THE ONLY WAY TO EXIT MOMENTUM IS ON A DRAWDOWN, LOGICALLY
IF YOU ARE BUYING BECAUSE OF TECHNICAL STRENGTH THEN SELLING INTO STRENGTH MAKES NO SENSE
SO IF YOU HAVE NO PLANS TO SELL A DRAWDOWN, YOU HAVE NO EXIT STRATEGY
I'M SORRY IF I'M THE ONE WHO HAS TO EXPLAIN THIS TO YOU
Annie Duke, world-class poker player turned decision scientist, on the single biggest alpha leak in professional investing:
"expert investors are alpha generators when putting risk on. they give alpha back on their exit decisions."
"endowments when they put positions on are generating between 120 and 180 basis points of alpha."
"their exit decisions? they're giving about 70 to 80 basis points back."
"this is why the option to quit is so incredibly valuable. this is the place where we can generate a lot of alpha compared to our competitors."
120-180 bps generated on entries. 70-80 bps given back on exits. across endowments, intraday traders, and professional fund managers, the data all says the same thing. the entry often isn't the problem. the exit is.