@AyusoValue@2_contango@thevilthatmendo Counterintuitive isn’t it. Suez felt pain when the Red Sea “closed” as less West > East arb and then AG/West became more of a V trade. You’d think Suez were set to gain but the opposite happened.
@AyusoValue@2_contango@thevilthatmendo Red Sea worth a watch too, if we see more Owners/Charterers going through, that’s a further support for Suez (at detriment to Vs)
@2_contango@thevilthatmendo And given how strong the East is on Suez (helped by clean up) with AG/East going from 130x77.5 up to w110 I don’t think any sane Owner will ballast COGH which is what has killed the TD20 over the last month. Not going to the moon yet but it’s the building blocks
If you look at the TD20 / TD3 spread for Dec it averaged in at above w40 and spot print is circa w9 (which shouldn’t be sustainable). TD20 Jan was always doomed given how cheap the Vs were back in Dec when the prog was traded. Should start to see a reversal of this as we get towards Feb but still needs some work.
@ed_fin This is where we see the small ships start to kick on. You could get 2x Suez very close to that (maybe even less) without wearing that itin risk (almost zero fat). Come on the small ships
@2_contango Feb cargoes USG/UKCM v unlikely to go on Vs now (also why go short at that money). Feb should hold more support for “small ships”, as they catch up
Quite a spread looking back a month. Vs up 97% whilst Suez down 20% and Afra down 24%. While I agree all the headlines (ignoring wildcards) suggest Vs will benefit the most, smaller ships should have some more potential than many are making out, given rates are down month on month.
I don't think there was much point in coming in today. Busy start to the week but any potential has been taken out by activity levels dropping off at the back end. #freight#oil#shipping#oott
Happy Friday... Better week on VLCCs but still trying to work out how none of the positivity has trickled down to Suezmaxes and how rates remain flat at w52.5 for TD20 (let's ignore the w50). #oil#oott#freight#shipping#bear