Stephen Morgan

Former Label VP Mktg Maven. - Founder @Entincity #AtlanticRecords #WarnerMusicGroup Educating Musicians #NFTs #Web3 Supporting #Backto60 #50sWomen #CEDAW #WASPI

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@CNBCPro Once again CNBC manage to miss the mark with an interview. Your recent interview by Carl Q over SpaceX failed to ask the question that's on everyone’s lips. Potential price action on the IPO launch? The likelihood of any launch premium and what that range might be?

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@SquawkCNBC Guys get @JoeSquawk off the show. Today it was embarrassing as he repeatedly shouts over his guests. When a guest suggests that it would make better television if you sat back and watched Joe just shout over @andrewrsorkin you know you're providing sh1t TV

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@CNBC @SquawkCNBC @CNBCPro The hearing resembled nothing more than a bunch of barely literate individuals having difficulty reading from their own scripts arguing with a Henson Enterprises animatronic. Get your priorities right

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@CNBC @SquawkCNBC @CNBCPro Guys todays coverage by CNBC was a complete and utter abdication of anything remotely representing responsibility. Markets crashing and you adbicate all responsibility to cover a House hearing with Scott Besswent

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

I have never in my 46 years on this planet come across a more pathetic and needy individual than this man.

[ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret]

Speeches still matter. A privilege to be there to hear one of the best - and most important - of recent times from @markjcarney yesterday. Others need to follow his lead. New @restispolitics ep recorded before his speech but all themes covered !!! Wherever you get your pods

[🍋 Plant 🌍🇪🇺 @dienieuweplant]

Truth

#trump #TrumpIsUnfitForOffice #TrumpisaNationalDisgrace #TrumpTerrorist

[LA Blue Dot in GA 🌊🐸 @namwella1961]

Bloomberg: Trump is asking countries that want a permanent spot on his new Board of Peace to contribute at least $1 billion. Critics worry Trump is trying to build an alternative to the United Nations.
#TrumpEpsteinCoverUp #TrumpIsUnfitForOffice #TrumpIsANationalDisgrace

[Tall Beer Shark 🦈 @LantzL13]

@CalltoActivism #TrumpIsUnfitForOffice #TrumpisaNationalDisgrace

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

So here we have it...the so called Leader of the Western World is now behaving like a spoilt brat. Going to wreck NATO and plunge the US (and World) Economies into chaos because he couldn't take a knock back? Who in @CNBC is going to grow a pair and ask him why? @JoeSquawk?

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@CNBC Sara Eisens interview with Senator Cramer eas the most toothless display I've seen in years. She had him on the ropes when she mentioned that Powell had written to the Committee and nailed him, he waffled and she must have gone off to find her hair spray and let him go

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@CitizenFreePres Absolute joke..... delusional. Warner had him on the ropes and was the only person I've seen in god knows how long who has had the balls to nail Kernen for the apologist he is

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

And just when we thought he couldnt go any lower 🤬

[J Hunter🍁 @MrJoKeR604]

The entire world staring at the US in disbelief.

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@MrJoKeR604 And just when you thought he couldnt go any lower 🤬

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Right now I am positioned for the market to head to new highs before the holidays and the goal is to catch as much of this inflating AI bubble as possible. As Mae West said, "Too much of a good thing can be wonderful!"

In an interview on Friday, I said “Unfortunately the market is going to keep melting higher,” and I wanted to expand on that statement. I said unfortunately because the higher the AI bubble takes stock valuations, the more painful the decline is going to be ultimately for investors on the other side. Let me explain my current thoughts and why I remain positioned to hopefully benefit from valuations inflating further. It is important to be positioned for the road right in front of you while contemplating what turns might be ahead. Turning too early can put you in a ditch.

Measured by the price to sales ratio of the S&P or market cap to GDP (Warren Buffett’s favorite), the stock market is more expensive today than the peak in 2000. But this does not mean they cannot go up even further in the near-term. There is a reason John Maynard Keynes said the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

So while I believe the market is suffering from “irrational exuberance” given current valuations, I believe it can extend even further fueled by easy money, strong Q3 earnings and AI optimism. As a reminder, Greenspan gave that famous “irrational exuberance” speech in December of 1996 during the internet buildout and the S&P doubled by its peak in March of 2000.

