@LinkofSunshine Hundreds of responses, and *all* of them claiming the example was totally wrong, or that it didn't make sense, or complaining about the lack of terminology which they often used totally incorrectly.
Funniest thing I've ever seen. Not a single response was correct.
@LinkofSunshine I once posted in a rationalist forum (subreddit?) a motivating example of conditional probabilities from a textbook, one that illustrated the base rate fallacy, but acted like I came up with the example. The example didn't use any terminology or anything since it was motivating.
I don't want to pick on this person specifically but this view, which a lot of people seem to hold, deserves a HARD pushback.
TBC, I don't think people should kill themselves absent narrow circumstances. Most suicide is a result of mental illness.
But this is still wrong.
@josiahcolborn@mikemearls The average for any check is "10+mod" so, given the DC (or avg. in a contested roll) plus situational modifiers (eg, the NPC agrees with you), and given that 50% of rolls are > 10 already, does it really make sense? Does that number model any actual real-world failure chances?
@josiahcolborn@mikemearls No there isn't. There's no reason to roll if an NPC agrees with what someone's said because they made a good argument! And the DM *is* the NPC, they decide what they are thinking! That's not a reasonable chance of failure that can be modeled by a d20 roll with a modifier.
In other news, today the NIH proposed caping the maximum of grants at 2 per research lab, including collaborations.
https://t.co/7QBldPofz0
We're living in the upside down.
@josiahcolborn@mikemearls This isn't rocket science... Given what the player said, and the character's abilities, is there a reasonable chance of failure?
How's someone going to fuck up unscrewing a bedpost?
OTOH, they might easily miss the bedpost in a search.
@GeorgeJourneys The guy's obviously a dumb racist, but college admissions really is quite dysfunctional, and you can't really make any claims about this school based on the information here.
I say North Korean style not as hyperbole to catch attention, by the way, but because this is a policy already in place in North Korea. Every phone in the country runs a hidden background app taking screenshots that can't be deleted.
No other country has this.
Hey DOGE and NEWSMAX, can we get an update here?Β Β
Turns out preventing a flesh-eating parasite from invading U.S. livestock wasnβt government wasteβ¦
@Samuel_Gregson@CERN He literally just disappeared one day after his adviser decided to quit mid-year to work for a tech company. Never heard from him again. Hope you're okay buddy π’.
@Samuel_Gregson@CERN Years ago a friend of mine wanted to make a puzzle-matching style game where you assemble Feynman diagrams.
It actually sounded like it could be a pretty fun idea, but he never made it. He was one of the many, many casualties of academia being a Kafkaesque hellscape.
@dilanesper I think this is actually at the root of why modern politics is like it is. Donald Trump can only come out of a system that is just as unserious and unbelievable as him!
We will never be able to fix politics without answering for this and making a system people can actually trust.