Of course that's your contention. You're a first-time SaaS bear. You just got finished listening to some podcast, Dario on Dwarkesh, probably. Now you think it’s the end of white collar work and seat-based pricing is screwed. You're gonna be convinced of that til tomorrow when you get to “Something Big is Happening”. Then you’ll install ClawdBot on a Mac Mini, vibe code a dashboard on top of a postgres database and say we’re all just a couple ralph loops away from building a Salesforce competitor. That’s gonna last until next week when you discover context graphs, and then you're gonna be talking about how the systems of record will be disintermediated by an agentic layer and reposting OAI marketing graphics.
“Well, as a matter of fact, I won't, because ultimately the application layer is just ….”
The application layer is just business logic on top a CRUD database. You got that from Satya’s appearance on the BG2 pod, December 2024, right? Yeah, I saw that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us? Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter? Or...is that your thing? You get into the replies of anyone posting a SaaS ticker. You watch some podcast and then pawn it off as your own idea just to impress some VCs and embarrass some anon who’s long SaaS? See the sad thing about a guy like you is in a couple years you're gonna start doing some thinking on your own and you're gonna come up with the fact that there are two certainties in life. One: don't do that. And two: you dropped thirty grand on Mac Minis and LLM API calls to come to the same conclusion you could’ve got for free by following a handful of VC accounts.
The view that imagines AI wiping out jobs or causing some overnight shock to the system doesn’t contemplate that companies are a made up of a series of bottlenecks. When AI accelerates work in one area, you run into a bottleneck somewhere else.
As any individual workflow gets more efficient, the ultimate productivity gain is still constrained by some other part of the system. And usually it’s the case that that part of the system will not have inherently seen the same impact of AI efficiency, which means humans are still doing the work.
Take almost any process in an enterprise and you can see how this plays out. If AI Agents generate leads for the sales team, the bottleneck will be humans to have conversations with those customers. And if the leads are good, that will mean more sales hiring. If AI Agents generate more code, you will eventually be bottlenecked by the engineers that can review and incorporate that code into production.
You can quickly see how this scales to any process in an organization. Economists and others tend to totally miss how work actually happens in a company; it’s not a series of wholly independent tasks, but instead highly interdependent tasks that all link to each other across a system.
This is of course the natural rate limiter of AI efficiency gains, but also the reason why humans will still be doing so many jobs in the future.
After the loss to the Bengals in the AFCCG and the Tyreek Hill trade, I remember thinking Phase 1 of the Patrick Mahomes Era was over.
Phase 2 has been more successful than anyone could have imagined. But it ended today. The 2022 draft guys are getting paid. Time to retool.
I am critical of NFL refs because they are awful. They blow it in the biggest moments in a league that has sold its soul to gambling apps. Attributing a once in a generation superstar’s mile-long resume to refs is microwaved meatloaf temperature IQ discourse.
I'm repeating this for emphasis: the Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win eight consecutive playoff games without missing the playoffs during their streak.
Some history for Travis Kelce:
Adds to his record of playoff catches, with 172. Rice has 151.
Draws to within 220 yds of Jerry Rice for most playoff yards. Travis has 2020, Jerry 2245.
Draws to within 2 TDs of Jerry Rice for most playoff touchdowns. Travis has 20, Jerry has 22
Some history for Andy Reid:
300 career total wins, 4th all time. 33 behind Belichick & 47 behind Shula for most all time.
27 career career playoff wins. Just 4 behind Belichick for most all time.
Some history for Patrick Mahomes:
16 playoff wins & 7th Conference Championship game appearance, ties Joe Montana for 2nd most ever in both.
7-0 in Divisional Round, best record in any round for any QB.
Only QB ever to win a playoff game every year as a starter.