Synthetic

Trading | AI

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

If you ever wanted to see a real options portfolio during the July crash, here's my AI heavy account. 20k -> 500k -> 120k, all in 7 months.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

I don't think it's about earnings being priced in. Rather, we're seeing that markets run on sentiment. When sentiment was euphoric around May, the stock couldn't go high enough.

Since then we've had two earnings that performed better than expected. Despite that, the stock is still down from June highs.

We could be seeing new highs in the future, but sentiment would have to change. When that happens, no one knows.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

MU new lows despite blowout earnings and guidance. Everything now in the price

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

$QQQ almost at ATH. Looks like we might break through this month after almost four months of sideways movement.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

With options, timing matters. Here's August for me, where IV was still very high at the beginning of the month. Got hit with a high IV drop as the market was largely flat. Not the best month.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

CPU names, which ran so hard today, are showing much the same results - their options are priced a lot lower compared to the last few months.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

A lot of AI names have recovered, but option IV is still very low. It's a good time to enter.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

Very strong opening day for the week $QQQ. We might see a breakout above ATM soon.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

Huge pump on several names at the end of the week. Wonder who's buying.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

Seems like we're getting quite a bounce on $QQQ premarket. IV on various options is still low, so this is a good entry.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

Is anyone buying the rate hike dip?

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@TheProfInvestor The price isn't necessarily higher, because IV on some of those options has dropped significantly.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

Are we getting the reverse Aschenbrenner now?

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@CKCapitalxx He can only get liquidated if he used margin again.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@LyleDaly @LumeBTC You'd have to average in such a way that your yearly withdrawal is 10%. If the market goes up more than 10%, you'd not withdraw everything, creating a buffer for slower or down years.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@LyleDaly @LumeBTC You won't be getting 10% every year, but if you're willing to go lower in some years, you'll still get 10% on average.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

If there's actually a sell-off in AI stocks tomorrow, we'd be looking at one of the best times to buy.

Developers are basically saying that AI is too good, so we need to slow down a bit.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@combonnation @EhrmantrautCap_ IV has dropped pretty substantially.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@GAndersonTrades It's similar to the November to March period.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

The current IV on many AI stocks is low. We've gone through a long sideways movement in the market and after the wild crash in July, August has been quiet.

IV has dropped significantly since the July peak and is now at one of the lowest levels this year. That makes this a good time to enter an options position.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@aleabitoreddit Here's the IV for the SNDK Jan 2027 calls.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@aleabitoreddit IV is way down over the last month.

[Synthetic @Syntheticx01]

@optionscjp I'm posting my losses.