stefano marelli

[stefano marelli @stevemac8691]

@stirling_j Agree !!l

[Jamie Hamilton @stirling_j]

Azeglio Vicini's Italy at the 1990 World Cup.
Zenga, Baresi, Maldini, Ferri, Bergomi, Ancelotti, Berti, De Agostini, De Napoli, Giannini, Donadoni, Baggio, Vialli, Schillaci...
One of the most underrated international tournament teams.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

$DRAM CME to launch futures market for computing power $MU $SNDK
A new 2x DRAM ETF is bent launched. These things usually have terrible timing. I recall $KOL etf was delisted right at the bottom of coal market in 2020. $COAL ETF was launched Jan 2024 at the local top and went down 46% over 15 months.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

4) Cycles projection from Apr 2025 suggests a low early May, bounce to create a secondary peak late May or 1st week of June and significant decline into July low
-IMO next few weeks we should see a lower high or divergent high higher in $SOXX $SMH
-Price has already exceed all cycle projections using Hurst method by double digits in just 3 weeks; so we are in extreme territory. Reversal down the line will create significant downside targets as price is too stretched from MAs and price offsets - I will post update once projections get confirmed. For now waiting to see where this rally stops.
-If you like this type of content - retweet the post

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

$SPX upd:
-Big picture remains unchanged: I am expecting a bear market with a buyable 3.5Y cycle low around Q3
-See below Dec 2024 projection with updated price
-20W cycle low came on time (1 day after ideal date of Mar 27 in pinned post)
-I didn’t expect new ATH: I thought we’d reject around golden pocket retracement. Between CTA mechanical bid and Trump playing the market like violin we have the blow off top I was expecting in Feb, market always finds a way to laugh at you
-The new 40d cycle is 1/2 way through and next week should tell us whether this rally has more upside or terminates here
-For my base bear case I had Apr 17 as turn date, but so far no signs of a slowdown in buying yet. Opex often provides a pivot in the cycle - or a few days after it.
-Based on Hurst method we still have potential several % more upside in $SPX which I’m not chasing as just like in Feb when I exited the market RR for a trader like me who likes holding positions for several months is not great and we have weekend headline risk.
-Timing wise next 40d low is due ~May 7 which should give us more info on the structure (depth of a pullback and strength of a bounce into late May) which then sets up bigger decline into a higher degree summer low.
-Leading indicators showing bigger decline is still ahead in a few weeks so staying cash heavy.
-If you want more updates - like and retweet

[stefano marelli @stevemac8691]

@stirling_j Me too

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

Wild thought: what if trumps strategy is destroying all middle eastern #oil cutting off China +prices skyrocket making US a strategic producer controlling large share of energy production?
-I am long $FANG and some other US names eg $DVN with upside potential and still priced reasonably in a normal $70 oil environment post conflict resolution whenever that comes. Nice 4 year bases suggest a multi quarter trend move could be developing.
-Canadian names ran quite a bit so brainstormed some other ideas with folks who are more knowledgeable. I think buying quality names outside of U.S. that’s haven’t run much and give high divy floor is a way to supplement US exposure in case of export ban by trump. $VAR.OL $VARRY $AKR.OL $AKRBY with 10%+ divy as solid floor. $EC $PBR with more upside to oil prices but lower floor.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

Other ideas that were suggested (no idea about fundamentals - relying purely on what ppl recommended and charts):
Santos $STO.AX $SSLZY
Woodside $WDS.AX $WOPEF
No one knows how long this lasts or long term impact on energy prices. But we can’t dig our head in the sand and trust trump will figure it out. I’d rather start positioning for longer conflict while focusing on names that work with $70 oil (not punting any shitcos).
$KGEI $KEI.TO exploration upside - in back in after exiting for over 2x a year ago.
$VET small Canadian diversified energy.
NFA - assume I have no idea what I’m talking about.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

@Bob17631869 It’s already shifted - had peak early Feb, now showing trend move lower. So I think oversold bounces in stocks will jist create lower highs and be sold into.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

Close up look shows acceleration to the downside:

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

I’ve been waiting last few months for signs that 3.5 year cycle has topped. We’ve been buyers of dips as models were bullish. It has changed in Feb when I posted that I went mostly cash and now all models I track are now on a weekly sell signal / bear regime.
-The last time we had a similar set up was Dec 2021 and we went defensive before the bear market which positioned us well to be buyers of stocks at bargain prices later in 2022. Now current 3.5Y cycle is peaking/rolling over - time to pay attention.
-I don’t like playing Monday morning quarterback so I try to give you my actionable primary roadmap a few months out and adjust along the way based on cycles, models, technicals etc. Saying something was obvious after the fact doesn’t help anyone.
-Below is my experimental $SPX composite leading indicator which I’ve been working on for several years combining various cross-asset signals. Not meant to perfectly time every micro move but can be used as a confluence for larger trend changes
-In Dec ‘25 I saw upside headfake move (UTAD in Wyckoff terms) in Q1 2026 and then rollover; now with more data coming in it’s suggesting a bigger decline in Mar-Apr - in line cycles/ models / TA
- $SPX is still only -3.4% below ATH so real correction hasn’t even started. When talking heads on CNBC start panicking it will be too late. Not trying to fear monger, just calling it what models are showing. Capital preservation is key.
-I take time out of my weekend to post this to open people’s eyes to a potential significant downside in the market and consider contingency plans. If you find it helpful and want to get more updates - please retweet.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

$KOSPI $EWY Korea in final stages of blow off top
-110% above 200WMA
- Weekly RSI divergence forming
-Only 1987-89 went higher
-160% up from Apr 2025 low
-22 unfilled gaps below lol
-40% of index are 2 stocks
-First 20% drop should be very quick

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

#OIL 2026 projection. Note, it was created in April 2024 (pink area is forecast). Main idea last year was Q1 rally, dip, summer rally and buyable low mid dec
-We have early signs 18M cycle has bottomed and price is trying to hold above 200 DMA. As long as it’s above, I remain constructive on oil
-We are due 4-5 year cycle low, possibly also formed in dec ‘25.
-Not trying to predict if Iran escalation happens, how long it lasts or if it impacts oil but cycles have potential formed a major low (need to confirm in spring via higher weekly low). Since oil is uncorrelated or inversely correlated to stocks, it could act as diversifier in the event of a prolonged war.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

We are 95% into the bull run & in a topping window for the 3.5Y cycle so I used last few days to lock gains & reposition retirement accounts into MMFs/T-bill. The last miles is hardest, if market has ~5% upside next few weeks, it might not be worth risk to me given 20%+ downside.

[Jamie Hamilton @stirling_j]

I recently made an analysis video on the attacking concepts of Spalletti's Juventus with @ruxi on @TH_GAME_CHANGER.
Full video is linked below...👇

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

@marketplunger1 Beware of Wyckoff spring in $DXY next few weeks. Timing wise a major low is during next few weeks.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

Silver looked like local top intraday but again don’t think it’s the top. IMO short pullback then higher into mid Feb seasonal peak. Real demand from industrial use in China and Shanghai premium still significant. Yet retail rushing to sell, not real mania 🧐 At what price would you sell your physical silver? 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

5) Nasdaq composite $IXIC vs Dow Jones $DJI trend remains intact, retesting July '24 highs:

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

10) 1969 is another great structural and thematic fit with 2 major cycle lows lining up - suggests we are in a topping process and should soon roll over into a 3.5 year cycle low in Q3 2026: