Good example here of why CLV (closing line value) matters.
Took Dolphins -4.5 yesterday and it’s now sitting at -6.5. That’s a clean 2 point move in our favour before kickoff.
Nothing’s guaranteed obviously, but beating the closing line like that is where the long term edge comes from. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the market closes at, results take care of themselves over time.
Also sorry for the essay but will be restarting out betting record here as the others haven’t been properly posted. I’ll let you know what’s a bot play and what’s a degen me bet from here on
Early play: Dolphins -4.5 (1u)
Love this number at Suncorp. Anything under the 6 grabs my attention, and if team lists land clean, this could easily steam out before kickoff.
Just touching on why I’ve made this bet- REAL long term winners aren’t the guys picking the winning team, they are the ones beating CLV (closing line value)
There’s is quite literally zero value by the time you’re picking any teams so most resort to try scorers
We buy low here preparing for team lists to drop, watch line movement then I will be personally looking at adding another 0.5U to this
Fuck gambling, we’re trying to win
That’s it.
We'll see where this line closes.
@1WeakGuttedDog Trust me brother, you don’t want to see my resulted bets right now
Bad beat after bad beat then put the house on Strange to score . . .
Fuck it, phins beat the wahs so I can rub it in everyone’s faces over here 🙂
@theWilldabeasts@buddy_lov3 Ah mate it’s unbearable
Nothing has been as bad as the first few calls here
If Strange’s try isn’t a try then that cunt who put one down with the tip of his finger shouldn’t be either and don’t get me started about Tamale’s catch out of bounds
@LeagueScenePod Cunt just can’t catch
Feel for him but what do you expect, rookie winger against someone who has been getting over the line 58% of the time and is tricky in the air
Made Thai bet live 3 minutes before he gets subbed and not even voided
Scammy cunts @betcha_nz
Worst thing to happen to New Zealand and never seen betting pushed as hard as it is currently because they have a complete monopoly on it
You can have this donation as I’ll be taking it right back in about 30 minutes 🖕