Supun Fernando

2 Samuel 7:8-13

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@SriLankaTweet https://t.co/j0UwEhNYAK

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

#DIESEL buses? Urge the public to conserve fuel? Is this sustainable development 🤷
If sustainability is truly the goal, why not EVs or at least PHEVs? #SL deserves policies that reduce fuel dependence, not reinforce it.
#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@Reuters https://t.co/p70ycWQCt9

[NewsWire 🇱🇰 @NewsWireLK]

The Colombo Magistrate’s Court has ordered the release on bail of Yoshitha Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was arrested by the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC).

The Magistrate ordered that the suspect be released on three sureties of Rs. 5 million each, while also imposing a foreign travel ban.

The order was issued by Additional Magistrate Lahiru Silva after considering submissions made by CIABOC officers and the defence counsel.

Rajapaksa had appeared before CIABOC earlier today (17) following a notice issued in connection with an ongoing investigation related to his involvement with the Sri Lanka Navy and the British Royal Naval Academy. He was subsequently taken into custody after questioning. (Newswire)

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

https://t.co/gsUS4edrtO

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@business https://t.co/Z0i02f6Xi3

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

I warned about this exact issue earlier the signs were always there.

https://t.co/JH8JycQTwl

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

2/2 be paid by those who sold the dream but by an entire nation.
The warning signs were visible long ago. Some chose wisdom but majority chose emotion.
Reality is now doing what it always does: exposing the difference.
#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

1/2 It turns out that slogans aren't economic policy, emotions aren't strategy & wishful thinking isn't governance.
When vision is lacking & deception becomes the fallback plan, the illusion may survive for a while but eventually reality sends the bill.
Unfortunately, that won't

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@Dailymirror_SL https://t.co/WXw6rp1ob6

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

https://t.co/21HLYRDAEO…
1/4 #SL should be proud of the post-crisis reforms that strengthened the country’s macroeconomic framework, particularly the enactment of the Public Finance Management Act and the Central Bank Act. Those were painful but necessary corrections after years

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@business https://t.co/Z0i02f6Xi3

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

A dangerous indirect impact: rentals are inflating Colombo’s housing market beyond local affordability. If this bubble bursts, the fallout will be severe. #SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@business https://t.co/O4mL5GlXwR

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@newswireplus @NewsWireLK Seeing the repercussions of “Renaissance” economic revolution through gambling disguised as online gaming. One regime dreamed of turning #SL into a #Macau. Now the small minds are pushing the cyber version of it 🤷🏽‍♂️Oh 🇱🇰😭
#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@NewsWireLK Excellent move! 👏For real impact, only EVs should be allowed inside the gardens. No exceptions for ICEVs. Otherwise, the environmental goal will be lost.Strict enforcement can set a strong example for eco-tourism in #SL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@CBSL heroics cannot be repeated 🥵 @IMFNews tranches finally in the coffers. What now 🤷#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

Win? Definitely 👏 Monetary stability up⬆️ Growth down⬇️

If the medicine is the same, will changing only the wrapper cure the patient? 😭

Temporary applause. Long-term instability 🤷

#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

#DIESEL buses? Urge the public to conserve fuel? Is this sustainable development 🤷
If sustainability is truly the goal, why not EVs or at least PHEVs? #SL deserves policies that reduce fuel dependence, not reinforce it.
#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[News.lk @newsdotlk]

“Lanka Metro Transit” Metro Bus Service in Colombo City to Start in August
#SLTransport #Metrobusservice #Colombo #SriLanka #Newsdotlk

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@NewsWireLK Demand drops when power is cut 🤦🏾‍♂️ වැරදිලා 🤷

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

https://t.co/VokuLV4Hi3

[NewsWire 🇱🇰 @NewsWireLK]

The Board of Investment of Sri Lanka (BOI) has launched a new digital investment platform aimed at attracting foreign investors by offering direct access to 30 structured, project-ready opportunities across multiple sectors.

The platform, titled “Ready to Invest”, is now live via readytoinvestsl. com

According to the BOI, the platform features investment opportunities across eight key sectors, including Tourism and Leisure, Manufacturing, Transport and Logistics, ICT, Innovation and Tech Park Development, Agriculture and Agro Processing, Urban and Mixed-use Development, Aviation, Ports and Maritime Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy and Sustainability.

The BOI said the initiative is designed to connect global investors with projects that are already structured and prepared for international investment partnerships.

Highlighting Sri Lanka’s investment outlook, the BOI noted that the country recorded 5% GDP growth in both 2024 and 2025, while foreign direct investment inflows reached US$ 1.06 billion in 2025, marking a 73% increase compared to the previous year.

It also stated that US$ 1.9 billion worth of BOI-approved projects are ready to commence operations.

The BOI further emphasized that Sri Lanka allows 100% foreign ownership in most sectors and guarantees the repatriation of capital and profits.

