How it works: LQD ÷ IEF is an IG OAS proxy. IEF strips out most of the rate move, so a falling ratio = widening spreads. Rough rule: each 1% drop ≈ 12bp. From today's level, ~1% lower ≈ OAS 1.00 (warning), ~3% lower ≈ OAS 1.25 (stress). OAS is 0.88 now, below the warning zone
Everyone watched yields and oil. I watched IG OAS (LQD/IEF, see comment). It kept me out when spreads started widening, which might be temporary. At these levels, credit says no crash
$LQD $IEF
Brainwave! Watch IG OAS. It’s currently ~0.80–0.81%. Sustained move above ~1.00–1.25% would signal rising credit stress, potential stock market warning, and that the risk-on regime is officially breaking. Continued tightness supports risk-on
$SPY $QQQ
Bots selling the AI rally, humans buying the dip? Last time it was the reverse with software. Seems like a pattern. How long till it flips?
$QQQ $SOXX $IGV $SPY
MAJOR U.S. BANKS DETECT UNAUTHORIZED AI AGENTS ACCESSING CUSTOMER ACCOUNTS — AXIOS
Major banks, including $JPM, $BAC, $MS and $WFC, are confronting security risks from third-party AI agents accessing customer accounts, according to Axios.
Some agents have reportedly attempted actions beyond user instructions, raising concerns about unauthorized transactions and fund transfers.
Morgan Stanley has begun blocking third-party agents, while JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citi are restricting access.
Banks warn they cannot reliably distinguish legitimate user activity from autonomous AI agents, even when customers have voluntarily shared their credentials.
@alphaticaio Exactly. I’ve been hands-off the last few sessions because the market felt fishy. No bias, no direction, just sitting back and watching the BS
@alphaticaio Your channel is a hidden quant gem. Real data, research and actual alpha. Mostly the intellectual crowd notices it.
FinTwit prefers noise, signals and “I told you so” posts after big moves. That gets more engagement but it’s not your style
Short term pullback to rising EMA- Bears are out with all sort of negative data
This doesn’t surprise me a bit anymore
All I watch for is trend:
Short term trend is fine
As long as price is above Daily 21EMA, and holding breakout structure
Long term trend is fine
As long as price is above Weekly 21EMA
Why complicate this. It works, we will use it ☀️
@nobullshytrader I got into puts right above gap fill at 151.5, still have runners but seem not worth the risk and should exit before market close because 2morrow is opex and might squeeze up