Michael Sullivan

Bitcoiner | Engineer | Writer

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

I once thought that my obsession with Bitcoin was my most autistic trait.

But now that I'm using data and AI compute to better understand the emotions/moods of humans I realize I may have transcended into a higher level of autism then I'd previously thought possible.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

I don't really need to account for it so much as observe it.

I tracked these exact users over the entirety of their posting history, so you can see how their language is changed back in the retail era comparatively to the institutional era over time.

You can watch how much the narratives they talk about shift, and the things they got more euphorically excited about in previous cycles.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Sentiment is lower now then during the bottom in 2022.

One of my favorite ways to visualize this is by looking at the rate of "optimism" in Bitcoin OGs language over time... but what is more striking is the engagement rate.

Exact same users.

Deteriorating engagement.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@StevenG28745597 It's an absolutely beautiful time to buy, sentiment is total garbage but I remain as bullish as I was back then 😂

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Ironically, Bitcoin is now up since I was claiming it was a great time to buy on Friday and that we'd "never dip below $100k".

You can call me an idiot all you want, but optimists always win in the end.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Follow me for more financial advice!

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

We sure can.

I've said a lot of stupid things (and had a lot of fun bull posting around $100k).

I've literally analyzed my past tweets and looked at all the stupid stuff I've said, using trends/narrative analysis and stuff over time.

Even wrote about how I am an idiot here:

https://t.co/6YLlxqSiD5

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

100%

There will eventually be a rotation back, simply a matter of time... But it could be a long matter of time.

Very hard to predict.

One of the most interesting things I was exploring recently was the rate at which AI was mentioned across the Bitcoin community, and it's continually been rising very consistently since 2023.

This is definitely not a short-term trend.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@HodlFlorida @JoelHodlman I'd be pumped to see you Joel... but I'd be more pumped for you to have your baby 🧡

[Vince (HodlFlorida) @HodlFlorida]

We are going live tomorrow at 12 Noon EST for The Hodl Report!!

@SullyMichaelvan will be joining me to talk about Bitcoin sentiment and whatever else comes up!

@JoelHodlman might make it, he might not 🤷🏻‍♂️

Join us! 👊🏼

The Hodl Report Live https://t.co/fIgJjDmvw9 via @YouTube

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@LibertyBTC People are going to be very proud of the buys made in the current era in 2030 🤝

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

I looooved the vibes during 2022.

I was earlier and still learning so that made things much more exciting. The community was also much less fragmented then it is currently too and that makes a big difference.

There are a handful of different sentiment indicators that are pretty different right now then 2022 now that I'm looking more closely too.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@DomokunNakamoto Likewise, people are quite mad but I think it serves as a great reminder of what we are doing here 🤝

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Bitcoin FUD feels convincing right now for one simple reason:

The market is angry.

Like, historically angry.

And angry crowds overweight risks and mistake emotional certainty for clear thinking... which makes all the certainty around the 4-year cycle especially interesting.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@WalkerAmerica Somebody should study this with data and autism 👀

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@KKeim6 It's surprising how much I'm seeing people just fighting each other on the timeline right now.

I remain incredibly bullish/optimistic and reject being too heavily influenced by public sentiment.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@thepowerfulHRV I feel similarly.

I post a disproportionate amount about treasury companies because I think they are incredibly interesting (and continue to) but I'm a Bitcoiner first and foremost.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@sealarkbtc Dude. I'm going to have to do a narrative analysis on each one of these phrases 😂

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@ajorgenseburner @_Checkmatey_ Well now I'm for sure going to have to do a narrative analysis of the phrase "Bitcoin is dead" 😂

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@JM_speakss The fear fuels me, I only stack harder and get more optimistic.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@OdiousDebt It's exactly that "manipulated" mindset that comes up more often when we are angry about price action IMO.

It certainly hurts watching AI stocks rip right now since so many of us are technology bulls, but I'm as bullish on the orange coin as ever.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@SatoshiNagonna This is a great way to think about it, people have been complaining about low vol... well, maybe the vol isn't going to be as low as it was once thought to be.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Bitcoin may not be going parabolic... but the terrified DMs sure as hell are.

Bullish.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@valerijatrades1 Oh dang, I didn't realize I just had my chart upside down 🙃