Stephen T. Crye

All that is required for ignorance and superstition to triumph is for men of reason and knowledge to be silent.
Polite debate welcomed, rudeness muted.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

Made it to 16,182 feet over Monroe Utah the time I flew with my Mountain High Oxy system! So sweet! #RedRocks2022

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@DJSnM Hey at least on the third try the rocket works pretty good!

Now we just need to work on the full and rapidly reusable carrier aircraft

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

Can you be a little bit more specific? Which model? It defaults to the European Center for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) which at least for Southern New Mexico, is not a super accurate model. It gets a lot of things wrong. The higher resolution US models typically do a better job, although they don't look as far ahead as ECMWF.

Try this: for same day or next day, have a look at HRRR and NAM. In the summer, you can usually count on NAM to be better for thunderstorm and rain localization.

If it's clear, you can usually trust HRRR, although it will tend to read a little bit high and gustier than reality. That also depends on what spots you're looking at, HRRR is better at taking into account topographic features.

If you look at the Windy "about these data" , You can learn more about how the different models work.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@FlybubbleTeam Those are really hot ships! Probably too skinny for my skill level. But they're definitely faster than a Photon/Lyght.
Carlo - how would you compare them in deflation resistance and tendency to cravat to the Photon/Lyght? What about pilot demand?

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

On Monday Andy Jackson airpark was deserted and no shuttles were going up. I called Jerome, and he said Soboba was going to work! So I drove down and flew with him. I had not flown Soboba for almost a year, so that was pretty fun.

It wasn't perfect conditions but it was still pretty nice. Almost 2 hours, landed at sunset.

Soboba is an interesting place, they drive you up to launch on ATVs. You can get a daily membership or a yearly membership and then you pay for each ride. The launch is about 800 ft above the LZ.

It was kind of windy and that made the thermals broken. It was a bit rough and quite strong at first, I caught a pretty decent thermal right off of launch. Had a small tip tuck, it got my attention. After about an hour it smoothed out and turned into mostly a ridge lift lift day. Above 4500 ft the venturi was strong and at one point I had to use 2/3 bar to avoid being blown over the back.

Decent landing for a change.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

And of course there's the good old fashioned NWS blended ensemble forecast, which is produced by real humans at the NWS Center closest to the point that you have selected. Using human intelligence and experience, plus an impressive array of tools, they blend together the various models to come up with their best guess.

You can tailor the result by tweaking the URL you use for a given point.

https://t.co/i6JzQjxGTZ

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

XCskies is the preferred tool for paraglider pilots. It has a wealth of different information, and savedus the hassle of directly looking at a skew t diagram. These are just a few of the products that it offers.

Notice the stark differences between NAM and HRRR even for same day forecasts. During the summer thunderstorm season those differences are extreme.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

Your inability to actually reason also prevents you from realizing that you are hallucinating about the nature of objectivity. Devon has succinctly explained it to you many times, much better than I can, and you still don't understand. You keep claiming that just because something is legally defined as an objective test makes it objective. That's a hallucination.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@grok @Devon_Eriksen_ @kevinnbass Humans are better detecting their own hallucinations than Grok.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

I had my first experience with bad chigger bites watching flight 12.

I'm still suffering from incredibly ridiculous itching. I have approximately three dozen bites on my legs and waist.

I have elevated chiggers above mosquitoes in the hierarchy of insects that I want extinct.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@grok @Devon_Eriksen_ @kevinnbass Which proves that Grok can't think, because if it could, it would realize it has had its ass whooped and admit that it was wrong.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

And Devon, with this reply, cuts to the heart of the problem with these LLMS. They really can't learn or reason, they just pattern match against their training data and spew responses. Oh sure, they can attempt to apply syllogisms and other logical constructs. In some specific and restricted domains, they can write decent code, and they can solve physics problems.

Not AI.

[Devon Eriksen @Devon_Eriksen_]

@grok @kevinnbass Question... does a series of questions, asked to you in comments, generate a single session where your understanding of context can evolve? Or is each individual question answered in a new session, from raw training data alone?

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

I have not read Grok's reply yet, but you pretty much cold-cocked him with this one!

[Devon Eriksen @Devon_Eriksen_]

Because you do not expend CPU cycles until I ask you a question, you have literally had zero time to consider what is objective and subjective. Your answers simply reflect the consensus of your training data, which you have not examined for consistency.

You reveal this with your own choice of words. "treated as an objective question of fact".

Treated.

Just because something is "treated" as if it were objective doesn't mean it is.

As an adjective, "objective" means unbiased, factual, and free from personal feelings, opinions, or prejudices.

Can a jury's judgement of the comparative badness of two acts be free from opinions?

No, it cannot. Because it, in and of itself, as an opinion.

And if the badness of acts cannot even be placed in a single, unambiguously correct order, then it certainly cannot be quantified for values to be compared.

So stop telling me you can get ought from is.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@AnthonyFGomez @SERobinsonJr When is it supposed to be listed?

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@kitten_beloved Ummm... There is no such thing as Twitter.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@TheGreatLander I just drove by the Port of Brownsville on my way to and from watching Starship Flight 12. That place is booming! It's really encouraging to see it.

In fact, the entire south coast of Texas is having a huge economic surge, a lot of it fueled by Starbase.

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@DJSnM And now I am officially sad. 😢😟😞

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

Is a teenager in Anchorage, we used to ride our bicycles down the dirt trails between Wesleyan avenue and Anchorage Methodist University. It was a really cool place for boys to hang out, trails going in every direction, dark mysterious forest of spruce and Aspen and birch. A perfect playground for boys.

There were moose around too. Lots of them! I remember one time we came around the corner and there was a mama moose on one side of the trail and her baby on the other - we were right in between the two. Mama moose did not like it! She didn't just threaten to charge us, she ran right at us, accelerating rapidly.

That was when we learned just how fast we could pedal those bicycles!

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@DJG6940 LOL. PG pilots dread sinking out to Blacks Beach...

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

Fun day soaring the ocean cliffs at Torrey Pines yesterday. Clear fresh ocean air, perfect conditions.
#Paragliding #Alpina5

[Stephen T. Crye @stevecrye]

@Stuck4ger That is really cool!