@KittenswapHype TGE in 7 days. time for some moonmath again lol
So a while back i ran a lil monte carlo sim to figure out what a fair FDV could be at launch... grabbed data from defillama, coingecko and cryptofees. Stuff like tvl, volume, daily fees etc and benchmarked against other dexes like uni, curve, gmx and pancakeswap.
Based on that i ended up with some conservative multiples:
• 8× annualized fees
• 0.65× tvl
• 0.005× annual volume
I plugged in today’s numbers (tvl ~$37m, volume ~$28m, fees ~$52k) and came out with an average fdv of 75m. Will it actually launch there? No clue. But with hyperevm growing fast and the early traction kitten had, i was happy to farm early and ape into all 3 presales. I stopped farming once the whales moved in, but risk/reward still looks solid long term.
What now? With only 55k hype raised, I think the ROI at TGE could be nice. I’ll probably stick to the plan and derisk around launch. or maybe not. Would be dope to see it push toward 300m+ in the next 6 months tho.
In the meantime i’ve rotated into farming @gliquidx, @hybrafinance and @hyperbloomxyz... all early, all quiet, all onchain. If kitten’s anything to go by, these could follow.
Props to @shinji2048 for shipping, @hypingbull for the early alpha + math, and @blockofgoodhope for the whale juice
ref links if u wanna farm too:
hybra: https://t.co/iMt4I7vxld
hyperbloom: https://t.co/OXs3kvSlhG
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