Novak Djokovic played a sad violin for the primitive Wimbledon crowd tonight after winning and reaching the final of the biggest tennis Grand Slam.
No one can stop this guy now!
The chances of your fighting rooster turning on you and opening up your femoral artery then bleeding to death on the spot are very low, like 1 in 8 billion, but never quite zero.
Just landed in the Middle East as Iran-Israel are supposedly on the verge of war. Such timing.
Quick thoughts:
- Crypto flush entirely driven by war headlines plus ofc liquidations. $BTC dropped 5%, alts a gnarly 20%-40% before bouncing.
- Events seem to be a miniature and lower odds replay of Russia-Ukraine.
- This may feel like a dual replay of Feb/2022, as the Fed is also getting more hawkish (they will not cut three times in 2024 any longer). However, unlike 2022 this is relatively priced in (maybe 1 cut rather than 2).
- Study February 2022 to know what to expect if things go wrong.
- War has not started yet.
- Threat seems to be serious. Trying to ascertain how serious by talking to field experts.
- If war starts equities going much lower (spoos -5%?), and so are alts.
- If war does not start and we see positive headlines everything rips and BTC thrusts into ATHs.
- Feeling comfortable heavy on BTC spot, though BTC would also drop if war takes place. $58K likely if so.
- I'm very light on alts and not interested in buying for now (missed the liquidations, which is where I'd normally go in).
- Don't see how war between Israel and Iran would represent the beginning of WW3. People are tripping as usual.
- Military conflicts in the ME historically result in immediate shocks to global markets, primarily through disruptions in oil supplies. Shocks tend to be short-lived and have no long-lasting impact on risk assets.