Splinter

“All fathers care for their sons”

[David Lee @DavidLe76335983]

Two Japanese firms just shut down their production line, cutting 25% of the world’s tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆) capacity. This is what Chinese critical minerals dominance looks like in action — slowly choking allies’ high-tech economies

Kanto Denka Kogyo (sometimes referenced with Showa Denko ties) and Central Glass have notified big chipmakers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC: inventories run out in June, lines shut for good from July 1. Boom — 2,200 tons of annual global WF₆ capacity gone. This specialized gas is essential for depositing ultra-thin tungsten layers in advanced semiconductors (3D NAND, DRAM, logic chips). Without it, fabs slow or stop

Why? China controls ~80% of global tungsten supply and refining. Beijing tightened export controls and licensing on strategic minerals (tungsten included) — hitting Japan hard. Shipments to Japan have plunged, raw material costs spiked, and these specialty gas producers can’t keep operating profitably or at all. Japanese firms were high-quality, reliable suppliers that Korea and others depended on for ~80% of their WF₆ in some cases

This isn’t random. Japanese PM Takaichi hostile posturing against China and plan to remilitarize Japan brought about Chinese sanction of dual use critical minerals (tungsten, rare earths, etc.) to Japanese companies. Higher costs, supply chaos, lost competitiveness, and eventual factory pain ripple through the semiconductor chain. Auto, electronics, defense… all feel it downstream.

Japan’s been diversifying and stockpiling, but decades of over-reliance on Chinese inputs make this a slow bleed. Allies need to accelerate onshoring, friend-shoring, and alternative processing FAST. Relying on an adversary for the guts of your chip industry isn’t strategy — it’s vulnerability

The “just-in-time” global supply chain was efficient until it wasn’t. Now it’s a national security risk. Wake-up call for anyone still sleeping on critical minerals

https://t.co/KLyOokj2CC

[China Beige Book @ChinaBeigeBook]

"The U.S. DoJ has indicted 4 Chinese shipping giants for conspiring to restrict container output to fix prices during the pandemic era, in one of the most significant antitrust actions brought against Chinese firms in years"
https://t.co/GORrFYziDU

[Henry Gao @henrysgao]

Remember the Soveit Union?

[Kirk Lubimov @KirkLubimov]

Just a usual day in Canada with a bunch of foreigners taking over our streets and glorifying assassination.

CSIS has warned about Khalistanis and they don't even hide their intentions.

When can Canada stop harboring all these donkeys using Canada as a base?

[Michael Sobolik @michaelsobolik]

My latest, in @realDailyWire, about the @DeptofWar’s decision earlier today to designate CXMT and YMTC as Chinese military companies.

It’s an important move in the broader US-China AI competition.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

One of my favorite charts from the new book:

→ In 1900, roughly 80% of US stock market value came from industries like railroads, coal, steel, and textiles.
→ Today, about 70% of the market comes from industries that were tiny—or didn't exist at all—125 years ago.

One of the great lessons of investing: The stock market is constantly renewing itself. The future winners rarely look like the past winners.

What industries dominate this chart in 2125?

→ Pre-order Investing in America: https://t.co/4drXpH7VVa
→ Learn more about the book: https://t.co/VNCHUU4EiE

[James Rickards @RealJimRickards]

My new interview @Bannons_WarRoom. Trump has 3 choices in Iran: Surrender, Stalemate & Escalation. He won't surrender, we're in stalemate but it's unstable and we're heading for escalation. Escalation won't work. It's Vietnam redux. Trump has no way out.
https://t.co/pdPICthYoj

[Jonathan Eyal @JEyal_RUSI]

Excellent podcast, exposing - perhaps unwittingly - the relative poverty and cliche-ridden world of the West's China experts. @jessicacweiss trots out all the old stuff about how nobody - apart from herself, naturally - truly understands the nuances of China policies and priorities, how China's rare earth and critical minerals strategy was just a defensive - and perhaps even accidental - move to reduce Beijing's dependency on others (while separately arguing in different fora that a similar policy of decoupling Western economies from over-dependence on China is not feasible for the West), how Xi Jinping is constrained in his domestic policies and, finally, that China does not intend to invade Taiwan, and hopes to "resolve" the problem "peacefully". Hands up, anyone who has had even a passing interest in China and has not heard all these things before

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Didn't realize that China, the world's second largest economy, was entitled to grow through net exports -- traditionally, there was a sense that trade should be two way

[Richard Christopher Whalen @rcwhalen]

Remember what @JohnDizard said in April?? | "John Dizard: Watch for Rationing of Oil, Gas & By-Products" | https://t.co/Nt0g8gJEDa @jimcramer @zerohedge @POTUS

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington found its counter to Iran's $24 billion demand: spend the frozen money on the countries Iran keeps hitting

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has ordered officials to tally the damage Gulf partners have suffered from Iranian attacks and price out repair and recovery costs, as the administration weighs using frozen Iranian assets to compensate for past and future damage linked to Tehran.

Think through what that does.

Iran says the entire deal hinges on getting its $24 billion back.

Treasury's answer is to start metering that pot out to Kuwait and Bahrain, so every missile Tehran fires at its neighbors now drains its own recoverable fortune.

The airport terminal, the casualties, the repairs, it all gets billed to Iran's account.

Source: Reuters

[#FreeJimmyLai @SupportJimmyLai]

History remembers the people who refused to stay silent. Jimmy is one of them.

He denounced Chinese communism, defended the rule of law, and gave Hong Kong a free press, knowing exactly what it would cost him.

"I believe that if I do the right thing, the strength will come." — Jimmy Lai

#FreeJimmyLai

[New York Post @nypost]

Pols send chilling warning to White House about China fueling anti-AI data center protests in US https://t.co/4vyqWT6oRW

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

NEW: American journalist pleads guilty to working as a Chinese agent.

[Bad Hombre @Badhombre]

Reminder that Chinese spy Christine Fang (Fang Fang) worked for Ro Khanna’s 2014 congressional campaign.

This is why Ro has never commented publicly on the matter and why he opposes the FBI releasing the entirety of the Fang Fang files. He’s all over them.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Lululemon $LULU on their next earnings call

[Splinter @Stoicdrifter]

@zerohedge Who cares. Poor millionaires begging taxpayers to fund their stadium!

[Splinter @Stoicdrifter]

@cullenroche Stupid kid, serves him right.