Nasdaq rose 40% in 1998, then accelerated to 86% in 1999 and accelerated even further to a 24% gain in just over two months to start 2000 fueled by the inflating internet bubble. From the launch of Netscape Navigator in late 1994, the first mass market internet browser, it took over five years for the stock market to reach its bubble peak during the buildout of the internet infrastructure. Also these accelerating gains occurred despite the Fed raising rates from 4.75% in June of 1999 to 6.5% at its peak in 2000. This time, the Fed started cutting rates again from a range of 4.25-4.50% in September.

The Fed is planning to spike the punchbowl before the holidays despite inflation being above target for four years. This is despite the Fed’s role of “taking away the punchbowl just as the party is getting started” to paraphrase former Fed chairman Martin. In addition, they will probably end quantitative tightening given recent credit events at the upcoming meeting at the end of October.

Finally, in May of 2026, we are likely to get a new head of the Federal reserve appointed by President Trump who wants rates much lower than current forecasts. These additional rate cuts will also probably happen before the end of 2026. But this is also when my concerns over AI come in.

As for AI optimism, we have not even reached three years since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. $NVDA quarterly revenues are up “just” 7.9x since the end of 2022 and the introduction of ChatGPT. $CSCO, which became the most valuable company in the world during the internet infrastructure buildout, saw quarterly revenues increase 15.5x from the end of 1994 to its peak.

My medium-term concern remains that by late 2026 that AI revenues will not be ramping enough to validate the enormous ramp in spending in AI capex. It is a good approximation to assume that the five biggest hyperscalers ( $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL $META $ORCL ) are about 2/3rds of the global spend on AI capex. Spending of these five is expected to reach $800B over the past three calendar years and over $400B up 60% y/y in this year alone. But the revenues generated by the AI native companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic and Perpexity is only expected to reach ~$20B this year. In an August interview, Sam Altman said how they had resisted the temptation to put a sex bot avatar on ChatGPT even though it could juice their revenues. Last week he said OpenAI would allow erotica on their platform by year-end. I think this speaks to the difficulty OpenAI is having getting customers to pay for their product relative to spending levels.

When consumers have been trained over decades that they can get internet query results for free from Google, it is going to be hard to get them to pay for AI chatbot queries. There are 5 billion users querying Google. $NFLX has over 300M subscribers and is expected to generate $45B in revenues this year and $9B in free cash flow. By comparison OpenAI has over 800M users but is expected to generate just $13B in revenues this year and burn $8.5B in cash. But this is a concern for another day.

Right now my goal is to be positioned to enjoy too much of a good thing.

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@andrewrsorkin @SquawkCNBC Somebody pull up Howard Lutnick and put him right about US Cars in Europe. They can sell them we just don't want to buy the crap. Ford and GM have had us over for decades..we're just not poutting up with any more. I'm in the UK and GM screwed Vauxhall

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

This is awful no matter how much the IDF try to spin this..nothing more than an "extra-judicial execution". We're now into full on "silencing of the Media mode" and we should all be ashamed and also very afraid of what will happen next.

[Cathy Newman @cathynewman]

This is terribly tragic news. Thinking of his family, friends and colleagues tonight in a conflict that has claimed the lives of so many journalists.

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

Absolutely disgusting and a shame on all of the UK

[Feargal Sharkey @Feargal_Sharkey]

Well done everyone involved, take a bow, @DefraGovUK, @Ofwat, @EnvAgency, water industry, farming etc, etc…

And yes, I am being sarcastic.

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @JoeSquawk Trump is coming across like a guy who got told to get lost by a Prom Queen when he was 18 and never got over it.... To you all.... well done for doing that interview and not falling to studio floor beating in hysterics

[Stephen Morgan @stephenmorgan]

@SquawkCNBC Trump comes across like the drunk and rambling guy you meet in a Pub after a few pints on a Saturday night..incoherent and rambling. You just want to tap on the shoulders and say "enjoy your night mate" 😂