July 30th. Q2 earnings. I think this is the most important print this company has had since going public. $TMDX
Q1 broke the thesis for a lot of people. Revenue grew 21% but operating expenses grew 42% in the same quarter. The market sold 50%~ of the market cap away.
Narrative became: TransMedics is spending itself into irrelevance.
I never bought that.
THE FLIGHTS:
TransMedics runs 22 dedicated aircraft carrying donor hearts, livers, and lungs across the country. Every flight is a billable NOP event. Every flight is trackable. The revenue follows the aircraft.
Q2 flight activity has been noticeably elevated throughout the entire quarter. Week after week, consistently tracking above Q1 run rates. The quarter closed eleven days ago. The planes were busy. Management guided full year revenue at $727-757 million. To hit that number Q2 had to step up meaningfully from Q1’s $173.9 million. The flight data says it did.
THE MARGIN STORY:
On the Q1 call management told you exactly what happened. 2026 was deliberately front loaded. ENHANCE Heart trial. DENOVO Lung trial. OCS Kidney development. European NOP build-out. Dallas maintenance hub. All at once. They told you margins would recover as spending normalized.
Q2 is the first quarter where that promise gets tested with real numbers. If gross margin recovers back toward 60% from Q1’s 58% and OpEx growth decelerates from 42%, the entire Q1 narrative reverses in a single print.
THE TRIALS:
ENHANCE Heart, heart is currently 18% of revenue growing only 3.5%. This trial targets harder to use donors currently turned away. If the data comes in the addressable heart market expands dramatically.
DENOVO Lung, lung revenue declined 29.6% last quarter. Some surgeons argue OCS doesn’t clearly beat cold storage for lungs. DENOVO generates the superiority data that ends that argument. Any enrollment update July 30th is a catalyst.
OCS KIDNEY, THE FREE OPTION:
9,000 kidneys discarded in America every year. Not because nobody wants them, because cold storage can’t preserve them long enough. Kidney is the largest transplant market in the country. 27,573 transplants in 2025. More than heart, lung, and liver combined.
TransMedics has zero kidney revenue today. IDE submission targets early 2027. Same aircraft. Same perfusionists. Same transplant center relationships. Kidney adds a new product on top of infrastructure already paid for.
When that door opens, TransMedics doesn’t enter a competitive kidney market. They create one.
EUROPE:
PAD Aviation closed. Nine aircraft. 40 pilots. Paderborn Germany, within two flight hours of most of Western Europe. OCS already CE marked for all three organs. No new trials needed. The logistics layer is being built right now, the same infrastructure build the US went through between 2022 and 2024, now being replicated on a continent with comparable transplant demand.
THE SETUP:
Flight data says Q2 revenue stepped up. Guidance required it. The question is whether the margin recovery story shows up in the actual numbers.
If Q2 shows revenue acceleration and OpEx growth decelerating simultaneously, the market has to reckon with selling a $100 stock to $69 on one quarter of deliberate investment spending in a company that still has its two biggest markets completely untouched.
Kidney. Europe. Neither in the revenue line today. Both being built right now.
103,000 people on the organ transplant waitlist.
22 aircraft getting busier all quarter.
Eleven days.
July 30th is the moment the narrative either flips or doesn’t.
SUNNY HOSTIN:
"NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW… EXCEPT MY HARVARD GRAD SON"
On The View (reacting to President Trump’s indictment), Sunny Hostin declares: “No one is above the law.”
Caught on bodycam (first on the phone with police, then in person when she arrived) after her son was stopped for trespassing on active Metro-North tracks:
“My name is Sunny Hostin and I’m one of the co-hosts of ‘The View’ and I’m a former federal prosecutor.”
“That’s my son. He’s a Harvard graduate, he doesn’t have a criminal record.”
“I’m a former federal prosecutor. He knows. He’s a Harvard grad who teaches 4th grade geometry to South Bronx kids… He’s not a kid who’s ever in trouble. It’s an innocent mistake.”
Rules for thee, not for me - especially when she’s the one constantly railing against “privilege” while invoking her celebrity status, legal background, and her son’s Harvard credentials to try to get special treatment.
NEW: The View’s Sunny Hostin seen using her privilege to try to get her son out of trouble for trespassing, tells police she is a “former federal prosecutor.”
“My name is Sunny Hostin… and I’m a former federal prosecutor,” Hostin said while telling police her son went to Harvard.
The host used her elitist privilege to try to get her son out of trouble after he was busted trespassing along Metro-North Railroad tracks in Westchester County.
“That’s my son. He’s a Harvard graduate, he doesn’t have a criminal record.”
