@RepDianaDeGette Supply and demand? Lack of drilling permits and new pipelines? Underinvestment in oil from 2019-2022? Sanctions on one of the largest oil producers? Post pandemic demand growth?
I can name a few more…
Asked about the timeline for oil prices to recede, Bessent clarified that “I don’t know whether it’s going to be 50 days. I
don’t know whether it’s going to be a hundred days.”
if it’s 50-100 days before the pullback starts, people aren’t going to like the new floor. #EFT#OOTT
@nntaleb Once the SPR dump has been completed, and the futures trades unwind, we’re going to see WTI close the spread between Brent and result in massive inflation of prices across all industries that consume refined hydrocarbon products I.e. shipping, airlines, manufacturing, and farming
A couple of weeks ago, I said that the tail risks of the duration and magnitude of this war were grossly underestimated. We’re starting to see the impacts of the closure in the Strait of Hormuz as well as SUPPLY destruction create 2nd and 3rd order effects in fertilizers and food.
@nntaleb The underestimation of tail risks I’ve seen have been astounding… from duration by the administration to the magnitude of price shocks forecasted by the commodities desks at JPM and Goldman, nobody has begun “forecasting” second and third order tail risks.