The agency also promoted Sri Lanka’s strategic Indian Ocean location and skilled English-speaking workforce as key advantages for investors. (Newswire)

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

Win? Definitely 👏 Monetary stability up⬆️ Growth down⬇️

If the medicine is the same, will changing only the wrapper cure the patient? 😭

Temporary applause. Long-term instability 🤷

#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Gayan Lakmal Alwis, CFA @theGayan]

BREAKING: IMF approves USD 695 Mn as Sri Lanka Clears Double Review

@IMFNews Board completed the combined 5th and 6th Reviews under the EFF, releasing USD 695 Mn.

It’s the largest single disbursement so far - as it bundles two reviews (two tranches), into one.

This is because 5th review was deferred from Dec 2025 to early 2026 following the need to reassess the program after Cyclone Ditwah and opting for a separate Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI).

Sri Lanka has now caught up, clearing both reviews in one go. Performance was generally strong.

But Middle East tensions and the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah have reshaped the outlook.

As per IMF:
• Growth is cut to 3.0% for 2026, down from 5% in 2025, due to higher oil prices and weaker tourism.
• Inflation climbs from -0.5% in 2025 to average 5.0% in 2026. End-2026 inflation climbs to 6.1%.
• Current account swings from a 1.6% of GDP surplus to a 0.5% deficit.
• Fiscal policy eases with 2026 primary surplus target drops to 1.4% of GDP, from 5.4% in 2025, funding a temporary relief package and Cyclone Ditwah reconstruction.
• From 2027, the Govt. reverts to the 2.3% of GDP primary surplus target.
• Two continuous criteria were missed - (1) no new external payment arrears, and (2) no new import restrictions.
• FX reserves projected to rise to USD 8.6 Bn by end-2026, from 6.8 Bn.

IMF emphasise that:
• Monetary policy should continue prioritising price stability - @CBSL should be prepared to act if inflation keeps ticking-up
• Greater exchange rate flexibility and gradually phasing out the BOP measures is critical to rebuild external buffers

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

Monetary had no option but to try an unconventional patch to contain fiscal missteps, while fiscal continues down the same path, by incompetence or design.
Temporary fixes are no substitute for discipline & accountability. #SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Gayan Lakmal Alwis, CFA @theGayan]

An Auction to Remember (or Forget?)

T Bill yields broke out across the curve following the 100 bps @CBSL policy rate hike.

Weighted Average Yields for 91, 182, and 364-day T Bills jumped by 118, 143, and 134 bps, respectively - the sharpest single-week move in the recent past.

Things have flipped completely from last week:
• 91 days: +118 bps → 110% accepted (vs. +5 bps → 71% last week)
• 182 days: +143 bps → 32% accepted (vs. +2 bps → 41% last week)
• 364 days: +134 bps → 33% accepted (vs. 0 bps → 13% last week)

The 91-day stands out. PDMO accepted LKR 71.2 Bn against 65 Bn offered (an over-acceptance of 110%). It's likely that they wanted to accept what they could at the least possible cost, since the 182 and 364-day maturities were even more expensive.

The 364-day tells rest of the story.

Last week, PDMO held it flat at 8.49% with a low acceptance ratio of 13%. This week, they let it move 134 bps to 9.83%, but still, only 33% was accepted.

Auction bid-to-cover dropped to 1.23x. Although the overall fill rate was 68%, if you strip out the 91-day over-acceptance, only 32% (LKR 24 Bn out of 75 Bn offered) was raised across the 182 and 364-day tenors.

Given the high cut-off rates and low acceptance levels, it's worth questioning why PDMO would:
- accept bids at such high yields?
- to raise only a fraction of the amount offered?
- in the midst of a 100 bps CBSL policy rate hike?
- when a massive T Bond auction is due the next day?
- while the Govt. is supposed to be sitting on an over LKR 2 Tn cash pile?

I do want to write about PDMO's auction acceptance strategy, but I'll leave that for a separate post.

Is this the beginning of a new hawkish cycle, or just a knee-jerk reaction to the CBSL rate hike?

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@newswireplus @NewsWireLK https://t.co/WXw6rp1ob6

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

https://t.co/21HLYRDAEO…
1/4 #SL should be proud of the post-crisis reforms that strengthened the country’s macroeconomic framework, particularly the enactment of the Public Finance Management Act and the Central Bank Act. Those were painful but necessary corrections after years

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@newswireplus @NewsWireLK #SL is “curing” once again 🙏❤️
But how many times will we celebrate temporary patches? 😢
No prevention. Just endless cycles benefiting a few through chaos, while the same calibre keeps running this wonderful nation.
#SLWakeUpAndBeWise #SLBeEnlightened #UnitedForSL ✊❤️🇱🇰

[Supun Fernando @supunfdo]

@newswireplus @NewsWireLK https://t.co/i8HlAwLneK

[Bloomberg @business]

The central bank met with bank treasurers late last week and took measures to align the rupee interbank rate with the rate being offered to bank customers, Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said https://t.co/0tdcJJjw6C