Study Fate

keep studying fate

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Threadguy reveals why NFTs died but meme coins are fully prepared to dominate another cycle.

Crypto is in an uncomfortable spot right now. It is very unclear what the next wave is going to be or what will keep people engaged. We have tried a bunch of different verticals, RWAs, and launch mechanisms, but nothing else is sticking.

It is hilarious that the current thing continuing to hold attention is meme coin and on-chain deploys. The psychology behind how this works is fascinating, but it clearly does work, and we are still here.

The last 18 months were not enough to wipe them off the face of the earth. Think about it: NFTs did not do multi-cycle. DeFi food farms did not do multi-cycle. ICOs did not do it.

Meme coins are one of the only verticals prepared to do it. Like them, hate them, or feel no type of way about them, it is hard to see a future where they get completely wiped off the earth.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Ansem breaks down the exact moment overconfidence wipes out your portfolio [Throwback 2023]

You see people spin up 100x by going all in, but continuing to trade without risk parameters will eventually wreck you.

Crypto markets go up only for months at a time. When you are long during those stretches, your confidence continuously rises until you believe you are a genius. That confidence tricks you into making trades with zero risk consideration at all.

This traps a lot of people at the end of bull markets. You keep going all in and completely forget that you originally planned to take profit.

The solution is to journal a ton when you trade. It is incredibly easy to get lost on a daily basis and forget what your thinking was a few weeks or months prior.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Peter Schiff breaks down why Bitcoin adoption is a complete illusion built on fear and greed.

He looks at gold as just money, but argues nobody is actually adopting Bitcoin. People are just gambling on it. You are told you will get rich if you buy it, and poor if you do not. The pressure to buy comes entirely from the people who already own it and need to recruit new suckers to keep the thing going.

There are no real uses for it at all. You do not go into stores and see signs asking you to pay with Bitcoin.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Rasmr breaks down why recreating the Solana trenches on Robinhood adds absolutely nothing.

We have already seen narratives like the GME coin play out on Solana. Instead of repeating that cycle, the focus should be entirely on letting Robinhood build out their product, their real-world assets, and their infrastructure.

CashCat is already established as a leading meme on the platform, and while Banker might launch a few coins, flooding the app with a thousand different memes is pointless.

You do not need a thousand memes. You just need one or two that actually run.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Rasmr breaks down why a reliable 2 to 5X on $CASHCAT is being ignored for bullshit.

He explains that if you just focus more on the main runners instead of trenching projects under a mil, we would be much higher at this point.

He notes that the reason the coin is stalling is because everybody feels like they missed the boat, shifting their focus to new coins and narratives.

He clarifies that the multiples are still reliably there if people just believed in the main runner instead of annoyingly directing their attention elsewhere.

[Study Fate @studyfate]

The people in crypto can be up monstrously and still want to gamble more. They aren't searching for just wealth, they want entertainment.

[Study Fate @studyfate]

lmao I'm watching DBZ in @sumfattytuna's stream ts is lit

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Mert breaks down why Bitcoin is technically just a massive meme coin.

While traders obsess over price targets to gauge sizing and downside risk, he admits he only posts them to get Twitter riled up. The real focus is on the underlying memes and what becomes possible if a specific thesis actually works.

He points out a fundamental irony in the space: crypto without privacy is not really crypto, making it incredibly weird that cryptographic money is actively avoiding cryptography.

But the biggest spread of all comes down to cash flow.

Because assets like Bitcoin and even Solana do not generate actual cash flows or buybacks, they fundamentally have to be based on pure belief.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Threadguy breaks down why returning to Los Angeles feels like visiting a ghost town.

On his first trip back since leaving, he went walking to get dinner at 9:00 PM on a Friday night in Santa Monica and found the streets completely empty. He questioned if everyone just packed up and left at the exact same time because there was absolutely nobody there.

Even though he acknowledges that people do not typically walk in LA and Santa Monica is usually pretty dead, he says the city just feels like it is over. For him, there is simply no comparison between those empty streets and the reality of walking around Manhattan on a Friday night.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Jason Calacanis breaks down why the happiest country in the world holds the blueprint to saving the American dream.

In Australia, citizens are extremely happy and feel safe because of superannuation funds, which act as a forced savings model where a percentage of your income goes directly into an account you control.

Meanwhile, Americans are so anxious about the future that many refuse to have kids. The system has become incredibly hard, leaving single parents on minimum wage stuck struggling for life.

By adapting this Australian forced-savings model, we can make every citizen part of an equity nation rooted in entrepreneurship.

It gives kids a real shot, gets the country back on the rails, and could replace Social Security entirely.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Thiccy explains why the constant dopamine loops on the internet make the real world feel incredibly slow.

After hitting his financial number and losing motivation to work, taking six months off in New York proved one thing: normal life feels slow and bureaucratic by comparison.

The actual frontier of humanity is online. The motivation is no longer chasing a number, but engaging in the constant iteration, the fast-paced evolution of ideas, and executing trades with the smartest people in the world.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Threadguy reveals the one place on the internet you need to hyper-focus on for the next decade.

