This was all you needed to pay attention to to spot the incoming flush.
The character of the latest $BTC pullback had changed.
Every previous long-liquidation flush inside this range was absorbed.
Open Interest reset. Support held. Price recovered into another high.
This time, longs were flushed and OI dropped, but the recovery produced a lower high before BTC lost $63.7K.
The liquidations are not the important part.
Itโs the fact that BTC could not recover after leverage was cleared.
Most people make trading far more complicated than it needs to be.
This was nothing more than simple pattern recognition.
$BTC MVRV is currently 1.21.
Previous bear market lows:
2018: 0.69
2022: 0.75
MVRV compares Bitcoin's market value with its realised value, showing how far price sits above or below the network's aggregate cost basis.
That puts the current reading roughly 60% above 2022 and 75% above 2018.
Volatility is compressing and cycle extremes are becoming less severe, so I personally could see MVRV forming a higher low this time.
But based on the historical anchors alone, Bitcoin has not reached the same level of capitulation as either previous cycle.