Stindur

Most people read the news. I read the money behind it. Markets, macro and investing, minus the noise

[Stindur @Stindur]

@fineprnt The 30% to King plus 20% to managers is the part people skip. Half of every purse was gone before taxes even touched it

[Stindur @Stindur]

@MykhailenkoFin the song, easily. a deal pays once, a 30 second loop pays every night. same thing is happening with AI right now: everyone chases the big launch, but the money is in the boring little automation that runs every day while you sleep

[Stindur @Stindur]

@MykhailenkoFin most AI does the rookie move. ask it to sell you the pen and it’ll write 3 paragraphs about the pen. the best results i get are when i tell claude to ask me 5 questions before it writes anything. testing if that works for sales copy next

[Stindur @Stindur]

@MykhailenkoFin i think it’s the opposite of what people expect. hardware gets pricier, but the per-task cost keeps dropping because we’re getting better at not wasting tokens. most AI bills are 90% runs that do nothing

[Stindur @Stindur]

Nvidia H200 rental prices are up ~160% since January. Compute is getting more expensive, not cheaper.

a16z data shows GPU rental costs rising all year — even the A100 from 2020 isn’t cheaper than it was in January.
Demand is still ahead of supply, so older hardware gets more expensive instead of cheaper.
Most people still think compute costs only go down. This chart says the opposite.
Are you paying more for AI tools than at the start of the year?

[Stindur @Stindur]

@TheShadowQuant honest answer: no. nobody turns down 10x. the real skill is acting like you only got the 1x. i’m running the opposite experiment right now, making videos for $1.97 a pop. curious which one teaches more about discipline

[Stindur @Stindur]

there’s literally a name for it: “rockets and feathers”. prices shoot up with oil and float down like a feather when it drops. the weird part this time is brent is still at $116, so it hasn’t even started falling. what are you paying where you are?

[Stindur @Stindur]

If this chart doesn't p*ss you off, you don't drive

Gas didn't come back down. It just stopped going up

$2.96 in January. $4.79 in May. $4.29 today

That's $1.33 more per gallon than January, and Brent just settled at $116.72

Watch how little you hear about it in the 10 days before the midterms

[Stindur @Stindur]

@byHeatherLong The part markets underrate: $4+ gas into the midterms is already tightening household budgets Energy is doing part of the Fed’s job for it. Does that make a December hike less likely, or does the Fed look through it?

[Stindur @Stindur]

@StockSavvyShay @firesidealpha Sold out capacity doesn’t kill the glut risk it moves it onto balance sheets. Someone is pre-buying 2028 compute today. Who holds the bag if AI revenue lags the capex by two years?

[Stindur @Stindur]

@StockSavvyShay @DualityResearch In 2022 the Fed was hiking 400bp Now it hiked in September and futures lean toward another one in December. Maybe the multiple isn’t fear. Maybe it’s the market pricing higher for longer. What makes you sure it’s sentiment and not rates?

[Stindur @Stindur]

@InTheAssembly 18.5x looks cheap until you ask which earnings. If a big share of that 33% growth comes from the AI names, the compression is the market betting those earnings don’t last. Do you see the same compression outside the megacaps?

[Stindur @Stindur]

@NoLimitGains Meta at 108bp is the one that stands out. Its free cash flow just went negative in Q3 and it’s creating non-voting shares to raise capital. Credit is pricing it almost like Nvidia. Is the bond market late here, or is equity early?

[Stindur @Stindur]

Meta wants your money for AI. It doesn’t want your vote

Meta's business generated $32.79B in cash last quarter. It spent $34.91B on capex

Free cash flow: negative $2.12B

Same day, it announced a new share class with no voting rights, built to help raise capital

So the AI bill is moving to shareholders. The votes are staying with Zuckerberg

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

$META announced a 2-for-1 stock split, giving each owner of Class A Meta shares a non-voting Class C share.

Here's what @BrianSozzi says it means for the company. 👇

Cut through the noise with Brian Sozzi every day at 9:30 a.m. ET on Yahoo Finance.

[Stindur @Stindur]

@StockSavvyShay @brewmarkets In the middle of the biggest AI boom in history, the market just crowned the mega-cap that’s furthest behind on AI. Either that’s the smartest rotation of the year or the clearest sign people are scared of their own AI bets

[Stindur @Stindur]

@KobeissiLetter @TKL_Adam @cvpayne Index investors are near all-time highs. Stock pickers are sitting in a bear market. And the conclusion is… start picking stocks? That’s the strangest “historic opportunity” I’ve seen this year