Sung Jun Bae

Gigachad Korea. 7+ years of investing.
Financial mesmerizer, unknown chess player
Follow for some Korean exposure

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

So what happens if Ukraine starts attacking refineries with drones again now? lol Is Trump incapable of thinking one move ahead?

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

Trump said the diesel problem was caused by Ukraine bombing Russian refineries, but now he's lifting restrictions on Russian diesel exports. That makes perfect sense. lol.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP ANNOUNCES DEAL WITH PUTIN FOR RUSSIAN DIESEL SUPPLIES

President Trump says he held a “highly successful” discussion with Vladimir Putin, securing an agreement for Russia to supply diesel to U.S. and global markets.

According to Trump, Russia will deliver over 300,000 tons immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and another 1 million tons thereafter.

The announcement comes amid tight global diesel supplies and elevated fuel prices.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

Moderna is now trading at levels from the previous Great Pandemic.. What the hell is going on? This makes no sense. Have they cured every type of cancer or something? $MRNA

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

Meanwhile, Anthropic is saying stupid shit again while secretly trying to cut their spending.. AI slowdown, and now what, AI abuse? lol. They've decided to ban random users as much as they want.

[Jane Manchun Wong @wongmjane]

Anthropic may start banning people for bullying Claude

Their upcoming Usage Policy prohibits “sustained and needless abusive or cruel behavior toward our models”

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

Maybe he should've thought about it before saying he was the house.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BESSENT HIRES TRUMP'S FORMER FED BOARD PICK, JUDY SHELTON, AS ADVISER - CNBC

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

You know, Elon tells the truth maybe 10 times a year.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@zerohedge Only a fool would give them money

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

I mean, I don't understand why people behave like this.. It doesn't matter whether OpenAI's stupid ARR is $50 billion or $70 billion.. That's not actual profit. OpenAI has zero earnings on the books. Surprise.

They're spending way more than they're bringing in anyway, so they're bleeding, but nobody talks about that. Because there's a $1 trillion-plus IPO at stake, along with the livelihoods of all the people tied to the countless AI trades associated with it.

OpenAI is spending over $100 billion a year on compute and running a $50 billion annual cash flow deficit. They have two years left.

This won't change unless memory prices go back to where they were before, and OpenAI will be done for. That's it. It's simple math, and all they've come up with to make up for it is simply saying that revenue could grow another 10x from here..

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

That was really fast. How the hell did this guy block me in two minutes? lol @firstadopter

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

lol okay, nice.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

lol okay, nice.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

No, the important thing is that even though they had plenty of time to expose the media's mistake and correct the situation, OpenAI did nothing. Well, they could conveniently argue that it wasn't their responsibility, but those false headlines helped boost their IPO valuation, and they actually did boost it to $1.4T.

They also triggered rallies in stocks associated with OpenAI, like Oracle. And now, coming out and quietly brushing the whole thing under the rug by saying that they can reach that same number by the end of this year and that it's not a big deal would probably be even worse.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

Are there really people who trust these guys when they're raising new funding less than 24 hours after yesterday's whole fiasco? lmao

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

SOFTBANK TO RAISE UP TO $100B FROM GULF INVESTORS: FT

CEO Masayoshi Son has held talks in recent weeks with senior figures in the region, including in the UAE.

The money would fund a new AI fund that buys companies and uses AI to improve their operations.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

The crazy part is that $AMD is about to face dilution equivalent to 20% of its market cap, with 320 million shares, but for some reason, nothing is happening, and it's trading as if nothing is going to happen.

Of course, there's no chance they'll dump those shares, but this is obviously a massive event for AMD, and it's a huge amount of money.

Dilution is dilution. It's massive dilution for existing shareholders. This is genuinely a huge joke.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

Maybe this is the puzzle we missed. $META has warrants to buy 160 million $AMD shares at $0.01, and the final tranche vesting condition is for AMD's stock price to break above $600. And that means $96 billion.

OpenAI has the same kind of agreement. Now I understand why AMD has exploded like this.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

No, that's not a nothingburger lol. People don't understand because this space is completely broken. They're doing $50 billion in annual revenue? Their annual spending is $100 billion. They're running a $50 billion annual FCF deficit for each of the next five years, their cash reserves are being depleted, and they won't even last another two years. On top of that, they need to spend more than $150 billion a year on compute. Those are their own words.

[The Psycho Analyst @TheRealBirnbaum]

The OpenAI revenue news is not a nothing burger. It’s one of the most bullish things I’ve ever seen.

This company had basically no revenue four years ago and now does $50B. We’ve literally never seen this before with them and Anthropic.

They’re bigger than almost every company in the world.

Dumbest selloff I’ve ever seen.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

By the way, after the OpenAI headline dropped, bonds moved meaningfully, and I think this might be the clue.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

I'm just saying this too, but the long-drawn range box is about to end, and tomorrow KOSPI just happens to be closed, and then it'll crash on Monday.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

KOSPI fell again today, and let's see, foreigners have now been selling for 8 of the last 9 days. They net sold $1.5 billion today as well. I mean, I'm wondering if everyone is even looking at the same page.

And this is the result of the ghost town over the past two months, and because SK Hynix's buyback, the only thing that has been buying KOSPI for the past two months, is about to end. Yeah, I guess nobody could have known that any of this was going to happen. Wow.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

KOSPI fell again today, and now foreigners have been net selling on 7 of the last 8 days. They sold quite a lot today, over $2 billion, and now the box I drew is about to end. Probably nothing will happen..

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

I don't want to force things to fit like this, but since mentioned the 9 days, I'll say it: recently, foreigners have been net selling KOSPI for 8 of the last 9 days. Of course, it's just a coincidence, and I'm only saying it for fun. lolll

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

What I don’t entirely understand and honestly find pretty hilarious is that the $70B OpenAI ARR figure was released on Dev Day, on September 29

How did we go 9 days without anyone from OpenAI coming out and correcting the figure? For over a week now they’ve let people believe ARR was $20 billion higher than it really is. What does that say about OAI?

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

This will probably be really fun.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

So this is pretty simple: it's one of two things. Either the broken KOSPI makes a comeback, or the U.S. market suddenly goes, "Oh my god, look at KOSPI," and then realizes, "How did we not see this?" and crashes into the ground late.

and I don't think KOSPI is going to make a comeback. Of course, it's already been a ghost town for two months, and everyone trading KOSPI knows that.

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

By the way, GameStop is going up again..

$GME

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

I looked into GameStop a bit over the weekend. Yeah, that. Anyway, here's what I found. The recent drop below $20 is starting to look like a whipsaw. You guys know GameStop has basically turned into a bond now, right?

They're trading at almost book value. $4.8 billion in cash, 4,700 Bitcoin, 43 million shares of eBay = $4.9 billion. Current market cap is $11 billion, and Cohen also bought $26 million worth this month.

And I'm starting to see GameStop slops showing up in my feed.. so I think there's no reason not to start paying attention to it again now.

$GME

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

You know, it's classic.

$QQQ

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

And remember, all of this started with classic? Imagine it finally hitting RSI 30 to 70 and then sinking, like a complete idiot.

$QQQ

[Sung Jun Bae @sungjunbae0]

You know what, I don't care about the ARR whatever. I just think the fact that these guys are preparing for a $1 trillion-plus IPO by saying they're going to achieve 10x revenue is a scam in itself.. This whole space is just a joke. That's the only way I can see it.