24-year-old Gabriel Hostin claims he was jogging when he saw that the gate near the tracks was open.
He was hit with a trespass violation for what can be an arrestable offense, according to the New York Post.
Hostin has been known to shame others for their “white privilege.”
Remarkable.
$FLNC named Tier 1 energy storage supplier status in S&P Global’s 2026 Cleantech Companies & Products List.
> Second consecutive year receiving the designation.
> Assessment includes project execution, financial strength, sustainability and operating track record.
> Tier 1 status is relevant for customers and lenders evaluating supplier bankability.
A positive third-party validation for $FLNC, but execution and margins remain the key variables.
Nice writeup on $TMDX (see below) -- we're now more than halfway through July and $TMDX flights are still up +65% YoY for the month... if they stay this strong into Q2 earnings... assuming Q2 is a beat on the top line... I'd expect $TMDX to raise full year revenue guidance.
NFA.
DYOR.
@CKCapitalxx@stocktalkweekly Love seeing accounts like this … then I don’t like seeing this at all… I agree fucking pick a side and stand for it.. sooo lame!!!
$TMDX is absolutely crushing it.
Over the past 11.7 days, the company completed 435 flights, or roughly 37 flights per day, an ~11% increase MoM.
If it maintains this pace throughout Q3, $TMDX would complete approximately 3,404 flights during the quarter.
That would translate to roughly 20% QoQ growth and 64% YoY growth.
Those would be phenomenal numbers.
If this trajectory continues, a guidance raise will most likely occur, along with a significant beat on FY2026 revenue guidance.
In other words, $TMDX could have a strong rebound by the end of the year.
Nice commentary on $TMDX — so many exciting catalysts on the horizon that could/should re-accelerate YoY growth back above 30% which is definitely not priced in with $TMDX in the $70s.
The stock is on sale because of short term margin compression… because management decided it was more important to invest for the next decade than worry about the next few quarterly EPS numbers.
Management is making the right decisions for patients and long term shareholders. I believe that 100%. I just wish they had been more transparent the past couple quarters with their spending levels. Stock would not have gotten hammered if we had known the hit that net income margins was going to take and how long the margin compression would last.
$TMDX has a very loyal and passionate shareholder base… we have a vested interest in the success of this company… they are one of the few companies that can save thousands of people per year and we want to support that mission. Over the next decade $TMDX will likely save 100,000+ people that would have died waiting for a transplant.
$TMDX needs to fire their external IR team and hire a Chief Communications Officer who can oversee investor relations (bring this in-house), marketing and brand awareness/narrative. As the company launches new products and expands outside the US, it’s important that Waleed is freed up to focus on growing/running the business while someone else handles the ongoing communication with investors and analysts.
New All In: $KRKNF
Here’s the thesis, and it’s all about a clock almost nobody is watching.
Almost 4 months ago, Anduril won an award from the US Navy and the Defense Innovation Unit. The program is called CAMP, and it’s the Navy’s push to rapidly prototype and field extra large autonomous submarines.
Drone subs that can travel over 2,000 nautical miles, stay underwater for weeks, and drop payloads on the sea floor without a single sailor on board.
Buried in that contract is one line: Anduril must complete a long duration, operationally representative demonstration within 4 months of award.
Award was mid March. Do the math. That window is closing right now. The exercise should be happening in the next two weeks if it hasn’t quietly happened already.
Could they keep it confidential? It’s possible, the contract runs to the Navy, not the public. But think about it. Anduril publicly announced winning the award with a full press rollout.
You don’t post about winning the test and then go silent on the result. The demo is worth more than the award, the award says we were picked, the demo says it works.
That’s the one that sells production contracts. And knowing Palmer Luckey, this company announces everything loudly.
Here’s the key. CAMP was built as a pathway, not a test. DIU’s whole model turns a successful demo directly into production contracts, skipping the usual years of procurement. That’s the door this exercise opens.
Why it matters for Kraken: Anduril’s underwater fleet is built around Kraken’s pressure tolerant batteries and sonar. Embedded in the design, estimated millions in content per hull. Every vehicle built ships Kraken revenue with it. A successful demo is the gate between Anduril’s Rhode Island factory waiting for orders and scheduled US Navy production.
And the stock is down about 50% from its highs on zero fundamental change.
Everyone knows Kraken is inside Anduril’s subs. Almost nobody is watching the clock.
$TMDX's strategic investment in PADAVIATION has been successfully completed! 🔥 🛫 👼
$TMDX is building the first-of-its-kind dedicated pan-European transplant flight logistics network!
Video credit to PADAVIATION: