I was really surprised to hear you say that LTHS was at a record, especially with the majority of coins being in loss.
I have been feeling lately like the 4 year cycle believers have been largely correct, and that the pre-halving new high was caused by the introduction of the ETF’s.
I ran your post past Grok, which found your thesis to be very sound, with two caveats:
1) The ETF’s (a new variable), have created a vehicle for easy on/off boarding of BTC.
2) In spite of the LTHS numbers pointing to the exact outcome you expect, Macro issues could mute, delay or negate that outcome.
Interest rates are most likely going to remain high and/or rise in the relative near term which is generally bad for risk assets, and we’re in the riskiest of risk assets.
I hope the LTHS thesis wins the wrestling match with Macro. 🤞
@Finora_EN I’ll save you the trouble it definitely won’t be me! I’m a newb and know it. Been watching this one myself, and to be honest I thought the charts were looking good for this, especially on the daily. Be well…
@BigCheds All fair points and well taken, (expect for your assumption that I have a bias, which I neither communicated nor possess). Your content is solid and educational. Appreciate it. Cheers..
@jameslavish When you posted this James, we were just starting to reverse on LTF at least. Based on you responses to comments on your post, am I correct in assuming that your general bias ATM is that we’ve still not had enough volume on the capitulation to put in a bottom?
@ChartGuys@Mr_Derivatives Of course you did that Dan. Not the least bit surprised. That teacher right now is reflecting on what you shared, and realizing and appreciating the fact that you just validated their unique effort while performing an extremely challenging job. Kudos
There’s no way to reach a successful outcome if Trump is undermining the negotiations with his desperate yapping in the background, or Israel is blatantly violating the terms. We have both.
The side with the least time pressure always wins a negotiation. Iran has forever, Trump has till the midterms.
If it wasn’t so incredibly impactful, it would almost be entertaining to watch at this point.