Anthropic pre-IPO gamesmanship post. Pure speculation but sharing as curious for thoughts.
Anthropic shifted from gross to net ARR accounting and stripped out both Meta and Chinese distillation from their $65 billion ARR number. Meta speculated to be over $5 billion in ARR so taking them out means they can easily weather it when Meta turns them off shortly after being public, which is widely expected. Also decreases the odds of Meta turning them off, watermelon quality dependent. All smart.
Then release Fable 5.1 so OpenAI feels confident releasing Astra. Vibes here on Astra are really good btw. I think that Astra was probably better than Anthropic was expecting.
Now there are whispers that Anthropic has solved Navier-Stokes, which would be super impressive.
Anthropic probably releases Fable 5.2, which should be better than Astra unless something is awry, sometime before the IPO. Likely also planning on showing a significant reacceleration in ARR in September which will of course leak to the press.
Grok 4.7, Meta’s Watermelon and ChatGPT 6.1 all likely coming in the next 6 weeks as well. All those labs are confident about their roadmaps in a way I have not seen in the last 18 months. And we will see about Gemini 4. Competitors get a vote in all these plans.
Grok Bot feels like the best agentic harness yet for enterprise use cases and Instinct is a promising agentic harness for consumer use cases. Should see variations of both from competitors soon. Grok Bot remains transformational for my use cases.
And all this is happening into a continued acceleration in overall AI demand.
Wild times.
As an aside, I think Krishna might turn out to be an exceptional CFO. His former Blackstone colleagues speak super highly of him. Going to be important as communicating clearly to Wall Street if they decide to shift their compute from inference to training will be difficult to digest the first time. Probably worth studying Amazon’s invest and then “check-in” margin strategy from 2010 through maybe 2016, which investors eventually understood.
Hey @fal ! After 7 hours of live vibe-coding, I now have an infinite @Twitch stream running live, with the story generated directly from the Twitch chat.
Everything is fully automated, with a continuous stream using the last frame as a reference.
No DMCA or NSFW content, thanks to moderation. AI is also running live to monitor all user inputs.
Currently, we rely on donations to keep generating and running the live stream.
Happy to discuss how we could make it truly infinite with your help!! :D
@rehan_shei@isidentical@jfischoff@gokayfem@RenLeanna
長いエロ動画から、オーガズムを含む10秒間を見つけて、ComfyUIの動画生成用参照素材として切り出す仕組みを、ここまでほぼQwen3.8 27Bと作ってきた。
手作業で大量の動画を確認するのは大変だし、発情してしまう。そこで、AIに動画を見せて「どこがオーガズムか」と聞いても、まだ正確には判断できない。
試しにとあるAVモデルさんのエロ動画の
音声・映像の動き・動きのフリーズのスコアを眺めてたら、
オーガズムの瞬間の特徴として次のような傾向があった
A. 100〜1500Hzの喘ぎ声→その後の急減衰
B. フレーム間の映像変化量急増
C. freeze、コマ止め、ディゾルブなどのソフト遷移
試しにこれらから条件を決めたスクリプトを書かせて、オーガズム候補の位置を探したところ、結構ビクビクなってる感じのところが溜めれたからまあ良いんかなと。
この後は、それを自動化して、24fps・H3規定フレーム数へ整形して、そのままComfyUIへ投入できるようにする。
もう少しデータが集まったら、絶頂の瞬間とそうでない瞬間の数値データを学習させ、CatBoostくらいの軽量な機械学習で自動的にカットを切り出せるようにしたい。
ただ、オーガズム時の声や動きは人によって異なる。最終的にはAVモデルごとに学習モデルを作るか、個人差を補正する仕組みが必要になるとは思う。そこまではQwen3.8 27B でいけたら面白い。
グラフのGTが絶頂の瞬間。
A B C 全部で絶頂かと言われるとそうでもない。
この辺のパターンが人間だと良くわからない→分類器作ろ。
この発想は、投資の売買シグナルの選別によく似てると思う。
If you're a wallet, please, never ever show zero balances for accounts unless you are 100% sure they are zero. If you're loading or lagging, cross it out or show some other indicator, never a zero. Fucking heart attack this morning (looking at you, @MetaMask).