He explains that CT is the best place to spend the next 5 to 10 years and just spend way too much time in. Because as a proxy, this space exposes you to the bleeding edge of every adjacent internet industry.

He points out that everything happening in AI, robotics, politics, and internet culture sort of conforms around price action in the crypto niche. If you choose to hyper-focus on this one place, he says you will by default be as far ahead as possible.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Thiccy breaks down why the entire concept of money is about to become completely obsolete.

The whole arc of humanity has been about explaining the unexplained. Now, AI reasoning is getting so good that it will eventually take all the easy trades and deconstruct every part of what it means to be human.

When AI is doing everything, human labor is no longer useful. The whole point of money is to get others to do things for you. If AI does it all, why do they need you? And if they have all the power, what value does money actually have?

While money still matters on the path to get from where we are to that destination, it is not the terminal end state. The grand game we are playing right now is figuring out how to transition that money into whatever comes next before the end mission arrives.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Thiccy breaks down why staring at the screen every day is exactly why you sell too early.

We are an exponential moving average of our prior experiences. When you spend hours every day tapped in, staring at the screen, you memorize the last 20 days. You know the steady state. You know what could possibly happen tomorrow.

But by fitting too closely to local price movements, you lose the broader view of your place in the world and where this thing could actually go.

It is like waking up and going to the same casino every single day. You might not notice when a whole crowd leaves another casino to come jack yours up. So at the first pump, you sell.

You completely miss the context that a huge wave is coming over and you are actually very early.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Connor Murphy’s friend details the bizarre reality of how Connor Murphy was the very first looksmaxxer.

He was an optimizer in every single way. He counted every calorie, never missed a macro, and made sure every workout had the exact perfect amount of sets and reps. He was always striving for the absolute best physically, mentally, and spiritually.

Things got wacky, but amazing.

He literally wouldn't wash his hands just to protect his natural skin's microbiome. Yet for somebody so good-looking, a Chad with a crazy physique, he had the smallest ego imaginable. He was completely open and free about everything he did and didn't care who knew about it.

He would tell you the most embarrassing thing and not give two shits. He freely broke down his penis extending protocol in such a beautiful way that it actually had his friend considering buying an extender.

He just wanted to level up in every single way, and nothing was going to stop him from trying.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Thiccy details why the crypto dopamine trap is actually holding you back.

The market moves so fast that the charts put you in a natural flow state. You get a constant rush without really needing to concentrate. But that same rush creates the biggest issue: it makes it incredibly hard to step back and just think.

It is way too easy to tunnel vision on the micro events constantly hitting your feed.

The real balance is knowing when to walk away. Once you hit a specific net worth milestone, it is crucial to tear yourself away from the screen and take time off. You have to reflect on your goals, who you are, and what this whole experience has revealed about you as a person.

Giving up short-term market opportunities for that deeper thinking always yields a much bigger benefit.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Rasmr breaks down the biggest realization he had after doing shrooms a week ago.

On Friday, July 3rd, he came to a conclusion. He realized that he just needs to have a calmer aura.

He actually does shrooms once a year. Every July 4th he does them with his friends. Last year it was in Newport, and it was crazy.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Threadguy destroys Ed Zitron's thesis that LLMs are a bad and useless product.

He reveals that he still relies on AI every single day, calling it one of the greatest products the human race has ever created.

He admits it has not made him a trillion dollars or radically revolutionized his life, but he argues it serves an infinite purpose by completely replacing his need for Google and Reddit.

Instead of digging through forums for personalized advice, he uses AI to solve highly specific problems on the fly without even realizing it.

If he experiences sharp pain during a lift, he simply feeds the AI his exact routine, notes his specific labrum injury, and gets an instant answer on how to finish chest day safely. To him, it is the ultimate personalized Google search.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Thiccy breaks down why Bitcoin is just the Clavicular of finance.

He explains how history proves that movements, celebrities, and even financial assets are often just temporary tools. Society uses them as coordination mechanisms, lets them burn hot for a few years, and then completely discards them.

He points out how Clavicular acts as an avatar for young men who feel trapped with zero upward mobility, realizing that maximizing their looks is a path forward.

Once that avatar serves its purpose to channel the ideology, society moves on and they fade into irrelevance.

Thiccy warns that Bitcoin is doing the exact same thing for fiat debasement. It serves as a massive alarm bell signaling that trust in institutions is completely lost.

But the moment people find a better asset to express that view, Bitcoin could easily become totally irrelevant.

[Umar @umar_xbt]

Thiccy reveals the depressing math behind internet status and cultural decay.

You can try to quantify how much your influence is worth, but you have to view it as having a fifty percent annual hyperinflation. If you are gone for just one year, your relevance hits zero.

The sad nature of the cultural game is that society rewards you for being extreme, turning you into a temporary mascot for a collective thought. You serve as an avatar for a giant movement.

But the second that movement plays out and society evaluates what truths are worth retaining, it has absolutely no use for you anymore, and you fall straight back into irrelevance.