I am launching The Sibal Brief, a space for longer reflections on foreign policy and global affairs from an Indian perspective.
I will continue posting shorter observations here on X, while using this newsletter for more structured analysis on India’s strategic choices, global power shifts and the emerging multipolar order.
Subscribe here:
https://t.co/i4FYuOXXqi
Young Americans feel more threatened by AI than young Chinese. Why? It starts with the fundamentally different economic outlooks and job prospects for young people in China and the US.
https://t.co/U63aMNob5a
This is a terrific, thoughtful piece by @sreemoytalukdar where he agrees & disagrees with my thesis that India must 'de-Americanise' its grand strategy to be a great power on its own.
Sreemoy hits the nail on the head: "greatness can’t be achieved at a bargain by hitching a ride and skipping indigenous capacity building."
India does about 36% globally, of the crucial labelling work AI depends on. Yet we will be denied Anthropic’s latest versions by US law - and GOI won’t be able to even utter a syllable.
Stunning data.
AI is anything but artificial. Utterly dependent on human labour.
The Modi government has crossed the 2nd year of its 3rd term.
Per our India Reforms Scorecard, the government has completed 2 of the 30 reforms we track; below the pace of its first 2 terms.
https://t.co/72UoUIqezZ
A social commentary on how trillionaires are really made: "In 2017, my team at Oxfam predicted that the world would see its first trillionaire minted within 25 years. In 2024, we conservatively revised our estimate to less than a decade." https://t.co/JJvZropsrk
#BIG BREAKING: Cabinet reshuffle likely Sunday or Monday. Home minister Amit Shah met President Murmu Thursday and suggested either day for reshuffle.
Big inductions could include:
Former RBI guv and principal secy to PM Shaktikanta Das. Full cabinet berth likely.
Nirmala Sitharaman likely to be moved to HRD.
Dharmendra Pradhan and Hardeep Puri likely to be shown the door.
Shiv Sena could be rewarded for bringing in six MPs to the NDA fold. MP Shrikant Shinde could get a cabinet berth.
Anurag Thakur could come back with a full cabinet berth.
Meerut MP Arun Govil could be inducted. Prabhu Ram come to investigate who stole his chanda ahead of the UP polls?
Pankaj Chaudhary, UP strongman and MoS Finance required for UP elections next year. Could be dropped from cabinet.
The Punjab AAP turncoats to be rewarded. One berth assured between Raghav Chadha and Ashok Mittal (Lovely Professional University). Coin still being tossed.
Previous turncoats now discovering they come with an expiry date. Ravneet Bittu likely to be replaced by Tarun Chugh, RSS strongman who will bring heft for Punjab polls.
Nitish Kumar still carries weight. Likely to be inducted.
Shiv Sena MP Pratap Rao Jadhav could be divested of MoS Health which could go to Sanjay Dina Patil, one of six turncoats who defected from the Uddhav Thackeray Shiv Sena but kept the BJP on tenterhooks till the very end. We now know why. Jadhav gets to keep AYUSH.
Manohar Lal Khattar likely to lose Power portfolio.
Khajuraho MP Vishnu Datt Sharma likely to be inducted.
Janardhan Singh Sigriwal, MP from Maharajganj in Bihar likely to be inducted.
In addition, half a dozen MoS likely to be shown the door.
Busy weekend ahead.
Indian Trade Minister Goyal on US trade deal
"Until framework of getting competitve advantage [is finalized], we cannot enter into force US deal"
"The day [we get competitive advantage], the deal is on"
Lessons for India from the war on Iran
*India should expand the capacity of its strategic petroleum reserves;
*Diversify its energy sources;
*Protect its strategic autonomy so that it can withstand diktats from foreign powers more effectively;
*Restore the balance in India's WA policy--alignment with any particular power in a region rife with conflicts is counterproductive;
*And be ready to play a bigger diplomatic role as a peacemaker when conflicts directly threaten its interests and rise.
American hegemony is not collapsing only because China has risen. It is also weakening because the US is damaging the very institutions and values that made it powerful, argues Martin Wolf.