.

The Iranian government isn't a speculator holding out for a better oil price. They are storing a crude oil byproduct, so they don't have to turn off the electricity in Tehran.

The oil market knows this.

If the regime falls and/or sanctions are lifted, this oil doesn't magically disappear.

It gets dumped into global spot markets.

And that, my friends, is why oil isn't rallying on Iran.

[David Keyes @DavidMKeyes]

Rubio somber that he'll lead his B-2 squadron to Iran tomorrow

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

The true man is revealed in difficult times 🤔

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

Wild if true

[Candace Owens @RealCandaceO]

🚨 URGENT
Two days ago I was contacted by a high-ranking employee of the French Government. After determining this person’s position and proximity to the French couple, I have deemed the information they gave me to be credible enough to share publicly in the event that something happens.
In short, this person claims that the Macrons have executed upon and paid for my assassination. Yes, you read that correctly. More specifically, that the green light was given to a small team in National Gendamarie Intervention Group. I am told there is one Israeli that is on this assasination squad and the plans were formalized.
Again, this person provided concrete proof that they are well placed within the French government apparatus.
Further to this point, this person claims that Charlie Kirk’s assassin trained with the French legion 13th brigade with multi-state involvement.
Journalist Xavier Poussard’s life is also at risk. This is deadly serious. The head of state of France apparently wants us both dead and has authorized professional units to carry this out.
I ask that every person RETWEET and share this.
I do not know who in the American government can be trusted, since this source claims our leaders are aware. But I have more specific information which is definitively verifiable, should they care to reach out to me.
To the brave official in France who did this because they were so moved by the evil of Charlie’s public execution to risk their own life— May God bless you. Truly.

Let all be revealed.

[Ada Lluch @AdaLluch]

Imagine the amount of propaganda it took to convince women that waking up like this is oppressive but waking up hangover and alone, or even worse, with a stranger, isn’t.

[Lee (Greater) @shortmagsmle]

Actually, obligatory:

Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit.

The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.”

The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit.

They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit.

The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.”

The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit.

Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing."

"That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@setu_ai_expert G

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@mike_revenue True

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

Would be my strategy, also :D

[941 @level941]

What have I been telling you about China.

The Oct 10–11 wipeout was “manufactured,” withdrawals were throttled, and fees plus internal P&L captured the spread.

Wintermute’s own line is that they stopped trading mid-crash because internal risk limits tripped, not to profit from it. That matters because “stood down” vs “leaned on the book” implies opposite motives.

force liquidations, slow withdrawals, book internal P&L, and harvest 8–12 bps on extreme turnover days. That’s exactly the type of play Chinese exchange + MM would do. I just need need order-book and wallet evidence to prove it.

If Washington can make domestic hash-rate and mined BTC the new collateral for Treasuries, the dollar becomes energy backed again this time by compution rather than crude.

That threatens the entire BRICS commodity clearing model China has been building with gold and the digital yuan.

China can’t easily stop American miners or ETF flows directly, but it can attack the price discovery layer.

Binance, Bybit, and Hyperliquid are offshore venues with deep liquidity but no U.S. regulatory leash. Each blaming each other like the Spider-Man meme.

Most large market makers routing through them. Wintermute. Jump, etc. operate globally.

If you control latency, liquidation engines, or synthetic funding rates, you can spike or crush BTC’s price at will.

The easiest way to discredit BTC is to make its market look chaotic and manipulated.

You see gold crash 5% two days in a row?
Exactly. That’s the counter punch. Bitcoin is a large asset class now. Beijing’s rational response is to suppress Bitcoin’s perceived reliability until the U.S. hash-standard architecture is too costly or politically risky to finish.

If the U.S. succeeds, Bitcoin becomes the backbone of a Hash-Dollar energy-reserve economy, reviving dollar hegemony.

the market behavior you’re seeing fits perfectly with a financial proxy war:
Hash-Dollar vs. BRICS-Gold.

WW3 isn’t fought with bullets.

You all act as if sovereign nations don’t know that Bitcoin is the greatest innovation the world has ever seen…

-pigeon

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@gemchange_ltd @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @predictionarc Trump already won last year. Check Google rules he cannot win this year

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@holy_moses7 Credible reporting is sufficient though. I mean how can what's happening now not count as the ceasefire ending?

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@amtvmedia When is the question

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@amtvmedia Mega bullish. BUT: peace is definitely not coming to the middle east. Iran 2.0 is clearly part of their deal

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@TedPillows what's the likelihood of a rate cut in October in your opinion/based on markets?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Meanwhile outside the principal's office

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@nottellingyou73 What about KTA. Same conviction and size?

[Stefan Feuchtinger @steffeuchtinger]

@martypartymusic What about KTA? It's faster and more stable, why would it not be included here?