Still True Secret

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.“ – Mark Twain (?) | Not Investment Advice

[triple_minded @triple3minded]

Model routers weaken lock-in — Ramp cut AI spend 40% by switching models per task, raising the question of "intelligence saturation".

[triple_minded @triple3minded]

The AI capex financing number to file: Goldman now expects $420bn of hyperscaler gross debt issuance in 2027, up more than 60% from their $250bn 2026 estimate — about half of new Treasury long-duration borrowing next year. AI capex is becoming a bond market story.

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

@triple3minded Tsinghua Professor 唐傑 Tang Jie, Zhipu AI founder and GLM model developer

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

@triple3minded "This perspective highlights open source as a practical safeguard against AI-driven inequality" (Grok)

[triple_minded @triple3minded]

Horowitz's pushback is the sharpest moment: AI can patch bugs, but we have "50 years of code and architectural ideas that weren't built for this world," plus massive centralized honeypots of consumer data — he asks whether centralized data architecture is even viable now.

https://t.co/E6vb8ygTwx

[triple_minded @triple3minded]

Scale figures Brockman cites: ~1.1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users, ~100 million in the US (roughly a third of the population), and 300 million health queries per week. Strikingly, he estimates another ~1.5 billion people have tried ChatGPT and stopped using it.

https://t.co/E6vb8ygTwx

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

Analysts “unusually” raised EPS estimates before Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings, yet 87% of S&P 500 firms still delivered positive surprises (Grok).

[triple_minded @triple3minded]

Earnings thesis

Analysts usually cut EPS estimates as earnings season approaches, but unusually raised them ahead of both Q2 and Q3 2026.

Despite the higher Q2 bar, 87% of S&P 500 companies reported positive EPS surprises, reportedly a record-high breadth of beats.

Over the past 20 years, the quarterly beat rate never dropped below 63%.

The typical size of an earnings beat remains modest—around 5%.

Therefore, estimate revisions may reflect analysts' calibration process as much as corporate performance: "estimates miss earnings," rather than earnings missing estimates.

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

Charlie Munger said “the best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more.”

He uses "know more", not "learn more (teach)". So humble.

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

https://t.co/RxxvyELLB0

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

"I love her more today than ever before." Find your true love that you can say same to yourself.

From The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett: Tony Robbins, “Yeah, I love her so much. We've been together 25 years. I love her more today than ever before. She is a force in nature, this woman. Really, really great. But yes, she's leverage in my life.”

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

Wisdom heard: the results could be similar to when governments imposing financial repression.

https://t.co/ERVn9bkxgv (Jan 2026)

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

The most important thing is to keep the most important thing the most important thing. — Shopify CEO

vs

Stephen R. Covey: “The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.”

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” — Stanley Druckenmiller

vs “You’re only as good as your last trade.”

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

@kristelfung 👍

I think truth-seeking and truth-telling could convert motivated reasoning into sound reasoning. Magic could happen.

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

“David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, articulated this perfectly in a NYTimes OpEd last week. The Al boom is both creating all new jobs in the build out of Al systems and the implementation across sectors, but also freeing up dollars to invest in areas that have been underfunded or have more demand now because of Al.”

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

@chamath @bgurley I think it is talent management. I guess Dario is addressing his team on any potential (philosophical) doubts and guilts arisen from their tech breakthroughs.

[Still True Secret @stilltruesecret]

@paulg Rational optimist. Optimistic rationalist.