Subu Trade

Data-driven, multi-strategy trader. Trading large trends, key themes, & smaller opportunities in between.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Since 1957, any random day for $SPX has been higher:

• 1 year later: 72.8% of the time (+8.8% average)
• 6 months later: 68.9% of the time (+4.3% average)
• 3 months later: 66.1% of the time (+2.1% average)
• 1 month later: 61.6% of the time (+0.7% average)
• 1 week later: 56.7% of the time (+0.2% average)

This is the baseline.

Without this benchmark, forward-return statistics are meaningless. They tell you nothing about how bullish or bearish a signal really is.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

NASDAQ up 12 days in a row!

This is historic momentum, and was bullish for both the NASDAQ and $SPX

$QQQ $SPY

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Large Speculators are RECORD net-long Bitcoin.

This breaks the previous record from September 2023, before Bitcoin rallied.

$BTC

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

NASDAQ 100 is up 8 days in a row, with a total gain of 9.4%!

Momentum is strong, and this is bullish for the NASDAQ in the next few days and weeks

$NDX $QQQ

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Market breadth jumped.

For the first time in 4 months, the S&P 500's McClellan Oscillator is above 50

We've seen 11 similar cases before, and 10 of those 11 saw $SPX higher a month later. Average gain +3.2%

H/T @TheMarketStats

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

S&P 500 is up 6 days in a row, with a total gain of +6.9%

This only happened 9 other times, and $SPX was consistently higher 6-12 months later.

Average maximum drawdown in the next year was 9.3%

h/t @Norseman1 @RyanDetrick

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Large Speculators are extremely net-long Bitcoin.

Such extreme positioning was last seen in 2023, before Bitcoin rallied.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

$SPY Put Volume spiked on Friday.

Previous spikes came close to marking bottoms for the S&P 500.

Will this time be different?

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Energy sector $XLE Short Interest is at the highest level since 2008.

Energy stocks are being squeezed higher

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

$GLD (gold ETF) is Down 9 days in a row.

It has never gone Down 10 days in a row before.

H/T @Mr_Derivatives

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

https://t.co/Z5A7CdrWX9

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

S&P 500's Daily Sentiment Index is at 22, the lowest since last April's crash.

Similar depressed sentiment readings came close to marking bottoms for $SPX

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

@CyclesFan Good point

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

$SPY volume today jumped to the highest since last November's bottom.

Are we getting closer to capitulation? ⬇️

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Total Put/Call Ratio jumped to 1.12

The last 10 spikes came close to marking bottoms for $SPX

Will this time be different?

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

@RyanDetrick @Todd_Sohn @MacroCharts Great roundup, Ryan!

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

From the AAII Sentiment Survey:

Cash Allocations is at 14.19%. Investors are holding the least cash in 4 years.

This happened 3 times in the past 20 years: late-2017, Jan 2020, late-2021.

Each case preceded significant market volatility and losses for $SPX

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

From the COT Report:

Asset Managers dumped a record amount of S&P 500 futures this week

Even more than during the COVID crash

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Time to buy Indian stocks? 🇮🇳

India ETF $INDA has seen RECORD outflows over the past 2 weeks.

Even more outflows than during the COVID crash.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Gold ETF $IAU just saw record outflows ⬇️

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

The past 30 trading days have seen massive outflows from financials.

$XLF outflows are now on par with May 2022.

Even in the middle of the 2022 bear market, $XLF first bounced, before heading lower.