I admit that my enemies are smart and that I am stupid. But their intelligence has limits, while my stupidity does not. And for this reason, I will win.
My takeaway from $PURR call: keep mNAV b/w 0.9 & 1.1. Lower bound bid PURR, upper bound bid HYPE.
Wont let premium run rogue when bullish (I would but I donโt work there lol) & reinforces my theory that gamma sq unlikely but would track HYPE gains + smol premium. Still bullish!
@Globalflows Was nice to learn price or time nature of deal tranche. TL;DW either 1.5x deal price of $9.38 (so ~14) for > 20 of 30 days, or Dec 2nd, whichever is sooner, to unlock. So current selling likely not related. Also my takeaway is 0.9x mNAV is bid on PURR so good r:r here
Great job!
@Globalflows Was nice to learn price or time nature of deal tranche. TL;DW either 1.5x deal price of $9.38 (so ~14) for > 20 of 30 days, or Dec 2nd, whichever is sooner, to unlock. So current selling likely not related. Also my takeaway is 0.9x mNAV is bid on PURR so good r:r here
Great job!
Highest conviction trade rn is $HYPE trades 100+ by end July. I have OTM $PURR calls. Iโm not 1% as smart as Capital Flows but I think HYPE will lead PURR and not gamma squeeze (donโt think there is juice/positioning for that). Send it tho :)
Charts for fun, do not tail me ๐
@Wild_Randomness Have you noticed the sheer number of stocks that have failed at the $120-ish level this year? Bizzaro world, Iโm sure some astro chad knows whatโs up
Blue line is ideal sweep of equal lows & reclaim. Probably happens tonight but positioning slowly is easy and time horizon is a month++, not days :)
Hyperliquid
@FrankBerti7 You have time on your side so if HYPE does go past $100, youโll do great on the trade
My invalidation is if price breaks the low set in early June (low 50โs)
Highest conviction trade rn is $HYPE trades 100+ by end July. I have OTM $PURR calls. Iโm not 1% as smart as Capital Flows but I think HYPE will lead PURR and not gamma squeeze (donโt think there is juice/positioning for that). Send it tho :)
Charts for fun, do not tail me ๐
@FrankBerti7 Yes, if HYPE goes $100+, PURR will be between $14-16โฆPURR outperforms on the way up because of mNAV. That could mean $14 or $16 or $18 based on the premium but even if it trades at a discount it should be over $11.5 if HYPE is over $100
Blue line is ideal sweep of equal lows & reclaim. Probably happens tonight but positioning slowly is easy and time horizon is a month++, not days :)
Hyperliquid
Highest conviction trade rn is $HYPE trades 100+ by end July. I have OTM $PURR calls. Iโm not 1% as smart as Capital Flows but I think HYPE will lead PURR and not gamma squeeze (donโt think there is juice/positioning for that). Send it tho :)
Charts for fun, do not tail me ๐
@CryptoCronkite I was interning at an oil refinery during that summer. Soaking wet with sweat at 110F while weighing 120 pounds was still less painful than watching Brazil get hit that match lol
Daily RSI lower than it was during the COVID selloff. Price swept HTF level and had decent reaction. There is no R:R to shorting here. Flat is acceptable but wicked mean-reversions are good opps if your risk is well defined.
Iโm long, I think we bounce significantly (7-15%)